Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?

Since Matthews entered the league he is 32 goals ahead of Ovechkin.

Age 19-27 seasons for Matthews.
Age 31-39 seasons for Ovechkin.

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If he gets 60Gs and another rocket next year he has a legit shot as hell be at ~460 after 10 nhl years

He would need another 475-480 (assuming OV ends with 935 to 940 after next year). He will need to play 12 years and avg 40Gs per 82 games to get that.

Will not be easy, as he will need to be healthy 90% of the time and likely take advantage of his prime and high scoring environment to pop a few 50G seasons in there to habe a better shot.

His chances ate <10% as of now, but he is the best bet to take the record out of anyone in the NHL or coming into the NHL in next 5 years as of now.

If he cant bounce back and is a 35G guy moving forward he ends with 700-750G and is a lot back of OV
 
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I know Matthews was injured this year, but Ovechkin broke his leg, is 39 years old and still putting up likely a 40 goal season. That's truly legendary. Matthews needs to be a lot healthier (like play every game in a season healthy) the next 5 years and put up 60 goal seasons each year, otherwise he has no shot. I think it's impossible that he would age as well as Ovechkin.
 
i dont think so.

He doesn't have the durability. Hes only played a full season once, and came close to a second full season last year, The fact that he is on/close to par with the his numbers speaks more to the higher scoring era matthews career has been in IMO. He will go down as the best American goal scorer though, however he won't be playing into his late 30 like Ovi is. Ovi has had injury issues as well and lost games to lockout, but his goalscoring was always top of table, even during the low scoring era of his early career.

I personally think Matthews has 3-4 years left as an elite goal scorer because of injuries and age and at his current pace hes about a year behind Ovi in terms of pace and I dont see Matthews playing until hes 40-41 year. I dont even see him scoring 50 by age 34.
 
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I know Matthews was injured this year, but Ovechkin broke his leg, is 39 years old and still putting up likely a 40 goal season. That's truly legendary. Matthews needs to be a lot healthier (like play every game in a season healthy) the next 5 years and put up 60 goal seasons each year, otherwise he has no shot. I think it's impossible that he would age as well as Ovechkin.
If Matthews puts up 60Gs the next 5 seasons hell destroy the record

He would be at 700Gs at age 33 or so. Would get close to 1000 in that case

He wont be that good a goal scorer. Does not need to be to break the record, but if he did get 300G in his next 400 games the record would be there for the taking
 
Matthews' big flaw is his durability. But he's clearly more skilled at scoring goals than Ovechkin, plus he's more greedy and narcissistic too, which would help him in the long run to break the record. Matthws will also get to see all the attention that Ovechkin will get from breaking the record and knowing what kind of guy Matthews is, it could very well be something that will feed him in the long run. Matthews will need to dive deep into fixing his health concerns to have a good shot. Will be interesting to see if Matthews can bounce back next season...
 
I know Matthews was injured this year, but Ovechkin broke his leg, is 39 years old and still putting up likely a 40 goal season. That's truly legendary. Matthews needs to be a lot healthier (like play every game in a season healthy) the next 5 years and put up 60 goal seasons each year, otherwise he has no shot. I think it's impossible that he would age as well as Ovechkin.
Ovi is clear cut the best goal scorer in the NHL. Matthews isn't. Matthews will most likely finish as the best american goal scorer in NHL history, but he wont touch Ovechkins coming record., and hopefully Ovi can pop a few more above and beyond Gretzky's numbers
 
If Matthews puts up 60Gs the next 5 seasons hell destroy the record

He would be at 700Gs at age 33 or so. Would get close to 1000 in that case

He wont be that good a goal scorer. Does not need to be to break the record, but if he did get 300G in his next 400 games the record would be there for the taking
I think he could get 800 as his absolute peak. But he will get 700 easily assuming he is healthy enough. That's the biggest question mark regarding Matthews. He has the talent but the longevity is what sets Ovechkin apart from everyone else.
 
I think he could get 800 as his absolute peak. But he will get 700 easily assuming he is healthy enough. That's the biggest question mark regarding Matthews. He has the talent but the longevity is what sets Ovechkin apart from everyone else.
I expect 700G+ over his career for sure

Just not 700G by the end of his 32 year season haha.

I think If matthews is mostly healthy and plays another 11 years he adds another ~400G and gets right around 800G for his career by age 38 or so
 
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He probably will have surgery when the season ends - I think it’s a wrist issue as his shot is not the same this season.
Oh my god, the wrist thing again? Is his wrist made of dry spaghetti noodles or something? The excuses Leafs fans have for him are amazing.

The NHL is hard, but defaulting to some ridiculous phantom injury every time Matthews doesn't score 60 goals is laughable. Matthews is the best goal scorer in the NHL currently, but he's not that good that 60 should be the expectation year after year.
 
I don't see any world in which Matthews ages as well as Ovechkin. Because very few players in the history of the sport have done so. Nagging injuries and surgeries all add up, and decline can be steep when it happens.

Matthews will have a HOF career and end up with 700+ goals IMO, but I'd be surprised if he came within 150 of Ovi (who could reasonably have 925+) when all is said and done.
 
He won't even come close. How do people not understand how extraordinary Ovechkin's goal-scoring prowess this late into his 30's is? Matthews is a lock for 500 and a will likely hit 600 before tapering off.
People didn't think someone would pass Gretzky and bam Ovechkin is doing it.

It's possible id give it a 10 to 15 percent chance Matthews breaks it.
He is going to need some good scoring years though so when he gets older he doesn't have to hit such high numbers. This year a down year brings the odds down and any down year will continue to do so.

Another year or two of 60 goal seasons would be huge.
 
Five years ago I made a career forecast model. I projected that Matthews would reach 670 goals by age 34. If he actually does that, it would make him one of the greatest goal-scorers of all-time.

The model forecasted that he'd be up to 434 goals by the end of this season. He's actually at 397 (plus whatever he scores during the final few games).

Of course, there was no way of predicting that the 2020 and 2021 seasons would be shortened. If we retroactively back that into the model, he would have been projected to be at 407 goals through the end of this year. This is very close to where he's going to end up - 397 plus whatever he gets during the Leafs' final eight games.

It's hard to say whether Matthews reaches 700 goals (or beyond). What Ovechkin is doing is extremely rare and it's unlikely (though not impossible) that Matthews will have similar longevity. Anything under 600 goals should probably be considered a disappointment; anything over 750 should probably be considered extraordinary.
 
The excuses Leafs fans have for him are amazing.

The NHL is hard, but defaulting to some ridiculous phantom injury every time Matthews doesn't score 60 goals is laughable. Matthews is the best goal scorer in the NHL currently, but he's not that good that 60 should be the expectation year after year.

You realize he flew to Germany mid-season for treatment right? That’s not a phantom injury…
 

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