Will Ovechkin break Gretzky's record in 1,487 games?

[Paper]

I don't care about empty net goals, scoring in the 80s, or anything else.

If Ovechkin breaks Gretzky's record will he do it in more or less games than Gretzky played? Gretzky played 1,487 games, scored 894 goals. Ovechkin has 872 in 1,449 games. Will he be able to score 23 in his next 38? He has 22 in his current 35 this year.

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[hamzarocks]

Yes he will

 

[Gains]

I'm not sure what the significance of the 1487 games is, given that Gretzky scored his 894 goals in 1479 games and didn't score in his final 8 games.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

It's close. I could see him doing it and want to believe, so voted with that hope mind.

 

[BB79]

scoring in the 80s,

I do. Goalies didn't look like Stay-Puft marshmallow men in the 80s, and were no where near as technically sound as today. Say what you will, but Ovechkin, even if it takes him longer, has had a harder road to reach 894. Far less support compared to the 80s Oilers offense as well.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I do. Goalies didn't look like Stay-Puft marshmallow men in the 80s, and were no where near as technically sound as today. Say what you will, but Ovechkin, even if it takes him longer, has had a harder road to reach 894. Far less support compared to the 80s Oilers offense as well.

But you can also say that the league changed the PP rules to limit Gretzky's goal scoring, and allowed clutch and grab to take over in the second half of his career, while they made multiple changes in efforts to increase goal scoring during Ovechkin's era.

That's why you really can only compare the numbers as they are and not play what if. If Ovi gets it, he gets it, no asterisks. Every player has unique challenges and advantages during their own era.

 

[Midnight Judges]

But you can also say that the league changed the PP rules to limit Gretzky's goal scoring, and allowed clutch and grab to take over in the second half of his career, while they made multiple changes in efforts to increase goal scoring during Ovechkin's era.

That's why you really can only compare the numbers as they are and not play what if. If Ovi gets it, he gets it, no asterisks. Every player has unique challenges and advantages during their own era.

Nah. We have hard data, and lots of it. It is basically objectively true to state that it was easier to score goals in Gretzky's era. Roughly 20% easier on average.

 

[Video Nasty]

I'm not sure what the significance of the 1487 games is, given that Gretzky scored his 894 goals in 1479 games and didn't score in his final 8 games.

Yep, people ignore this all the time.

They’ll just have to settle for him owning the record and being quickest to whatever total he ends up with.

 

[kugelbahn]

I think keyword is "break" here.
If OV scores 895 in 1487 games it will be obviously more goals than Gretz scored in 1487 games.
I will say yes.

 

[McFlash97]

I do. Goalies didn't look like Stay-Puft marshmallow men in the 80s, and were no where near as technically sound as today. Say what you will, but Ovechkin, even if it takes him longer, has had a harder road to reach 894. Far less support compared to the 80s Oilers offense as well.

If Ovechkin had to wear 30 pounds skates, had wooden sticks and didn't have the luxury of no 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 overtime he would be even harder to reach those Gretzky lofty totals. Your really off base there bro.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

If Ovechkin had to wear 30 pounds skates, had wooden sticks and didn't have the luxury of no 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 overtime he would be even harder to reach those Gretzky lofty totals. Your really off base there bro.

And yet scoring was statistically more frequent per game in the 80s. Funny how math disagrees

 

[McFlash97]

And yet scoring was statistically more frequent per game in the 80s. Funny how math disagrees

It's disagrees because the top level superstars were levels above what they are now. You notice how they had the same shitty goaltending in the 70s and lower scoring? Gretzky is the reason why the 80s literally went wild. The guy changed how hockey was played.

 

[YoRy]

If Ovechkin had to wear 30 pounds skates, had wooden sticks and didn't have the luxury of no 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 overtime he would be even harder to reach those Gretzky lofty totals. Your really off base there bro.

If he has a team like Edmonton in the 80's, plays 25 minutes a game against beer league goaltenders while chasing stats like Gretzky (who went on the ice when leading 5-0 for the sake of scoring a couple goals), even 1000 won't be a problem.

 

[McFlash97]

If he has a team like Edmonton in the 80's, plays 25 minutes a game against beer league goaltenders while chasing stats like Gretzky (who went on the ice when leading 5-0 for the sake of scoring a couple goals), even 1000 won't be a problem.

Buddy. Good for OV for eventually passing the all time goals record. Phenomenal achievement. However stop acting like you gave a shxx about the Oilers and Gretzky. Only fans who actually watched 99 play know Gretzky was unmatched. I think it's a pretty generous assumption that if Gretzky wanted to shave a few hundred assists off his record and pop in a hundred extra goals we wouldn't even be having this conversation. Gretzky pretty much did what he wanted. OV will empty net his way to the record. Good for him.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

It's disagrees because the top level superstars were levels above what they are now. You notice how they had the same shitty goaltending in the 70s and lower scoring? Gretzky is the reason why the 80s literally went wild. The guy changed how hockey was played.

Gretzky being responsible for creating a higher scoring environment doesn’t make sense mathematically either considering the size of the league.

Let’s take the 1981-82 season when Gretzky scored 92 goals. The Oilers led the league in GF with 417 goals in 80 games (5.21 goals/game). Second highest were the Islanders with 385 goals (4.81 goals/game).

The NHL had an all-time high 4.01 goals per game (post WW2). Even if you subtracted the Oilers entirely as if they never existed (417 GF and 295 GA), you would still have an average of 3.76 goals/game.

This is significantly higher than the highest average seen during Ovechkin’s career (3.14 goals/game in 2022-23), or any of the seasons between 1970 and 1979.

 

[Randyne]

I'm not sure what the significance of the 1487 games is, given that Gretzky scored his 894 goals in 1479 games and didn't score in his final 8 games.

That's not how it works.
He didn't score in his final 8 games not because he didn't want to score, he just couldn't.
So Gretzky career GPG is not .604 (how you are suggesting), it is .601

 

[Greatzsky 99]

I do. Goalies didn't look like Stay-Puft marshmallow men in the 80s, and were no where near as technically sound as today. Say what you will, but Ovechkin, even if it takes him longer, has had a harder road to reach 894. Far less support compared to the 80s Oilers offense as well.

Gretzky being responsible for creating a higher scoring environment doesn’t make sense mathematically either considering the size of the league.

Let’s take the 1981-82 season when Gretzky scored 92 goals. The Oilers led the league in GF with 417 goals in 80 games (5.21 goals/game). Second highest were the Islanders with 385 goals (4.81 goals/game).

The NHL had an all-time high 4.01 goals per game (post WW2). Even if you subtracted the Oilers entirely as if they never existed (417 GF and 295 GA), you would still have an average of 3.76 goals/game.

This is significantly higher than the highest average seen during Ovechkin’s career (3.14 goals/game in 2022-23), or any of the seasons between 1970 and 1979.

Yeah First page over thread about will Ovi overtake Waynes record in more less or the same amount of games, and its flooded with this fascinating debate over eras, going in circles, invading almost every thread, it makes me happy...


on topic, just guessing, same amount, the ultimate scenario would be 2 goals in game 1487 going to overtime and Ovi wins the game for capitals with hattrick and passes Wayne, for me at least.

 

[Golden_Jet]

He definitely could but it doesn’t even matter,
Scoring per game was higher in Wayne’s days.

 

[BallardEra]

Crazy part of the chase is how Ovechkin has had to catch Gretzky on the back end of his career.

From the start of careers until age 29 season:

For Gretzky:

706 goals in 895 games for 64.7 goals pace over 82 games


For Ovechkin:

475 goals in 760 games for 51.3 goals pace over 82 games


From age 30 and on until the end of his career, Gretzky scored 188 goals in 592 games.

26.0 goal pace over 82 games.

Since Ovechkin's 30th birthday, he's scored 397 goals in 689 games.

47.3 goal pace over 82 games.

 

[Video Nasty]

That's not how it works.
He didn't score in his final 8 games not because he didn't want to score, he just couldn't.
So Gretzky career GPG is not .604 (how you are suggesting), it is .601

What’s the fewest games it took someone to hit 894 goals?

 

[BallardEra]

Current career goals per game rate:

Ovechkin - .6018
Gretzky - .6012

 

[Randyne]

What’s the fewest games it took someone to hit 894 goals?

The right question which GPG is higher
894 in 1487
or
894 in 1486 (or less)
If Ovechkin decides to quit after scoring 894 in 1486 games, his GPG would be higher.

 

[AvroArrow]

I'm not sure what the significance of the 1487 games is, given that Gretzky scored his 894 goals in 1479 games and didn't score in his final 8 games.

If we ignore all the games where Ovechkin didn't score a goal, he's actually averaging more than 1 goal per game!

 

[BB79]

Yeah First page over thread about will Ovi overtake Waynes record in more less or the same amount of games, and its flooded with this fascinating debate over eras, going in circles, invading almost every thread, it makes me happy...

Well it was asked, and logically it's part of the debate whether you like it or not. Hell, let's kick it up a notch- If either guy played in their prime in the dead puck Devils trap era 90's would either be where they are now in the record books?

 

[BallardEra]

I don't think it matters either way. When all is said and done, people will just be quoting the final raw number that Ovechkin has set.

Ovechkin will have played 70-80 more games than Gretzky as well, assuming he retires after next season.

The chase will then be on for others to get to that final number that Ovechkin ends at.