Will Scouch (Scouching Report) Top 32 for the 2023 NHL Draft

[Rabid Ranger]

What makes that so "likely?"

Likely is the wrong word. Hindsight is a funny thing with these kinds of list though since so many prospects don't pan out as expected.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Billy Cristall over Michkov? What

 

[ChesterNimitz]

I get people stick up for this guy, but this list is completely amateurish. How can people actually take this person seriously for scouting advice is beyond me. Will is known for having random unknowns ranked better than some players that are actually known in other leagues.

Stick with the professionals folks!

You mean the same professionals who overwhelmingly had Wright as number 1 over all?

 

[Lou Bloom]

He seems to overrate all the undersized, skill players. Michkov at #7, Ritchie at #21, Yager at #28, Wood at #31, Dvorsky at #34, Ziemmer at #37, Allen at #53 and Barlow at #59 all seem incredibly low to me.

 

[Sinbad]

I would like to see how many people who bash his list have actually taken the time to view these players themselves. Is the criticism of his list based off the fact that it doesn’t align with your own personal opinions from watching these players or the fact that it doesn’t align with more notable prognosticators (Pronman, Peters, Wheeler, Button etc.).

I also enjoy listening to the draft opinions of the aforementioned media darlings but let’s be honest, if they were so good at player evaluations some NHL team would have scooped them up by now.

 

[MardyBum]

Scouching would have Lambert ranked #1 overall in this draft.

I love the bitterness

 

[MichaelFarrell]

I'm unsure how to approach a list like this, but I actually don't mind it since it's actually something worth talking about. Usually these rankings devolve into nitpicky contests about why someone like this guy more than the other; Mr. Scouch is just flat out saying some of your favs aren't worth that much.

Some observations I've noted from his broadcast last night:

1. His ranking of Michkov seems primarily based on question marks he has as a 5-on-5 player in pro hockey. Dominant on the powerplay, but is it the best way to maximize a, say, top 2 pick in this draft when you have guys like Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson and even Benson?

2. His Yager take: his motor isn't fantastic, and he has good skills in isolation but you can find other guys who do more on any given night.

3. Dvorsky is a really good shooter, but that's pretty much the only thing he has going for him. Everything else is a mixed bag based on his observation.

4. In general, if he thinks you are a good scorer but do not offer other aspects to the game/lack dynamic ability, he is likely not as high on the player as the rest of us are.

5. His view on the Q is really low, and based on recent results I cannot blame him. Quebec prospects are constantly busting and disappointing, and I think it starts from the grassroots who are behind the curve in developing younger players. But this is now sounding like me going off rather than him specifically.

6. Finally, he really don't like the defense, but that's probably in line with everyone else.

He completely overvalues undersized forwards who are clearly boom or bust

I would like to see how many people who bash his list have actually taken the time to view these players themselves. Is the criticism of his list based off the fact that it doesn’t align with your own personal opinions from watching these players or the fact that it doesn’t align with more notable prognosticators (Pronman, Peters, Wheeler, Button etc.).

I also enjoy listening to the draft opinions of the aforementioned media darlings but let’s be honest, if they were so good at player evaluations some NHL team would have scooped them up by now.

I have watched a lot of hockey this year. Including a decent amount of these players live (Fantilli, Brindley, Perron, Whitelaw, USNTDP) He’s overrating a ton of undersized forwards. Jayden Perron, Gavin Brindley, and Will Whitelaw are good hockey players. But, putting them above a guy like Brayden Yager or Calum Ritchie is just a bad call.

Furthermore, his comments about Hunter Brzustewicz and Lukas Dragicevic in his live stream kind of prove to me he hasn’t actually watched a lot of these players extensively this year.

 

[NatusVincere]

1. His ranking of Michkov seems primarily based on question marks he has as a 5-on-5 player in pro hockey. Dominant on the powerplay, but is it the best way to maximize a, say, top 2 pick in this draft when you have guys like Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson and even Benson?

And that’s not true. Michkov looked not at 100% after his injury the first games. But his last 3,4 games there was no doubt who Nevas best player was, in every situation (with 2 goals and 1 assist at ES alone). And it’s kind of funny that Michkov is being criticised for being already basically unstoppable when he's given more space and time… in pro hockey. Especially playing on one of the worst PP in the whole league. Btw, Neva lost all of their four last games without Michkov. They lost only one game in OT (!) with him. Talking about question marks in pro hockey…

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

And that’s not true. Michkov looked not at 100% after his injury the first games. But his last 3,4 games there was no doubt who Nevas best player was, in every situation (with 2 goals and 1 assist at ES alone). And it’s kind of funny that Michkov is being criticised for being already basically unstoppable when he's given more space and time… in pro hockey. Especially playing on one of the worst PP in the whole league. Btw, Neva lost all of their four last games without Michkov. They lost only one game in OT (!) with him. Talking about question marks in pro hockey…

This is all well and good, and my guess is as the season goes on his position on Michkov will change. From what I could tell, the list isn't even preliminary (wasn't initially intending to reveal it) so he absolutely has a lot of catching up to do.

I agree that Michkov at 7 is stretching it hard. Bedard and Fantilli I can see, with the former being dynamic and having rare talents while the latter is super easy to project as an NHLer, but beyond that........I like Sale, Benson and Carlsson a lot, also like the Cristall love, but there does come a point where the scoring instincts and consistency have to hold some water if the goal of the game is to win, which primarily involves....score goals.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He seems to overrate all the undersized, skill players.

You say that, but then right after:

Michkov at #7

Michkov is the epitome of an undersized, skill player.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

He completely overvalues undersized forwards who are clearly boom or bust

I have watched a lot of hockey this year. Including a decent amount of these players live (Fantilli, Brindley, Perron, Whitelaw, USNTDP) He’s overrating a ton of undersized forwards. Jayden Perron, Gavin Brindley, and Will Whitelaw are good hockey players. But, putting them above a guy like Brayden Yager or Calum Ritchie is just a bad call.

Furthermore, his comments about Hunter Brzustewicz and Lukas Dragicevic in his live stream kind of prove to me he hasn’t actually watched a lot of these players extensively this year.

I'll take it a step further, he has a clear bias towards players who he feels have traits that have been discriminated against historically: small, weird playstyles, unique backgrounds, non-white, you name it.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Doesn't Scouching look primarily at analytics when breaking down and ranking players? That would easily explain how his ranking can be so different from traditional lists.

He's got some decent content that is valuable for what it is. I don't think you can rely solely on Scouching to form an opinion on prospects, just like you can't rely any any other single source to form a strong opinion on them. This is just one piece of the puzzle.

 

[Lou Bloom]

You say that, but then right after:

Michkov is the epitome of an undersized, skill player.

Yeah, they were two separate conclusions from his list. He generally ranks undersized playmakers higher than the norm, the other point was just players I think he is too low on and wasn't meant as a follow up to the 1st point.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Doesn't Scouching look primarily at analytics when breaking down and ranking players?

He does, but then the conclusions he comes to based on the analytics are always whack. Like they don't actually go hand in hand.

 

[kp61c]

so michkov drops because he isn't dominating adults as a 17 old undersized winger? That's idiotic.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Long comment here.

Honestly, this list just does not make much sense to me at all. I understand highly rating prospects you believe in that might go against the grain, for instance I have Ryan Leonard as a top 10 pick right now. But, looking at this list I just don’t see what he is trying to do.

Obviously Matvei at #7 is ridiculous. But, Perron, Stenberg, and Brindley all ahead of Will Smith for instance makes no sense and I love Gavin Brindley in particular. Will Smith is clearly a teir (or several) ahead of these players and has a clear projectable path to the NHL with his skill-set. I don’t think Scouch is actually watching these players I’m sorry. And don’t get me started with the guys he’s ranked above Yager. I watch multiple Moose Jaw games literally every week because I love watching Yager and Mateychuk. There are 6-7 guys at the very max you could argue are better picks than Yager (I have him ranked #4).

I watch a ton of Kitchener games as well. Scouch claimed to not like Brzustewicz’ decision making claiming he makes a lot of mistakes. But, I’ve never seen that. Hunter’s decision making and puck moving ability are the best things about his game.

 

[Antiillafire]

Pretty surprised he has Molnar and Misiak that high.

 

[Realgud]

I like Will's work and will never complain about a list from someone who clearly watches a lot of games. The "professional" lists will look just as good (or as bad) in the future so this seething hate toward his list without any argument makes very little sense and is unfortunate to see on this forum.

I like some of the hot takes here but definitely disagree with many too, obviously. For example, I disagree with how he views Michkov but agree with how he views Benson. For Michkov, I think it comes down to one of his fault, in my opinion, where he tends to underrate elite talent. At some point you've got to go beside the stats and the possibly immature game a player's play and just rate a player based on his elite talent. You don't keep producing like this as an underager in every league and tournament without being a true high-end prospect. Even if Michkov doesn't play a perfect game right now, he's 17, he'll play in the KHL he'll learn a lot and you absolutely want to bet on a player like this. They are so dominant at every level offensively so they never had to learn to play "properly". Buchelnikov last year was also an example of what I'm talking about when it comes to him underrating elite skill-level. Nonetheless, I respect his work and I really like that someone takes the time to do what he does. It's good content and it brings discussion.

 

[King'sPawn]

If someone watches the games and has their own criteria they adhere to - provided a willingness to reflect upon and learn from errors - I have zero problem with it. And he provides free content. I respect sticking his neck out, even if I find his rankings disagreeable.

I also am putting less weight in rankings as a whole, so I don't get bent out of shape anyway. Players will have different paths and developmental arcs which affect their careers. A player ranked third, but picked tenth, may just have better factors affecting their growth than a player ranked second but picked fourth.

That's not to say rankings are meaningless. They're just limited. And I think we would do better to remind ourselves of that with all these rankings. In doing so, we can enjoy the chaos and variance that different rankings bring, and consider the different sources.

 

[Sweetpotato]

Michkov and Yager too low, Dvorsky and Allan not in 1st round? Be very curious to know the reasoning.

 

[ijuka]

So where's Reinbacher? NL isn't an easy league to play 1D in as a teenager.

Pretty close to tied with his teammate Arttu Ruotsalainen in scoring, and that guy was a point per game in AHL last season, and also played some NHL.

 

[Egresch]

I would like to see how many people who bash his list have actually taken the time to view these players themselves. Is the criticism of his list based off the fact that it doesn’t align with your own personal opinions from watching these players or the fact that it doesn’t align with more notable prognosticators (Pronman, Peters, Wheeler, Button etc.).

I also enjoy listening to the draft opinions of the aforementioned media darlings but let’s be honest, if they were so good at player evaluations some NHL team would have scooped them up by now.

Well, obviously I cannot talk about all prospects, but at least those from Slovakia I know. Molnar, Misiak just in no way should be higher than Dvorsky, Honzek, Ciernik or Strbak. You just cannot be serious to claim that.

 

[majormajor]

Doesn't Scouching look primarily at analytics when breaking down and ranking players?

Breaking them down, yes. Ranking, no. He talks in analytics but his lists always have tons of subjectivity.

 

[Czechboy]

I love this ranker... 3 czechs in round one. He's hired.

Jokes aside... I would have thought hunter B would be a first rounder.

 

[canuck2010]

You mean the same professionals who overwhelmingly had Wright as number 1 over all?

A little early to take that to the bank I think.