Will Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky's all-time goal record this upcoming season? He needs 42 goals

[bobholly39]

Alex Ovechkin 853
Wayne Gretzky 894
Goals needed to hit 895 = 42 goals

Ovechkin is now exactly 42 goals away from beating Gretzky's record. Will he break the record next season?

Ovechkin had a very unusual season for him last year. It's really a tale of 2 splits:

First 43 games - 8 goals, pace of 15 over 82 games. Everyone was saying he was "done". He didn't look good either.
Last 36 games - 23 goals, pace of 52 goals over 82 games. Also helped his team make playoffs, against all odds.

Before this unusual season for him, he actually scored exactly 42 goals the year prior too.

However - Ovechkin will be 39 years old when the season starts. Only once in the history of the NHL has a 39+ year old player scored above 42 goals in a season (Gordie Howe - 44). So it won't be easy.

Does he break the record this season?

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[Midnight Judges]

Less than 50% chance he gets 42 this season IMO.

 

[Satoru Gojo]

Based on his second half pace this past season I say yes

 

[orby]

I think he'll do it in the 25-26 season, then retire.

 

[TheGuiminator]

I expect him to have a bounce back season, yes even at 39.

I think he falls short by 2-5 goals, but still voted yes

 

[DitchMarner]

I think he'll be better than he was last season, but I don't see him hitting 40.

I say he scores 32-35 and then breaks the record in the first half of the next season. I previously thought he would break it very late in the 2025-2026 season.

 

[GRob83]

He'll get 41 for the tie and opening night tickets for the 25/26 season will be $50,000

 

[KevinFinnerty]

He'll do it

 

[jigglysquishy]

I don't think he will.

In 2023-24, he was the 10th oldest player in the league. With Pavelski, Parise, and Carter done he's now 7th oldest in the league. Goligoski, Bellemare, Giordano, and Suter are both UFAs, so he could potentially become the 3rd oldest player in the league.

Burns and Perry are the only older players under contract.

42 goals is a high mark in the league still, let alone someone who turns 39 in September.

I think the most likely answer is he hits in the first 15-40 games of the 2025-26 season.

 

[Kerberos]

Yes. And all 42 will be empty net goals.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

If Dubois gets his act together and puts in a solid effort as the teams #1C, then I think Ovy can get 40 next year.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

crazy that he could do it next season. I remember a decade and change ago how every time this topic came up people would sprint into the thread to hockeysplain how he'd have to pop off 50 goal seasons well into his 30 and it couldn't be done and blah blah blah. Now the finish line is right there for the taking.

 

[CanadienShark]

Likely not, but I'll go with optimism and vote yes. Come on buddy!

 

[tfwnogf]

I think he does it. He showed he can still score a bunch of goals last season after the all star break. He'll be super motivated to do it this upcoming season.

 

[rypper]

If he gets close, ie within 10, I think he will. Because you'll start to see cheesy stuff like teammates making hero passes so he gets empty net goals, or winning becoming secondary to getting him goals etc.

He'll park on the powerplay for the whole 2 min.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Not impossible and generally every time people have bet against Ovie he's proved them wrong.

I think he scores 30+ something goals this year and then another 20 something the year after. He'll finish with 907 goals or along those lines and retire

 

[Midnight Judges]

I think he falls short by 2-5 goals, but still voted yes

To my understanding, these two things are mutually exclusive.

What am I missing?

 

[tfwnogf]

To my understanding, these two things are mutually exclusive.

What am I missing?

They think that he shouldn't be able to do it, but know in their heart to never bet against Ovechkin cause he always does the impossible

 

[Toby91ca]

Less than 50% chance he gets 42 this season IMO.

Agree, I voted no, but wouldn't suggest it's not possible. 42 goals isn't a HUGE number that seems unreachable, but chances of it happening this year definitely seem to be less than 50%.

 

[MasterofGrond]

I think we probably see 35 from him, but I think the chance he does it is above 25%

 

[Superlative Soup]

If Dubois gets his act together and puts in a solid effort as the teams #1C, then I think Ovy can get 40 next year.

No it is then.

 

[Toby91ca]

They think that he shouldn't be able to do it, but know in their heart to never bet against Ovechkin cause he always does the impossible

Yes, but you said you think he'll fall short, but at the same time, said you'll think he'll do it

 

[tfwnogf]

Yes, but you said you think he'll fall short, but at the same time, said you'll think he'll do it

I didn't tho, re-read the posts again. F for effort, I'm disappointed in you.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

Don't think it happens this year.
But then again, I hope he never breaks it.

 

[Sky04]

He's going to break it either this season or the next.