Kucherov factored in about 49.7% of his team's goals last season. He had 144 points out of ~290(?) goals for TB. They would not have been close to the playoffs without him. Colorado would probably still have made it. I think that's kind of the definition of "most valuable" but to each their own.
Will Kucherov get robbed of another Hart?
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So their impact is basically identical.
You can make a case for Kucherov last year. That's it, a case. Just like MacKinnon. Both guys were otherworldly in different ways.
This year neither will take it despite both being top players still. Draisaitl has had a better year and I expect him to win unless he goes ice cold for the remained of the year.
I agree, Draisaitl should win it. My point is that this year if MacKinnon still gets more Hart votes despite the Avs performing roster surgery and building a stacked team and (assuming) he does not actually outperform Kucherov in any meaningful stat, it would show voter bias as was suspected last year when (as you concede) their impact was basically identical but MacKinnon got something like 3/4 of the first place votes scoring less points on a better roster.
Video Nasty
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He might not even end up a finalist. When he doesn’t win this season, it doesn’t mean he was robbed—it means Draisaitl had the better season.
Someone forgot 2010!Ovi didn't get robbed at all and he both
But also, I don't get the Kucherov fanboying. Yea, last year's race was close, it wasn't the first close Hart trophy.
landy
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Agreed, McDavid is the difference. No other Hart nominee (sans Helle obv) gets 2nd line defensive matchups against him. And no other Hart nominee plays with the arguable best player on earth 50% of his total ice time, even if the other 50% is with traffic cones, its still better than whatever everyone else has to work with.
I didn't say I believed it was equal last year. I personally think MacKinnon was a bit better. My opinion and also the voters and the players. But it was close so I do see the idea kuch was very close and could have a case. It was lopsided, but I saw a clear edge mackinnon. I know all the stats and every point the kuch side has so there is no sense repeating them. Just agree to disagree on this one.
This year, I would say it's also razor thin margins and Kuch has a slight edge. So you are right , but then again there are still like 10 percent of the season left
landy
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"Deserved it" is your opinion and we (a lot of us and the voters) strongly disagreed.
landy
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The number of votes don’t actually show how close the people voting thought it was
That's not the point. All 137 voters who chose mackinnon could have been wrestling with making the decision. I agree it was clear edge mackinnon so I see why the votes looked like that, but kucherov was close it wasn't a no trainer
JFedol
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Should be a top 2/3 finish this year, Drai has a better chance of winning it considering his production without 97.
All I will say is that, last year was entirely something else and I don't think people will really realize how daunting it really was. Mack had an insane season but it was just astonishing how he won lol
When you have a player who sets an all time record for assists for wingers, factors in on 50% of an overall teams production, carries said team to a playoff seeding while also producing at a greater level against Top 10 teams AND to cap it off.......wins the Art Ross at the same time. The Hart should 100% be a lock for him by any means necessary. Mack's a more physically pleasing player, plays the more valueable position and the home game streak was insane, but Kuch had a better season by a larger margin and I'll die on that hill
Some people will also heavily gloss over the fact that Kuch does all of this with his f***ing back against the wall lol. He would be 10x times more dominant if he was a natural centre but the what if game is annoying
All I will say is that, last year was entirely something else and I don't think people will really realize how daunting it really was. Mack had an insane season but it was just astonishing how he won lol
When you have a player who sets an all time record for assists for wingers, factors in on 50% of an overall teams production, carries said team to a playoff seeding while also producing at a greater level against Top 10 teams AND to cap it off.......wins the Art Ross at the same time. The Hart should 100% be a lock for him by any means necessary. Mack's a more physically pleasing player, plays the more valueable position and the home game streak was insane, but Kuch had a better season by a larger margin and I'll die on that hill
Some people will also heavily gloss over the fact that Kuch does all of this with his f***ing back against the wall lol. He would be 10x times more dominant if he was a natural centre but the what if game is annoying
MacKinnon factored into 46.4% as the Avs scored only 14 more goals. The difference is largely inconsequential
Yes, there were arguments for Kucherov last year, but there were also very good arguments for MacKinnon. Kucherov was not robbed in anyway whatsoever. As noted, my vote went to Mack, would I think he got robbed if Kucherov won? Absolutely not.
Just on the few things you noted though, yes, Kucherov was in on 49% of TBL goals, Mack was in on 46% of COL goals....so Kucherov ahead there, but it's not mind boggling. I won't go into empty net points as I'm not in that camp....but it depends on how they come....will take points as points at face value for the most part though. The very biggest stat that annoys me to no end is the one that keeps coming up though....he led the closest scoring teammate by 54pts. So what? Why is that important? Mack was 84pts head of the #4 scoring on COL, Kucherov was only 68pts up on the #4 scorer on TBL.
LET ME BE SUPER CLEAR HERE: I have no bias here, I'd be fine regardless of who won, simply noting there are strong arguments for both....I just hate when people talk about Kucherov being robbed.....especially when the non-Canadian or Russian comments come which are dumb.
This year? Different story. I would have said Mack awhile ago, but he's been on bit of a slump (I've watched quite a few games and he's been great, he's being shadowed a lot and incredible plays aren't converted by teammates and some games are just down games well). Maybe Draisaitl is front runner, but he's missed some games....perhaps not enough where it's going to matter though.
I'm not really onboard with Hellebuyck winning, his stats are great, but not ungodly compared to the rest of the goalies in the league, which is normally what you need to win the Hart as a goalie. Also, his team is 3rd overall in goals for....again, not the greatest metric for a goalie winning the Hart. The team has 2 guys in the top 9 in goals and top 11 in points.
Cup Or Bust
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Draisaitl is the only reason the Oilers can win a game right now. I can't see one good argument for Kucherov as being most valuable to his team this season. Mackinnon I could as I still think Colorado's support is still not great especially with Nishushkin missing so many games, but at least they have a goalie now.
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Your first charts include multiple seasons. MacKinnon isn’t a great defender but his numbers have been decent the past two years, and he’s a better overall play driver than Kucherov typically. That was one of the factors last year, and despite the 4 point advantage for Kucherov, MacKinnon was also more productive in terms of goals, 5v5 points, non-EN points, etc. I think a lot of people felt MacKinnon was a little better as an overall player and Kucherov was a little more valuable relative to his team, and ultimately the better player won out (as is usually the case).
This year the production is in Kucherov’s corner to a similar degree, if you look at 5v5, empty net, secondary assists, etc. MacKinnon is still the better play driver but less so than last year. It’s probably a pick-em for better player, but Tampa has been less reliant on Kucherov than last year and relative value might be in MacK’s favour slightly.
Acallabeth
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No, it means Draisaitl's season was liked by hockey journalists more.
Kucherov deserves the Hart this year... Again. And I expect him to be passed in hockey journalists' popularity contest again due to 'reasons'. Draisaitl is having a tremendous season, but it can be argued that neither he nor MackKinnon are the best players on their own teams. How can they be the most valuable to their team in the league?
Hellebucyk though would be a great choice.
Cup Or Bust
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KeithIsActuallyBad
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Let's hope so. I'd forgotten how amusing it was seeing Lightning fans complain about it.
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