Will OEL rebound?

[Gwyddbwyll]

But he's not doing the thing aging elite defensemen usually do, get more steady. He was more steady as a 22 year old. That's just bizarre.

Either you can say "that's bizarre".. or perhaps look at why he was steady back then?

As a 22 year old he was playing with Michalek, Morris, Klesla, Yandle, Stone, Murphy etc.. all he had to do in a Tippett team was follow that leadership. Now he has Lyubushkin and Tocchet and a bunch of veterans ekeing out their final paychecks. Not so bizarre when you look at it that way.

I dont think you're seeing the amount of covering he's doing. He's constantly watching his teammates and anticipating the next breakdown. That's what aging elite defensemen do. As they lose a step they gain a step in their heads. Unfortunately he's doing it too much and not getting forwards like he could. And after 10 seasons of depressing seasons playing with bro hockey colleagues, he's giving up on the play too often. We can all see he's a player in need of inspiration.

I have a hard time seeing how he can reinvent himself when his wrist/hands are worn down so his shot, one of his key skills that normally wouldn't dissipate much with just aging, is close to gone as an advantage.
His speed and mobility are greatly hampered after various knee injuries.

I just think this is hyperbole. "His shot is close to gone.. and his speed is greatly hampered" - you do make it sound like he's on a zimmer frame out there!

 

[Mangosteen]

https://thehockeywriters.com/golden-knights-pacioretty-trade-revisited/

OEL has the Pacioretty feel to it. Hopefully we can pull some magic out of a trade too.

 

[rt]

https://thehockeywriters.com/golden-knights-pacioretty-trade-revisited/

OEL has the Pacioretty feel to it. Hopefully we can pull some magic out of a trade too.

I think OEL has maybe 20% of that value. Ahaha. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[Mangosteen]

Thinking 50 percent. Was looking at similar situations to OEL. Pac was about to get run out of town by Canadians fans. Turned out well for both teams

 

[PainForShane]

The thing we're all not mentioning is that OEL is a truly exceptional passer. My first season tickets were in 2017-2018, the very first thing I noticed was that OEL would look up, take one stride if that, then fire the puck to whichever target he'd be aiming for, that person would then accept the pass on his tape and in stride and continue transitioning the play without even having to adjust his trajectory at all. It was nuts. After the first few games, I was like, 'I see why everyone loves Oliver, I think I am going to try to count the number of bad passes he makes over the entire year.' I got all the way up to 9. 9 bad passes all year in 41 home games. Completely bonkers.

So... I actually think we're asking the wrong question. The question shouldn't be, "Will OEL live up to his bloated contract?" Honestly, the answer is almost certainly not -- he's the 6th highest paid D-man in the entire league, ahead of guys like John Carlson and Victor Hedman (and everyone else), none of us would try to argue he's the 6th best D in the league.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

But, does OEL help our team even if he doesn't play all the way up to his contract? I think so. He's still a top 4 Dman with offensive upside and those players are hard to find. Even if you could find / sign a player like that, he'd be worth what, 5 or 6 mil? So we're overpaying OEL by maybe 2-3 million dollars a year. I am ok with that. He's also still only 28 and should be productive as a second-pair D for a few more years at least, very little chance he becomes the next Brent Seabrook imo. Honestly, we have bigger problems on our team that are worth fixing first

 

[RemoAZ]

I think we'd get the best value for OEL if he'd waive to play for the Oilers and Tippett could talk the GM into trading for him. Tippett will be on the hot seat and I'd bet he'd love to have one of his guys on D to help put them over the top.

 

[Jamieh]

I think we'd get the best value for OEL if he'd waive to play for the Oilers and Tippett could talk the GM into trading for him. Tippett will be on the hot seat and I'd bet he'd love to have one of his guys on D to help put them over the top.

I highly doubt Oiler's want that contract for their 2nd pairing. They need too many other players.

 

[PainForShane]

I highly doubt Oiler's want that contract for their 2nd pairing. They need too many other players.

Yeah... I don't disagree. I'd like to have an actual conversation with you about this honestly. You've gone out of your way to troll me before, if you start trolling again I'm out. But you bring up a good point worth discussing I think.

Edm has cap space especially if they don't re-sign RNH (no reason they should) and Barrie goes elsewhere like everyone thinks he will. You have to re-sign Adam Larson but that's what, 6-7m or so -- an additional 2-3m which you more than make up from not having either Barrie or RNH. Which means you have $10-12m more than enough to make a free agent splash, relatively easier because you'd think most NHLers would want to play with someone as talented as McD. Not only that, Oilers nation is frustrated by ANOTHER year of McDraisatl doing nothing in the playoffs and Canadian markets can make our summers look cool by comparison.

Edmonton Oilers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Oilers also need a goalie, we have a guy named Kuemper. Leafs need a goalie too but we're talking about the Oilers now. Funny how goalies matter in the playoffs don't you think? (sorry couldn't resist).

Anyway back to this particular discussion, Kuemps + OEL (with 1-2m in salary retention) for 3-4 high draft picks in the next 2-3 years? Makes sense for the Oilers. Not sure whether this is a good idea for us -- so many of our D are UFAs this year but for those who want to blow up the team this is not the worst way to do it.

Arizona Coyotes - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

To be clear I don't know whether this is a good idea for the Yotes. Goose, Hammer, Demers are all UFAs they are all top 4 on most teams. But for those of you / us who think it might be worth trying to blow up the team / leadership starting with getting rid of OEL... I mean the trade may make sense if you think our core is not good enough to win and depending on the return and how washed up you think OEL is. I reserve judgement at this time. But it makes sense for the Oilers and it may make sense for us as well

 

[Jamieh]

Yeah... I don't disagree. I'd like to have an actual conversation with you about this honestly. You've gone out of your way to troll me before, if you start trolling again I'm out. But you bring up a good point worth discussing I think.

Edm has cap space especially if they don't re-sign RNH (no reason they should) and Barrie goes elsewhere like everyone thinks he will. You have to re-sign Adam Larson but that's what, 6-7m or so -- an additional 2-3m which you more than make up from not having either Barrie or RNH. Which means you have $10-12m more than enough to make a free agent splash, relatively easier because you'd think most NHLers would want to play with someone as talented as McD. Not only that, Oilers nation is frustrated by ANOTHER year of McDraisatl doing nothing in the playoffs and Canadian markets can make our summers look cool by comparison.

Edmonton Oilers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Oilers also need a goalie, we have a guy named Kuemper. Leafs need a goalie too but we're talking about the Oilers now. Funny how goalies matter in the playoffs don't you think? (sorry couldn't resist).

Anyway back to this particular discussion, Kuemps + OEL (with 1-2m in salary retention) for 3-4 high draft picks in the next 2-3 years? Makes sense for the Oilers. Not sure whether this is a good idea for us -- so many of our D are UFAs this year but for those who want to blow up the team this is not the worst way to do it.

Arizona Coyotes - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

To be clear I don't know whether this is a good idea for the Yotes. Goose, Hammer, Demers are all UFAs they are all top 4 on most teams. But for those of you / us who think it might be worth trying to blow up the team / leadership starting with getting rid of OEL... I mean the trade may make sense if you think our core is not good enough to win and depending on the return and how washed up you think OEL is. I reserve judgement at this time. But it makes sense for the Oilers and it may make sense for us as well

You misconstrued my goalie argument last year. I wasn't saying you only needed your goalie to play average to be successful, I was saying you only needed an average goalie. Think Varlamov, an average goalie playing well.

The Leafs needing a goalie next. Make the case for them being better this year with Keumper rather than Campbell. Now do Oilers with Smith.

I personally don't think the Oilers lost because of defense or goaltending. They generated nothing and scored 1 goal in game one and 0 goals in game two. By not using their Cap money to improve their depth upfront I think they would be an even worse team.

 

[PainForShane]

You misconstrued my goalie argument last year. I wasn't saying you only needed your goalie to play average to be successful, I was saying you only needed an average goalie. Think Varlamov, an average goalie playing well.

The Leafs needing a goalie next. Make the case for them being better this year with Keumper rather than Campbell. Now do Oilers with Smith.

I personally don't think the Oilers lost because of defense or goaltending. They generated nothing and scored 1 goal in game one and 0 goals in game two. By not using their Cap money to improve their depth upfront I think they would be an even worse team.

So the Oilers lost because they don't have enough forwards and / or a decent bottom 6 (forwards)? And in the future getting better bottom 6 forwards is their biggest need? Rather than upgrading their no-name D or their 39 year old starting goaltender who had a career year? That's an interesting argument

 

[Jamieh]

So the Oilers lost because they didn't have enough forwards and / or a decent bottom 6 (forwards)? And in the future getting better bottom 6 forwards are their biggest needs? That's an interesting argument

That's too simple. The Oilers lost because their stars did not produce. Part of the reason for that is that their only threat to score was one single line, Winnipeg put everything into stopping that line. The other matchups were easy pickings. I don't think they need to add D when they already have Nurse, Larsson, Bear, Broberg, Bouchard, Russell, and maybe Klefbom. I think that's a serviceable D that wouldn't make sense to give up decent draft picks for high priced LD . Now Keumper would be a good move for them if price was reasonable.

 

[cobra427]

The thing we're all not mentioning is that OEL is a truly exceptional passer. My first season tickets were in 2017-2018, the very first thing I noticed was that OEL would look up, take one stride if that, then fire the puck to whichever target he'd be aiming for, that person would then accept the pass on his tape and in stride and continue transitioning the play without even having to adjust his trajectory at all. It was nuts. After the first few games, I was like, 'I see why everyone loves Oliver, I think I am going to try to count the number of bad passes he makes over the entire year.' I got all the way up to 9. 9 bad passes all year in 41 home games. Completely bonkers.

So... I actually think we're asking the wrong question. The question shouldn't be, "Will OEL live up to his bloated contract?" Honestly, the answer is almost certainly not -- he's the 6th highest paid D-man in the entire league, ahead of guys like John Carlson and Victor Hedman (and everyone else), none of us would try to argue he's the 6th best D in the league.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

But, does OEL help our team even if he doesn't play all the way up to his contract? I think so. He's still a top 4 Dman with offensive upside and those players are hard to find. Even if you could find / sign a player like that, he'd be worth what, 5 or 6 mil? So we're overpaying OEL by maybe 2-3 million dollars a year. I am ok with that. He's also still only 28 and should be productive as a second-pair D for a few more years at least, very little chance he becomes the next Brent Seabrook imo. Honestly, we have bigger problems on our team that are worth fixing first

Having only 2 top 4D is our biggest problem, getting rid of OEL leaves us with one. Get him a decent D partner and a different coach, he will be better. Is he over paid even if his numbers improve? Yes if you look at the dollars, but not really if you look at UFA salary structure. The CBA way under pays ELCs, under pays RFAs, and way over pays UFAs. If you compare his salary to other UFA D, he isn't that badly over paid especially if he improves his offensive numbers this year.

 

[PainForShane]

Having only 2 top 4D is our biggest problem, getting rid of OEL leaves us with one. Get him a decent D partner and a different coach, he will be better. Is he over paid even if his numbers improve? Yes if you look at the dollars, but not really if you look at UFA salary structure. The CBA way under pays ELCs, under pays RFAs, and way over pays UFAs. If you compare his salary to other UFA D, he isn't that badly over paid especially if he improves his offensive numbers this year.

Exactly this. None of the posters are thinking about this. Everyone who wants to trade OEL please look at our roster and when our current D will become UFAs.

Arizona Coyotes - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

As you can see, while OEL is overpaid, all of the rest of our D are also overpaid and old, many of them are UFAs this summer and may sign elsewhere over the summer as they probably want a chance at a cup. Hammer, Goose, Demers are all well regarded and imo top 4 D-men on most teams (incl Edm to use the concurrent conversation with Jamieh), even Toaster is a UFA who may well sign elsewhere depending on how much we offer to pay him.

Either way @cobra427 brings up a good point. Even if OEL is overpaid can we really afford to lose him given all of our other D are UFAs? The more I think about it the more I think the answer is no -- haven't necessarily come to a conclusion yet but going out of our way so that we have only Chychrun and Bush as the only legitimate NHL defenders on our team seems strange

 

[lanky]

Even if OEL is overpaid can we really afford to lose him given all of our other D are UFAs?

I'm thinking that Bill's answer to that question is probably Yes, at the right price. I think he relishes the opportunity to build a roster full of players that care. The cap space, money and draft capital that would come in an OEL trade would all be useful resources to him.

Also, if we suck in a year where Wright, Lambert and Savoie (3 projected 1 C's) are at the top of the draft class then at least we get compensated for sucking (unlike 2020 and 2021).

 

[Jakey53]

So the Oilers lost because they don't have enough forwards and / or a decent bottom 6 (forwards)? And in the future getting better bottom 6 forwards is their biggest need? Rather than upgrading their no-name D or their 39 year old starting goaltender who had a career year? That's an interesting argument

The Oilers lost because lack of forward depth. Even the best player in the game could not get them past the first round. You need depth in the playoffs, be it forwards or defense.

 

[Jakey53]

I'm thinking that Bill's answer to that question is probably Yes, at the right price. I think he relishes the opportunity to build a roster full of players that care. The cap space, money and draft capital that would come in an OEL trade would all be useful resources to him.

Also, if we suck in a year where Wright, Lambert and Savoie (3 projected 1 C's) are at the top of the draft class then at least we get compensated for sucking (unlike 2020 and 2021).

BA didn't take any deals for OEL last year, and many on this forum thought they were good deals. I thought they all stunk and so did BA, so if OEL is traded, hopefully we can get a good return. I would rather keep him myself, but let's see what transpires. Also, Chychrun had a great year and injury free, but what happens if he takes a step back?

 

[Jakey53]

Having only 2 top 4D is our biggest problem, getting rid of OEL leaves us with one. Get him a decent D partner and a different coach, he will be better. Is he over paid even if his numbers improve? Yes if you look at the dollars, but not really if you look at UFA salary structure. The CBA way under pays ELCs, under pays RFAs, and way over pays UFAs. If you compare his salary to other UFA D, he isn't that badly over paid especially if he improves his offensive numbers this year.

I agree. Our D well be quite different next year. Also, we have to consider that with no Gogo, how will that affect Chychrun's play? I thought OEL had a real good year, but OEL himself and BA thought otherwise, so if OEL can play better under a good coach I would be more than happy.

 

[Heldig]

Maybe the Canucks revisit trade talk. The Sedins are now involved.

Maybe OEL gives up the captaincy and just focuses on being a really good 2nd pairing guy and mentor to Soderstrom.

 

[Jagged Ice]

Maybe the Canucks revisit trade talk. The Sedins are now involved.

Maybe OEL gives up the captaincy and just focuses on being a really good 2nd pairing guy and mentor to Soderstrom.

When OEL said he would waive for Vancouver or Boston, is that still open or a one time thing though. Maybe the teams have changed
or maybe with RT gone OEL wants to stay put. With their cap issues in Vancouver this would still help them and the change of scenery is what he probably needs, but we'd have to inherit some shit along the way. Good luck BA.

 

[Canis Latrans]

When OEL said he would waive for Vancouver or Boston, is that still open or a one time thing though. Maybe the teams have changed
or maybe with RT gone OEL wants to stay put. With their cap issues in Vancouver this would still help them and the change of scenery is what he probably needs, but we'd have to inherit some shit along the way. Good luck BA.

He needs to waive for any move. It's entirely under his control minus soft power moves like the captaincy, ice time, or team direction.

 

[LittlePipes]

The answer is not “NO”, it’s “HELL NO”.
Trade him now.

 

[Sinurgy]

He definitely seems to have lost his spark. Kid was a passion player. Really a treat to watch. Now? He’s muted. Gray. Dull.

I remember I made those black and white playoff avatars where I photoshopped the players into bums\pwt\etc. and I remember being so excited when I was creating OEL's because I thought it fit his mojo perfectly. Not sure where that thread it but if you saw the image now you'd be like, yeah that's not OEL at all!

 

[PainForShane]

Wanted to bump this thread -- hope OEL kills it in Vancouver and that he and Garland each have a hat trick every time they play us next year. Garland especially!

 

[samabam]

Wanted to bump this thread -- hope OEL kills it in Vancouver and that he and Garland each have a hat trick every time they play us next year. Garland especially!

I wish OEL and Garland nothing but the best but I will not be rooting against the Coyotes.

 

[PainForShane]

I wish OEL and Garland nothing but the best but I will not be rooting against the Coyotes.

Notice I said 'next year'... won't be a permanent thing