Will McDavid score 100 points in the shortened 2021 season?

[Video Nasty]

Simple question and I’m posing it because 100 in 56 seems like an automatic knee jerk no, but it’s just enough in the realm of possibility that I think it is fun to think about.

Assuming complete health that allows him to play all 56 games, do you think McDavid will be able to reach the 100 point mark, despite the schedule being shortened by 26 games?

Some things to consider and why I cast a yes vote.

1. He has shown that he is a 100 point player. Going back to 2016-2017, he had 100 points in 82 games, 108 in 82, 116 in 78, and 97 in 64.

2. His best ppg for a contained season was last year with 1.52. It was 1.49 the season before. During the second half of 2017-2018, he had 63 points in his final 41 games. This means that he has a consecutive 2.5 season stretch, 276 points in 183 games, where he’s scoring at a consistent 1.51 ppg clip. He would need to score at a 1.79 clip to pull this off.

3. In order, the quickest he has achieved 100 points in a single season was 82, 77, and 66 games. He was 3 points away through 64 games last season so likely 66 games again.

4. The quickest to 100 points in recent memory has been the last 2 seasons. Kucherov did it in 62 games and Draisaitl did it in 65. McDavid slides in at 66 as mentioned before.

5. The long postponement of the prior season and coming back for only a few games of the play-in round and this shortened season should favor any lingering effects of the surgery that prevented him from being at 100%.

Considering that McDavid is likely good for 85 points in 56 games if he simply does what he has for nearly the last 200 games of his career, in combination with the different scheduling this season, do you think he can find that extra gear with full health and pick up another 15 points to reach 100 and reach the mark 10 games quicker than he ever has?

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[Tad Mikowsky]

I said no. I don’t think there’ll be any player topping 100 this year.

 

[DitchMarner]

Nah, that'd be ridiculous. He would require a 1.79 PPG. He may score 85.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

that would be a 146 point pace... McDavid is good but definitely not that good

 

[hamzarocks]

No he gets 77-85 and takes the ross/hart/lindsay

 

[Hockey Outsider]

If we make two key assumptions - 1) that he plays every game and 2) that his scoring rate of approximately 1.50 PPG from the past two seasons is sustainable - he has approximately a 4.8% chance of scoring at least 100 points next season. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

 

[Brucelenok]

The only player who could do it in recent memory would be Pre-Olympic Ovy, but even that would be a stretch.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I think he will get close. 90~ but no cigar.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think he'll break 90 but 100 would be absurd

 

[Regal]

If we make two key assumptions - 1) that he plays every game and 2) that his scoring rate of approximately 1.50 PPG from the past two seasons is sustainable - he has approximately a 4.8% chance of scoring at least 100 points next season. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

That's interesting. How are you calculating that?

I was thinking something along these lines. If absolutely everything goes right there could be a chance, but it'd be very unlikely.

 

[TheGuiminator]

Voted yes as a bold prediction

As he’ll be turning 24 entering this season, I predict this year will be the absolute peak form of McDavid.

Plus, he had plenty of time to heal & recover from his knee injury and considering the division he’s in, he’s likely gonna exploit the mediocrity of these Canadian teams’ defense.

With that being said, the circonstances of this upcoming season suggest that he will produce at a higher rate than his usual pace, which means the stage will be set for a perfect storm of a season.

 

[Video Nasty]

Voted yes as a bold prediction

As he’ll be turning 24 entering this season, I predict this year will be the absolute peak form of McDavid.

Plus, he had plenty of time to heal & recover from his knee injury and considering the division he’s in, he’s likely gonna exploit the mediocrity of these Canadian teams’ defense.

With that being said, the circonstances of this upcoming season suggest that he will produce at a higher rate than his usual pace, which means the stage will be set for a perfect storm of a season.

Summed up how I feel much more succinctly.

As for nearly everyone else, I respect the beat down given out in the poll results.

It’s bold and it’s crazy on the surface, but Guiminator laid out why for a 56 game stretch in this particular season for this particular player at this particular point in his career could see him score at what would be an otherwise truly ridiculous prediction of 146 points over a full 82 game normally scheduled season with the usual time off in between.

We’ve seen players like Crosby with 95 in his first 56 games in 2006-2007 in a 5.90 scoring environment.

Jagr with 94 points in his first 56 games (truncated due to injury) in a 5.50 scoring environment in 1999-2000.

Ovechkin with 90 in 53 and 91 in 56 in 2009-2010 in a 5.68 scoring environment.

As I mentioned in the opening post, Kucherov hitting 100 in 62 games two seasons ago and Drai and McDavid himself taking 65/66 games.

Is it really unconceivable for McDavid in a slightly higher scoring environment who can already score at a 1.5+ ppg clip for now half of his career to take the next step at an age where these types of players typically do under far less unusual scenarios?

 

[SotasicA]

NO.

Bad poll.

Will he even play 56 games is the more important question. He might play 35 games, who knows.

 

[ted2019]

If we make two key assumptions - 1) that he plays every game and 2) that his scoring rate of approximately 1.50 PPG from the past two seasons is sustainable - he has approximately a 4.8% chance of scoring at least 100 points next season. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

HO, you need to post it every thread there is on here as you are one of the very few that use logic in every post.

 

[authentic]

The only player who could do it in recent memory would be Pre-Olympic Ovy, but even that would be a stretch.

He had 89 in 54 in a clearly lower scoring season than these past few. Probably would've been closest. Actually Crosby as well.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

That's interesting. How are you calculating that?

I was thinking something along these lines. If absolutely everything goes right there could be a chance, but it'd be very unlikely.

Without getting too technical, scoring in hockey basically follows the Poisson probability distribution. If you know the two inputs (number of games played, and someone's scoring rate), this is very accurate at modelling the range of outcomes.

Of course, we can never know a player's scoring rate without absolute certainty, but we can make an educated guess. It should be more than adequate to come up with a ballpark estimate. I wouldn't argue with someone who says they think McDavid has a 4% or a 7% chance - but if someone said he had a 25%, or only a 0.01% chance, they'd be wrong.

(Here's a link to the article demonstrating this - http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Poisson_Toolbox.pdf - it's long, and complex in places, but it's interesting if you're into this type of stuff).

 

[Albatros]

He'll be closer to 50 than 100.

 

[MattySnipes]

I mean, if anyone can get 2 points per game, it's him. Not to mention he can have some games where he can rack up points too.

Realistically I dont think he'll hit 100. But that would be something man if he did. Really. So I'm rooting he does it. Either way I think he'll win Art regardless.

 

[Gurglesons]

McDavid likely sees a hit to his production IMO because of teams playing different match-ups then they normally would.

 

[spiny norman]

The lopsided result arrived quickly.