Will Erik Karlsson win the Norris Trophy this season?

Will Erik Karlsson win the Norris trophy this season?


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    144

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
23,420
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He's off to a fantastic start. We all know what he's been capable of in his career/at his peak, but genera consensus seemed to be he had slowed down considerably in recent years due to injury/age. Is this start to the season just a hot stretch/streak, or can he continue to be on top of league defenders all year long?

Currently he has as of this posting:

19 games, 11 goals, 28 points.

11 goals - more than he scored in any of his last 5 seasons
Is pacing for 47 goals over 82 games. Record all-time is 48 goals for a defenseman (Coffey, in the 80s, playing with Gretzky)
Is on pace for 121 points over 82 games. Only 2 defensemen in the history of the NHL have scored more than 103 points in a season (Orr/Coffey, multiple times each).
He has 3 games winning goals, and 2 OT goals. Record all-time for a defenseman in a season are 8 and 4 respectively, so he's already up there.

Obviously this is early - I'm not suggesting he'll hit 48 goals or 120 points, but I just wanted to point out how incredible his first quarter of season has been. He's clearly the favorite for the Norris trophy so far (and, possibly hart?). What's your prediction, does he keep this up all year to win the Norris trophy? Does he not win, but finish top 3? Or does he fall out of contention?

Keep in mind SJ isn't currently in playoffs, nor close, and it's quite rare to have a Norris winner win while not making playoffs.
 

vippe

Registered User
Mar 18, 2008
14,272
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Sweden
I think he'll be a finalist at least. Still many games to go and many stellar D in the league

Adam Fox
Cale Makar
Roman Josi
Victor Hedman
Erik Karlsson

Any of those will have a good chance to win it still.

Interesting is, that over the last 10 years there's been 10 different winners, I dont think that's happened in history before.
 
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Kuz

Registered User
May 11, 2015
1,137
691
He have seperated himself and is around 10 points ahead of the competition in Makar, Fox and Dahlin. Not sure how much focus there will be on if he qulifies for the playoffs as San Jose most likely wont. Right now he is in the Hart race aswell.

Excluding Empty net points he is just one point behind McDavid. He is 5 points ahead of McDavid in Even strength points and he has points on 50% of the Sharks goals as a defenceman.

Right now if he keeps healthy he is the favourite. Hopefully he gets traded to a contender.
 
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wintersej

Registered User
Nov 26, 2011
23,189
18,972
North Andover, MA
I think he'll be a finalist at least. Still many games to go and many stellar D in the league

Adam Fox
Cale Makar
Roman Josi
Victor Hedman
Erik Karlsson

Any of those will have a good chance to win it still.

Interesting is, that over the last 10 years there's been 10 different winners, I dont think that's happened in history before.

Josi is very much not a Norris contender at this point.

You know who is? Hampus Lindholm. Over PPG and a plus TWENTY while playing in all situations.
 

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
26,495
16,394
Vancouver
The current numbers are obviously a hot streak, but he’s also playing legitimately well enough where he should be a strong contender if he doesn’t get injured and his play doesn’t significantly regress, which are two pretty major caveats. While I think he likely wants to keep proving he’s still capable of elite play, how much is he mentally going to be motivated in a February game when the Sharks are far out of it?

I think if he stays healthy and on his game, he’ll have a leg up on his competition as it’s a great narrative to have him come back to Norris form, and I think often award narratives can be formed early in the season with a hot start, as it usually keep their numbers near the top all year. While missing the playoffs usually disqualifies a player, voters opened the door with Fox in ‘21, and I think Karlsson’s “back from the dead” narrative would be able to counteract that.

I still wouldn’t vote for him as likely to win or be a finalist yet as it stands, as the injury bug is such a looming shadow, but we’ll see. Right now I say he stays hot for a bit longer, settles into a high level of play without insane production, but ends up missing some games and slows down as the dog says of the season roll on, and he ends up with something like 65 points in 67 games and finishes around 5th in voting
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
23,420
16,813
Josi is very much not a Norris contender at this point.

You know who is? Hampus Lindholm. Over PPG and a plus TWENTY while playing in all situations.

He had 1 point in his first 7 games (which included 5 straight losses for Nashville) - but has since scored 13 points in his last 10 games. Not saying he would be a finalist if season ended today, but considering he's coming off a 96 point season, which in particular included a very hot 2nd half of the year - I can't imagine why you'd think he's not one of the contenders to Norris this year. Still a lot of hockey left to play
 

wintersej

Registered User
Nov 26, 2011
23,189
18,972
North Andover, MA
He had 1 point in his first 7 games (which included 5 straight losses for Nashville) - but has since scored 13 points in his last 10 games. Not saying he would be a finalist if season ended today, but considering he's coming off a 96 point season, which in particular included a very hot 2nd half of the year - I can't imagine why you'd think he's not one of the contenders to Norris this year. Still a lot of hockey left to play

No disagreement. Just saying “today” he isn’t on the list.
 
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Toby91ca

Registered User
Oct 17, 2022
2,541
1,863
Karlsson winning the Norris this year should be the death knell for that award. Just change it to an Art Ross for defensemen at that point. He is literally the worst defensive player in the league.
Not sure if I agree with that....would be more of an exception....very rarely does the leading D scorer win the award.
 
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Hodge

Registered User
Apr 27, 2021
6,761
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Not sure if I agree with that....would be more of an exception....very rarely does the leading D scorer win the award.
It almost always goes to the defenseman who’s 1st or 2nd in points despite points having very little to do with what makes a defenseman valuable.
 
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MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
10,725
6,225
Unsustainable Team on ice shooting percentage at 13.2% on a non playoff team against Fox-Makar.

By the time his 18.6% shooting percentage goes back down closer to his career average of 6.8% we will have a clearer look.

Obviously the if he continue talk are true, would Karlsson score close to 50 and over 110 points he could even on a non playoff team, has a non playoff D ever got close ?
 

ricky0034

Registered User
Jun 8, 2010
15,473
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I just have a really hard time picturing him staying healthy for the entire year

still more than 3/4ths of the season left to go

I do hope i'm wrong though, he's always been one of my favorite players
 
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bert

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Nov 11, 2002
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Defense "effectively". Better wording?
Still bitter about 2017? Or just willfully ignoring that playoff series and how he played defensively when you had a front row view. If you want to say that at times he has brief lapses of effort and consistency sure. But when you play that much it can happen especially when you are pushing the puck up the ice. But when it matters most or when he needs to he is a very good defender.
 

Toby91ca

Registered User
Oct 17, 2022
2,541
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It almost always goes to the defenseman who’s 1st or 2nd in points despite points having very little to do with what makes a defenseman valuable.
Always? In the last 30 years, it's gone to the top scoring defenseman 10 times and 9 times to #2. Not sure why #2 is relevant though, I was noting that it rarely goes to the top scoring D. Also, when it does go to the top scoring D, of those 10 times, 3 times have been Bourque and Lidstrom....tough to argue and several of the #2's have been Lidstrom. A lot of times, those Dmen are also signifcantly ahead in +/-.

Scoring is still important though, the same was it is for a Selke winner. All skaters (i.e. everyone other than goalie) is responsible for producing offense, so I think the best D still needs to show offensive ability and then a F is even more responsible for producing offense,, so Selke winner still needs to show offensive ability. For both of these though, doesn't have to be the most offensive and rarely is.
 
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Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
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It almost always goes to the defenseman who’s 1st or 2nd in points despite points having very little to do with what makes a defenseman valuable.
Except for Karlsson case, where he lost once to a guy with 30 less points, Josi didn’t win last year, should of.
 

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