Will Erik Karlsson win the Norris Trophy this season?

[Hodge]

Except for Karlsson case, where he lost once to a guy with 30 less points, Josi didn’t win last year, should of.

Last year is one of the few times voters got it right. Josi was nowhere near as good as Makar just like several defensemen with fewer points than Karlsson have been better so far this season. Lindholm, Fox, Pietrangelo, Hamilton, Slavin just to name a few.

 

[Video Nasty]

He’s certainly the front runner one quarter of the way into the season.

Some can harp all they want about defense and how plus minus doesn’t matter, but he’s a positive player on a team that’s far below .500 and ranks 29th in goals against. He’s factored in on 50% of their offense and has scored 11 of their 56 goals.

He’s built a very compelling case and so far, no one else has as interesting an argument.

But it’s still early. Plenty of time to go ice cold on a bad team whose record he has directly influenced in a positive way.

Personally, I’d love to see him add a third Norris to his cabinet case.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Should be required to play defense for the Norris. They need an Orr award.

Did you ever watch Orr play? or is your opinion based on other's opinion of him?

 

[jetsforever]

Probably not but that would be hilarious and I'd like to see it

 

[vippe]

Josi is very much not a Norris contender at this point.

You know who is? Hampus Lindholm. Over PPG and a plus TWENTY while playing in all situations.

I didnt say right now, and I think he will be by seasons ends, I know Hampus has been playing lights out this year. But I think he's less likely to keep it up compared to the other players I mentioned.

 

[nowhereman]

Should be required to play defense for the Norris. They need an Orr award.

Orr was one of the best defensive players in NHL history. He's probably the last player you'd name an offense-only award after.

 

[ijuka]

Karlsson winning the Norris this year should be the death knell for that award. Just change it to an Art Ross for defensemen at that point. He is literally the worst defensive player in the league.

He might not be a defensive wizard, but that's not true. His team has negative xGF% without him, and clearly positive with him. Of course, most of his contribution is offense but the ratio is what ultimately matters. Having 1.6 xGA/60 doesn't help much if your xGF/60 is 1.3, at that point you just are a bad low event player.

It's not really fair to simply assume that leaving the defensive zone, carrying the puck or opening the game are not plays by a defenseman.

Without Karlsson SJS is at like 47.25 xGF%, with him they're around 51.38%.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

He have seperated himself and is around 10 points ahead of the competition in Makar, Fox and Dahlin. Not sure how much focus there will be on if he qulifies for the playoffs as San Jose most likely wont. Right now he is in the Hart race aswell.

Excluding Empty net points he is just one point behind McDavid. He is 5 points ahead of McDavid in Even strength points and he has points on 50% of the Sharks goals as a defenceman.

Right now if he keeps healthy he is the favourite. Hopefully he gets traded to a contender.

Where are these empty net stats from?

 

[jcs0218]

Orr was one of the best defensive players in NHL history. He's probably the last player you'd name an offense-only award after.

I agree that Orr was an all-around player. Offense, defense, physical play, fighting, etc.

But a hypothetical "best offensive defenseman" should still be named the Orr Award, because he was still the greatest offensive machine from the blueline position that ever existed.

Naming the award anything other than the Orr Award is doing a disservice to Orr's offensive abilities, and is also granting an inferior player the privilege of having an award named after him.

For example, Paul Coffey was a great player. But why should he get an award named after him and not Bobby Orr?

 

[nowhereman]

I agree that Orr was an all-around player. Offense, defense, physical play, fighting, etc.

But a hypothetical "best offensive defenseman" should still be named the Orr Award, because he was still the greatest offensive machine from the blueline position that ever existed.

But if you're specifically creating an award to anoint the best offensive defenseman because a trophy for the best all-around defenseman isn't enough, Bobby Orr isn't your guy. Paul Coffey or even a guy like Phil Housely would be a better option

But that's not me claiming that they should even consider doing this. You would hope that most of the voters understand that being a defensemen isn't all about scoring points. We know they don't but you'd hope...

 

[Signupnow]

I don't know what to think about some of you. The Norris is awarded to the best player per position. Karlsson might not take pucks to his face all night so he looks like a toothless doughty however he is the best hockey player playing the position of defence. Scoring goals is always harder than playing defence in every sport, that's why they get paid more. If we going to go by your narrative how Norris should be awarded then berger sould be winning the heart every season since you guys seem to be the only community in the sport world that value defence equally to offense, when it suits you.

The bottom line is that Karlsson can do things no other defenceman can do, even with new knees, a foot that has undergone major surgery, an Achilles that has been cut in half while having groin damages and a team that sucks.

It must be hard for you haters and it shows in every other post.. I feel sorry for u.

 

[Golden_Jet]

But if you're specifically creating an award to anoint the best offensive defenseman because a trophy for the best all-around defenseman isn't enough, Bobby Orr isn't your guy. Paul Coffey or even a guy like Phil Housely would be a better option

But that's not me claiming that they should even consider doing this. You would hope that most of the voters understand that being a defensemen isn't all about scoring points. We know they don't but you'd hope...

It wouldn’t hurt to have 3 trophies, forwards have points, goals, best defensive forward ,

 

[wetcoast]

I think he'll be a finalist at least. Still many games to go and many stellar D in the league

Adam Fox
Cale Makar
Roman Josi
Victor Hedman
Erik Karlsson

Any of those will have a good chance to win it still.

Interesting is, that over the last 10 years there's been 10 different winners, I dont think that's happened in history before.

Makar most likely will be a repeat winner and McAvoy missed too mnay games so I can see EK beibg a finalist and not winning or getting some votes depending on how many games he plays and other stuff.

 

[wetcoast]

If he wins it, be prepared for the radioactive "Is Karlsson a Top 5 defenseman of all time?" thread.

No doubt but he probably will only be a finalist, his start obviously will fall back to earth a bit but others like Josi have had a bad start too.

 

[wetcoast]

I agree that Orr was an all-around player. Offense, defense, physical play, fighting, etc.

But a hypothetical "best offensive defenseman" should still be named the Orr Award, because he was still the greatest offensive machine from the blueline position that ever existed.

Naming the award anything other than the Orr Award is doing a disservice to Orr's offensive abilities, and is also granting an inferior player the privilege of having an award named after him.

For example, Paul Coffey was a great player. But why should he get an award named after him and not Bobby Orr?

Agree 100% with this.

It wouldn’t hurt to have 3 trophies, forwards have points, goals, best defensive forward ,

But leaving it the way it is with only the Norris Trophy it brings more discussion and disagreements and philosophical differences for "all- around Dman" and this HF boards that loves adversaries.

 

[Kuz]

Where are these empty net stats from?

From NHL.com

 

[abo9]

I personally dont think he wins the Norris because I can't see then handing it on a non-playoff team - especially one thats not even gonna be in the running. If SJ makes the playoffs he probably should be in contention for the Hart and Lindsay as well lol.

Also, as much as offense has an impact in the award finalists, voters seem to snub the defenseman with most points in favour of the 2nd best in recent years, I dont think theres evidence at all to support that.

Also, I have an hypothesis (not verified) that recency bias is real for that award, and a strong finish > strong start.

That said, I think the vote could be biased by the narrative of an EK renaissance after years of struggling with injuries.

but theres numerous narratives to build for the elite talent around the league so idk how likely that is...

Karlsson winning the Norris this year should be the death knell for that award. Just change it to an Art Ross for defensemen at that point. He is literally the worst defensive player in the league.

Are the stats backing this up?

 

[2023FriendshipTour]

Stuff will normalize over a course of the season. Can see him getting a nomination. Either way it's great to see him back like this... maybe SJ can get out of his contract if they act quick haha.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Obviously the if he continue talk are true, would Karlsson score close to 50 and over 110 points he could even on a non playoff team, has a non playoff D ever got close ?

Norris trophy finalists on non-playoff teams

1954: Bill Gadsby - 3rd in voting (Chicago)
1959: Bill Gadsby - 2nd in voting (New York Rangers)
1959: Marcel Pronovost - 3rd in voting (Detroit)
1967: Bobby Orr - 3rd in voting (Boston)
1968: Tim Horton - 3rd in voting (Toronto)
2014: Shea Weber - 3rd in voting (Nashville)
2015: Drew Doughty - 2nd in voting (Los Angeles)
2016: Erik Karlsson - 2nd in voting (Ottawa)
2021: Adam Fox - winner (New York Rangers)

* 1975-76: Brad Park - 2nd in voting. Played 13 games for the New York Rangers who missed, traded to Boston, which made the playoffs.

 

[BlueBull]

Karlsson winning the Norris this year should be the death knell for that award. Just change it to an Art Ross for defensemen at that point. He is literally the worst defensive player in the league.

This is a boring and innacurate narrative.

Erik Karlsson's Expected +/- has been in the positives since he joined the Sharks.
He's no Doughty or Hedman, but he is certainly competent at defense.

Offensive Defensemen should be allowed to win the Norris as long as they're not one Dimensional.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Karlsson winning the Norris this year should be the death knell for that award. Just change it to an Art Ross for defensemen at that point. He is literally the worst defensive player in the league.

Brutal take.

 

[Voight]

Orr was one of the best defensive players in NHL history. He's probably the last player you'd name an offense-only award after.

Call it the Paul Coffey Memorial Trophy then

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Call it the Paul Coffey Memorial Trophy then

Damn, what happened to Paul Coffey?

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Well so far Erik is giving Makar a run for his money.