Ovi's longevity is gonna be hard to match, but it's also his consistency. 9 50+ goal seasons, and 13 total 40+ goal seasons (and very likely a 14th this year). Almost have his seasons in his career he's scored 50, and almost three quarters of his career he scored 40. The consistency with which he scores is what makes it so hard to replicate. Even with his age getting up there, his physicality going down (he's not running through guys the way he was in his early 20's, he's still obviously a physical guy, he's at like what... 100 hits this season?), his speed declining, the main skill that made him so good was his shot, which hasn't really gone away (helped heavily by a lack of shoulder/wrist injuries). Ovi breaking the record is a huge deal for the history of the sport. And I'd say it's more likely the player who breaks Ovi's record isn't even born yet rather than currently in the NHL.
Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?
- Thread starter Dead Coyote
- Start date
KrisLetAngry
MrJukeBoy
Too rich for me haha. Even at 8 to 1 for a solid 12.5 I'd say no.
But if you would like we can remember this in 12 years and see if it happens haha.
drktmplr12
Registered User
putting aside #8's longevity,
in the past 20 years #8's has played in 95.2% of games (1483/1557)
in the past 9 years#34 has played in 90.0% of games (621/690)
#34 needs to find a way to consistently play 82 games per season for the next 11 years and score 45 goals per year
i have my doubts that #34 plays to 37/38 years old
!remindme 11 years
in the past 20 years #8's has played in 95.2% of games (1483/1557)
in the past 9 years#34 has played in 90.0% of games (621/690)
#34 needs to find a way to consistently play 82 games per season for the next 11 years and score 45 goals per year
i have my doubts that #34 plays to 37/38 years old
!remindme 11 years
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Well you could start by looking for your answer at the start of this thread, a year and a half ago in the offseason
Ovi had 42g and Matthews had 40 that year.
Juxta Position
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then he probably shouldn't be playing if it's that serious. It can't be that serious that he played with it for almost 3 years and never had surgery. nagging injuries do not last that long without requiring something drastic to fix them, especially for a professional athlete.
He had a down year 2 years ago with 40 goals, and everyone was saying it was the wrist injury. Last year he scored 69, so his wrist must be A-OK now right? Apparently, that is not the case, I guess, as he has a down year again, and that darn limp wrist is acting up again. I call bullshit.
Sasha Orlov
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SeanMoneyHands
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Plural
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If you put peak Ovechkin and peak Matthews in a game on opposite teams, I think it's a coinflip which scores more. Same applies to series and even a full season. Goal-scoringwise, I'd say pound for pound their peaks are close and one could make a case for Matthews being better.
Careers is impossible to guess. Safe money is on no. What Ovechkin has done is unique. Not a single scorer in the history of the game has kept his goal-prowess so steadily for 20 years.
There are few players who I think are on par/better scorers at their peak. You could make a case for Gretzky, Bobby Hull, Brett Hull even, maybe Bure and Esposito. Howe(?) and for sure Lemieux (whom is probably the best at peak). I'd add Matthews to this group.
Here's the gist of it though. None of them outside Gretzky came particularly close to the totals 8 and 99 currently are. There is a reason for it and it's not peak ability. It's consistency over HEALTHY career.
Careers is impossible to guess. Safe money is on no. What Ovechkin has done is unique. Not a single scorer in the history of the game has kept his goal-prowess so steadily for 20 years.
There are few players who I think are on par/better scorers at their peak. You could make a case for Gretzky, Bobby Hull, Brett Hull even, maybe Bure and Esposito. Howe(?) and for sure Lemieux (whom is probably the best at peak). I'd add Matthews to this group.
Here's the gist of it though. None of them outside Gretzky came particularly close to the totals 8 and 99 currently are. There is a reason for it and it's not peak ability. It's consistency over HEALTHY career.
CapitalsCupReality
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TheDoldrums
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I don’t know if it’s his wrist. I just know it’s something, obviously, to miss time and fly to another continent for treatment. Could be a back problem, no one knows.
Hockey players play when they’re not 100% all the time. Wondering why he isn’t sitting out while he can still obviously contribute is really weird. About as weird as claiming it’s a phantom injury when he’s sat out two different stretches for it.
Selanne00008
Registered User
What's crazy is, the player may not even be born yet, or could be my son's age. Then they have to PLAY 20 years. I'll be 65 and just might remember this post.
AM34 will not catch him when Ovie, at age 39 is outscoring a Matthews age 27 season by a score of 37 to 29 (AND less games played).
You could argue this year for Matthews is truly PEAK age to dominate/accumulate stats as an NHL all-star.
Silky Johnson
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But that's just it. for some strange reason Matthews can't just have a down year, there has to be something there right? there's always some excuse for him when he's not producing.
I've never seen a player get as many free passes with a fan base than Matthews. he has 8 years of playoff mediocrity and it was wrist or his back or his poor little tum tum or Marner was bad, so that rubbed off on Matthews and made him bad, so that's Marners fault; it's ridiculous.
Maybe he's just not as consistently good as you Leafs fans think he is.
BallardEra
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Golden_Jet
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I wonder where Bobby Hull would’ve been,
Instead of getting a little over 300 in the WHA, at a 0.75 goals per game rate. (411 games).
Also only 70 game seasons for a lot of it, higher 70’s near the end.
Probably low 800’s ?
Matthews' wrist appears to be made out of paper maché. He's one good slash away from being a full time nostril model
Hockey Outsider
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I'd have to dig it up, but there was a statistical study published around 15 years ago, which concluded that 1 goal (or assist) in the WHA was approximately equal to 0.7 goals (assists) in the NHL. If you assume Hull would have maintained that level of performance in the NHL, he would have ended up just above 800 goals. I think that's a reasonable conclusion. He had enormous longevity, and won more goal-scoring titles than any player in history except Ovechkin.
CascadiaPuck
Proud Canucks investor.
This is where my head goes. He’s a lock for 500 and really good shape for 600. 700 - an incredible tally - would not be a shock. After that… injury luck/ longevity is the big issue. Ovechkin’s post-30 play has ruined people’s expectations for goal scoring.
