Speculation: Will Ottawa give the Avs the #4 overall?

[Em etah Eh]

How about some insurance for both teams? Ottawa lets Colorado have the #4 this year. If the 2019 1st, finishes top 3, Colorado gets Ottawa's 2nd (pick 32,33, or 34). If the Pick ends up number 4 or later, Colorado gives their 2nd round pick? So essentially, whoever "loses" the gamble, still gets something back?

 

[as Pure as Evil]

like a lot have said already. I don't think Ottawa will give up this pick. the way the nhl is right now any team can turn it around on a dime. it might take a few shrewd moves. but it sounded like Hoffman was just a big distraction for the organization as a whole so they might do better with out him. they have brown and a couple others that could use more ice time. who knows maybe Duchene has a career year they still have weapons and if Anderson goes in to god mode like he usually does every 2 years then who knows where they will be in the standings

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

How about some insurance for both teams? Ottawa lets Colorado have the #4 this year. If the 2019 1st, finishes top 3, Colorado gets Ottawa's 2nd (pick 32,33, or 34). If the Pick ends up number 4 or later, Colorado gives their 2nd round pick? So essentially, whoever "loses" the gamble, still gets something back?

The Avs are gambling with house money at this point. We might win less, but we can't lose. The only team this idea really benefits is Ottawa.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Ottawa needs to have a direction. If that direction is trading Karlsson than it's really difficult to keep this years pick and essentially potentially the worst team in the league next year without your pick. I think if that's the direction they go they give up the pick and hope they can get some small sweetener from Colorado to get the 4th overall pick this year. It's possible The Avs prefer to have next years pick but I think they'd probably prefer 4th overall this year, and wouldn't mind giving up something small like say a 2nd round pick to make it happen.

From Ottawa's perspective lets assume both drafts(2018, and 2019) are identically equal. If you are certain you're a bottom 5 team next year what is the right decision mathematically? Well for simplicity sake lets say there's a 20% chance that Ottawa finishes in each of the 5 worst positions. The following are their pick odds

	1st Pick	2nd pick	3rd Pick	4th Pick	5th Pick	6th Pick	7th Pick	8th Pick
Last Place	18.5	16.5	14.4	50.6	0	0	0	0
2nd Last	13.5	13.0	12.3	33.3	27.9	0	0	0
3rd Last	11.5	11.3	11.1	13.2	37.7	15.2	0	0
4th Last	9.5	9.6	9.7	2.8	26.1	34.0	8.3	0
5th Last	8.5	8.7	8.9	0	8.4	34.5	26.7	4.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Now the odds of getting each pick if the odds of finishing in each of the last 5 places were identical would be the average of the possibilities

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]1st Pick[/TD][TD]2nd Pick[/TD][TD]3rd Pick[/TD][TD]4th Pick[/TD][TD]5th Pick[/TD][TD]6th Pick[/TD][TD]7th Pick[/TD][TD]8th Pick[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]12.3[/TD][TD]11.82[/TD][TD]11.28[/TD][TD]19.98[/TD][TD]20.2[/TD][TD]16.87[/TD][TD]7.0[/TD][TD]0.86[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
So if we assumed Ottawa had equal chance of finishing from last to 5th last next year they'd have a 44.93 chance of getting a worse pick, and a 34.5 chance of getting a better one. Along with a 19.98 chance of getting the same pick next year. Those odds would say if you assume Ottawa is a bottom 5 team next year, with equal chance of every spot then keep the pick this year. However with increasing value of picks I think I'd gamble the 45% chance of getting a worse pick for the 35% chance of getting a better one with a 12.3% chance of getting the 1st overall pick. Especially if I could get something small out of Colorado to make it happen.

As for the Avs side of things in an asset only world you could say the reciprocal of Ottawa's situation applies. But I'd suggest it doesn't. While Ottawa should be in an asset collection spot with the possibility of being bad on purpose or out of necessity(can't lose Karlsson for nothing) next year, and can afford to play the odds to try to get that 1 special prospect Colorado is on it's way up and could really use a 4th overall pick and a prospect like Zadina(if Montreal takes Kotkaniemi) now instead of playing the odds and waiting a year to possibly get a worse pick. If a player like Zadina is on the board I think Colorado would be very content with getting him right now.

For that reason I think it makes more sense for both teams to have the Avs have the 4th overall pick this year, though I don't believe that's what will happen. It would be an interesting game of chicken to see exactly how much Ottawa could pry out of Colorado to make that a reality. I'd suggest a 2nd round pick would be sensible, but like I said I expect Ottawa to keep the pick so I don't think it will happen

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Ottawa needs to have a direction. If that direction is trading Karlsson than it's really difficult to keep this years pick and essentially potentially the worst team in the league next year without your pick. I think if that's the direction they go they give up the pick and hope they can get some small sweetener from Colorado to get the 4th overall pick this year. It's possible The Avs prefer to have next years pick but I think they'd probably prefer 4th overall this year, and wouldn't mind giving up something small like say a 2nd round pick to make it happen.

From Ottawa's perspective lets assume both drafts(2018, and 2019) are identically equal. If you are certain you're a bottom 5 team next year what is the right decision mathematically? Well for simplicity sake lets say there's a 20% chance that Ottawa finishes in each of the 5 worst positions. The following are their pick odds

	1st Pick	2nd pick	3rd Pick	4th Pick	5th Pick	6th Pick	7th Pick	8th Pick
Last Place	18.5	16.5	14.4	50.6	0	0	0	0
2nd Last	13.5	13.0	12.3	33.3	27.9	0	0	0
3rd Last	11.5	11.3	11.1	13.2	37.7	15.2	0	0
4th Last	9.5	9.6	9.7	2.8	26.1	34.0	8.3	0
5th Last	8.5	8.7	8.9	0	8.4	34.5	26.7	4.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Now the odds of getting each pick if the odds of finishing in each of the last 5 places were identical would be the average of the possibilities

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]1st Pick[/TD][TD]2nd Pick[/TD][TD]3rd Pick[/TD][TD]4th Pick[/TD][TD]5th Pick[/TD][TD]6th Pick[/TD][TD]7th Pick[/TD][TD]8th Pick[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]12.3[/TD][TD]11.82[/TD][TD]11.28[/TD][TD]19.98[/TD][TD]20.2[/TD][TD]16.87[/TD][TD]7.0[/TD][TD]0.86[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
So if we assumed Ottawa had equal chance of finishing from last to 5th last next year they'd have a 44.93 chance of getting a worse pick, and a 34.5 chance of getting a better one. Along with a 19.98 chance of getting the same pick next year. Those odds would say if you assume Ottawa is a bottom 5 team next year, with equal chance of every spot then keep the pick this year. However with increasing value of picks I think I'd gamble the 45% chance of getting a worse pick for the 35% chance of getting a better one with a 12.3% chance of getting the 1st overall pick. Especially if I could get something small out of Colorado to make it happen.

As for the Avs side of things in an asset only world you could say the reciprocal of Ottawa's situation applies. But I'd suggest it doesn't. While Ottawa should be in an asset collection spot with the possibility of being bad on purpose or out of necessity(can't lose Karlsson for nothing) next year, and can afford to play the odds to try to get that 1 special prospect Colorado is on it's way up and could really use a 4th overall pick and a prospect like Zadina(if Montreal takes Kotkaniemi) now instead of playing the odds and waiting a year to possibly get a worse pick. If a player like Zadina is on the board I think Colorado would be very content with getting him right now.

For that reason I think it makes more sense for both teams to have the Avs have the 4th overall pick this year, though I don't believe that's what will happen. It would be an interesting game of chicken to see exactly how much Ottawa could pry out of Colorado to make that a reality. I'd suggest a 2nd round pick would be sensible, but like I said I expect Ottawa to keep the pick so I don't think it will happen

Great post and some solid statistical work to back it up. The math makes perfect sense.


I think a very small sweetner(Like Ottawa's 2019 3rd back) is probably a fair trade for both sides and probably the right approach to take to benefit both teams long term.


On the one hand I would like to see the Avs simply go all in on keeping the 2019 1st and take the risk of a Hughes/Kakko pick in 2019. On the other hand getting a sure thing pick with #4 like Zadina or whoever(Zadina wouldn't be my choice) in 2018 and thus a player that can potentially start helping us push forward right away cant be ignored either.



For the Sens it makes complete sense to give us the 4th pick I believe. Next years draft is a very deep one again, to the point right now where I suspect the difference between say 4th overall and 8th/9th overall isn't going to be a big difference. But like any draft the difference between 1st overall and 4th/5th overall would be massive. Give the Avs the #4 this year and take the risk on where that pick winds up. The negative side is the Sens end up being very bad but not truly bottom of the barrel and end up in that 7/8/9/10 range next year. A spot that again doesn't have a big difference to #4. The upside scenario is they bottom out, finish dead last and win the lottery to select Hughes at 1 or Kakko/Turcotte at 2/3.

Of course the other scenario is the long shot in which the Sens are actually so good they make the playoffs next year. In that scenario it would suck to have given us #4 this year instead of a 16+ 1st next year, but the Sens would have made the playoffs which I'm sure would be quite alright with Melnyk and Dorion and they wouldn't care about the 4 pick they gave us a year earlier anymore.

 

[tucker3434]

A 4 overall for a 1st next year plus a 2nd is a trade I’d make 99 times out of a hundred, but I think this might be that one time I wouldn’t. I know the odds of it being better are terrible. I just don’t really care.

 

[StreetHawk]

What are the early expectations of next year’s draft? I hear that it is top o heavy with C. If that is the case, and the sens have their choice after dahlin, Svechnikov, and KK are any of zadina, Hughes, Dobson, wahlstrom, or tkachuk better than getting a C?

You have 3 wingers, 2 of which are goascorers and a power forward who can put up numbers like his brother. Or 2 dmen who can move the puck. One lacks size but is an amazing skater.

If you expect to be in the bottom 3, and 2019 has a lot of C’s available then probably better t give up #4 this year.

For Colorado, if they get 4, I would take wahlstrom. Finalized their top 6 with Mac and jost at C and Landy and rats on LW. Add that goal scorer rhs. Could go zadina but I think the rhs tips the scale. Tkachuk, I would pass since they have landy who plays a gritty game. They have makar and Timmons on D and can still get D with their own pick.

 

[milehigh11]

For that reason I think it makes more sense for both teams to have the Avs have the 4th overall pick this year, though I don't believe that's what will happen. It would be an interesting game of chicken to see exactly how much Ottawa could pry out of Colorado to make that a reality. I'd suggest a 2nd round pick would be sensible, but like I said I expect Ottawa to keep the pick so I don't think it will happen

Colorado has no incentive to give anything extra to Ottawa. They either give us the pick in 2018 or they give it to us in 2019. We dont care. We are not throwing in extra picks. Its Ottawa's decision.

 

[EP to Kuzmenko]

Tough choice. Giving it up this year insulates you from giving up a possibly better pick next year and "rips the band-aid off"; however, it sends a bad message about intentions for the upcoming season.

Keeping this years means that they think they will have a better year next year. Keeping this years is more important to their future than this year. What if they bounce back a little and next year is pick 8oa and they don't win the lotto? 4oa this year has a better chance at being an impact than 8oa next year.

Also for giving this years 1st to get an asset back, Col may be willing to because If Ottawa keeps this years, then they may make moves to try and improve for next year and the 2019 could easily be outside the top 10. Don't discount what having a decent team with a top 3 defender can do. Anderson could also still have a strong season and get them to a bubble position.

 

[BB88]

Ottawa is about lock to be a bottom5 team today, and with that mess of theirs, including the lineup wouldn't be too surprised if they break some record(not a compliment).

I'd give that pick to Colorado and go for the franchise C next year.

 

[bukwas]

Or does the situation make Ottawa more likely to trade the #4 for a package that could help the team immediately rather than in 1-3 years? Especially if their goal is to bring in some talent and re-sign Karlsson?

I really can't imagine Ottawa being an attractive destination for free agents and possibly some of their own players headed toward UFA status.
Really they should be looking at wholesale changes and trying to put a fresh new positive stamp on the Ottawa Senators hockey club. That means a heavy injection of young players which are best obtained with draft picks.
The damage is done, no point trying to mitigate it now.

 

[tucker3434]

Ottawa is about lock to be a bottom5 team today, and with that mess of theirs, including the lineup wouldn't be too surprised if they break some record(not a compliment).

I'd give that pick to Colorado and go for the franchise C next year.

Colorado was a lock to be bottom 5 this year. So was NJ. I don’t think locks exist anymore.

 

[BB88]

Colorado was a lock to be bottom 5 this year. So was NJ. I don’t think locks exist anymore.

There's nothing positive going on in Ottawa, they've lost Brassard/Turris from their lineup, just gave up Hoffman for free, fans want the owner out, they want the GM out, their lineup is filled up with garbage contracts and Karlsson+Stone+Duchene, goaltending is garbage, coach is whatever.

Ryan, Boedker, Gaborik, Burrows, aijaijaijai.

I haven't seen a mess like this since I've watched NHL regularly.

 

[CraigsList]

I wonder if the Sens would give 4th OA + Pens' 1st rounder for Colorado's 16th OA and their 2019 1st back?

 

[Ouroboros]

It doesn't matter whether Ottawa have their pick next year or not. There is no desire or willingness from ownership or management to put a winning product on the ice - the goal is in Ottawa is clearly to get to the cap floor and let it ride, probably for the next 5+ years.

So what does it matter about Jack Hughes? He wouldn't change anything for the Senators. They aren't laying the groundwork for something better or 'rebuilding' - they are in stasis for the foreseeable future. Just trying to keep the wolves from the door for a few more years.

 

[Stuzchuk]

as per the latest news, there's no guarantee that OTT will be as low as 4 next years plus the draft seem to be a below average draft (but way too early to say), so my guess is OTT keeps number 4

plus, what kind of image do you throw to your team by giving away a #4..."you guys will sucks next year, we're giving away a top prospect because you are pathetic"

 

[Canadian Canuck]

No way. The lottery means anything could happen. Keep Zadina/Tkachuk

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

I don’t think they would. It would signal that they’ve already given up on a season that is still 3 months away.

 

[Sensung]

The Sens future hinges on EK. The decision on which draft pick to use will take place BEFORE they can be sure how the Karlsson situation will play out.

The Sens therefore have no choice but to take the pick this year.

 

[Dr Quincy]

How about some insurance for both teams? Ottawa lets Colorado have the #4 this year. If the 2019 1st, finishes top 3, Colorado gets Ottawa's 2nd (pick 32,33, or 34). If the Pick ends up number 4 or later, Colorado gives their 2nd round pick? So essentially, whoever "loses" the gamble, still gets something back?

I see no point for a team, especially OTT to make a deal like this. Makes no sense and is a gamble for them without much payoff.

 

[KPower]

Zero chance Ottawa gives up the 4th this year.

As bad as it looks now they could challenge for a playoff spot if everything falls into place. Stranger things have happened.

 

[Hmmm]

Yeah Vegas comes to mind

 

[mouser]

Ottawa needs to have a direction. If that direction is trading Karlsson than it's really difficult to keep this years pick and essentially potentially the worst team in the league next year without your pick. I think if that's the direction they go they give up the pick and hope they can get some small sweetener from Colorado to get the 4th overall pick this year. It's possible The Avs prefer to have next years pick but I think they'd probably prefer 4th overall this year, and wouldn't mind giving up something small like say a 2nd round pick to make it happen.

From Ottawa's perspective lets assume both drafts(2018, and 2019) are identically equal. If you are certain you're a bottom 5 team next year what is the right decision mathematically? Well for simplicity sake lets say there's a 20% chance that Ottawa finishes in each of the 5 worst positions. The following are their pick odds

	1st Pick	2nd pick	3rd Pick	4th Pick	5th Pick	6th Pick	7th Pick	8th Pick
Last Place	18.5	16.5	14.4	50.6	0	0	0	0
2nd Last	13.5	13.0	12.3	33.3	27.9	0	0	0
3rd Last	11.5	11.3	11.1	13.2	37.7	15.2	0	0
4th Last	9.5	9.6	9.7	2.8	26.1	34.0	8.3	0
5th Last	8.5	8.7	8.9	0	8.4	34.5	26.7	4.3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Now the odds of getting each pick if the odds of finishing in each of the last 5 places were identical would be the average of the possibilities

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]1st Pick[/TD][TD]2nd Pick[/TD][TD]3rd Pick[/TD][TD]4th Pick[/TD][TD]5th Pick[/TD][TD]6th Pick[/TD][TD]7th Pick[/TD][TD]8th Pick[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]12.3[/TD][TD]11.82[/TD][TD]11.28[/TD][TD]19.98[/TD][TD]20.2[/TD][TD]16.87[/TD][TD]7.0[/TD][TD]0.86[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
So if we assumed Ottawa had equal chance of finishing from last to 5th last next year they'd have a 44.93 chance of getting a worse pick, and a 34.5 chance of getting a better one. Along with a 19.98 chance of getting the same pick next year. Those odds would say if you assume Ottawa is a bottom 5 team next year, with equal chance of every spot then keep the pick this year. However with increasing value of picks I think I'd gamble the 45% chance of getting a worse pick for the 35% chance of getting a better one with a 12.3% chance of getting the 1st overall pick. Especially if I could get something small out of Colorado to make it happen.

As for the Avs side of things in an asset only world you could say the reciprocal of Ottawa's situation applies. But I'd suggest it doesn't. While Ottawa should be in an asset collection spot with the possibility of being bad on purpose or out of necessity(can't lose Karlsson for nothing) next year, and can afford to play the odds to try to get that 1 special prospect Colorado is on it's way up and could really use a 4th overall pick and a prospect like Zadina(if Montreal takes Kotkaniemi) now instead of playing the odds and waiting a year to possibly get a worse pick. If a player like Zadina is on the board I think Colorado would be very content with getting him right now.

For that reason I think it makes more sense for both teams to have the Avs have the 4th overall pick this year, though I don't believe that's what will happen. It would be an interesting game of chicken to see exactly how much Ottawa could pry out of Colorado to make that a reality. I'd suggest a 2nd round pick would be sensible, but like I said I expect Ottawa to keep the pick so I don't think it will happen

Good mathematical breakdown. One of the most important issues that isn’t easy to quantify mathematically is: What message do you send to your fans and ticket holders if you give up a #4 pick this year because you think you’ll be worse next year?

 

[The Abusement Park]

There's nothing positive going on in Ottawa, they've lost Brassard/Turris from their lineup, just gave up Hoffman for free, fans want the owner out, they want the GM out, their lineup is filled up with garbage contracts and Karlsson+Stone+Duchene, goaltending is garbage, coach is whatever.

Ryan, Boedker, Gaborik, Burrows, aijaijaijai.

I haven't seen a mess like this since I've watched NHL regularly.

For the most part I agree with you. If they trade EK for futures, woof... That team will not be pretty. But who knows. The main reason I think they'll be bad next year is that they won't have any player capable of doing what Mackinnon did this year and just take the team on his back; assuming they trade EK.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I don’t think they would. It would signal that they’ve already given up on a season that is still 3 months away.

Tbf if there's one owner who wouldn't care about the message he's sending to his fans it would be Melnyk.