Prospect Info: Wild Prospect Thread 2024 25

[Sweetnut]

That's why I like Rossi so much. He didn't go home to hang out with friends and party all summer, he went to Minnesota and put in the work to improve himself. A young player with work ethic and a strong head is all I ask for.

 

[north21]

No, but they turn Point from Beckman into Point

No point turned point into point.

Anybody here play with super talented dudes who liked drink & women more than training & discipline?
I guarantee you there are more guys born with the talent to make the show and didnt… Than those who did.
The X factor = development.

There are tons of super talented guys who are just not good enough too.

 

[north21]

Please clarify, I think you’re saying coaching, weight training, diet, professionalism, edge work, etc, doesn’t matter.

I just think it's almost all the individual player and far less team development.

 

[BagHead]

lol that’s not the X factor.

The “X Factor” in that scenario is drive/determination, which, believe it or not, isn’t coachable

Yeah that's precisely why a guy like Khovanov or Yakupov can fail, was Greenway's issue to an extent too.

And a guy like Rossi excels when people thought maybe he wouldn't.

I still think development has a lot more to do with individual drive and work ethic than anything the organization can do.

Yeah, exactly. The individual drive in a player is something that must be present for development to even be possible. A bad coach can still hurt a player's development by teaching them the wrong things and a good coach can improve them by teaching them the right things, but without that internal drive to improve nothing will be learned either way.

There's no one best thing, all things must be present to some degree, natural talent, internal motivation, and coaching. Kaprizov is so good because he has a high level of both of the first two things (at least). A guy like Duhaime made it to the NHL because he had a high level of both of the last two things. It's hard to draft for internal motivation, but not impossible; that's where your scouts have to rely on honest conversations with the player's coaches.

 

[DANOZ28]

IF COACHES DON'T MATTER, WHY PAY COACHES????

 

[thestonedkoala]

Looking back at the first page of this thread...oh boy. Khus went from just outside the top 5 to outside the organization in less than a year. And the top 10 look pretty rough after this season minus Buium and maybe Stramel. Wallstedt and Yurov have had disappointing years. Bankier couldn't capitalize either. Ohgren also was disappointing in the NHL. At least he looked okay in the AHL.

 

[BagHead]

Looking back at the first page of this thread...oh boy. Khus went from just outside the top 5 to outside the organization in less than a year. And the top 10 look pretty rough after this season minus Buium and maybe Stramel. Wallstedt and Yurov have had disappointing years. Bankier couldn't capitalize either. Ohgren also was disappointing in the NHL. At least he looked okay in the AHL.

I've said for quite a while now that the prospect pool rankings don't mean much, if anything. They're not a portent of how good a team is going to be in the future. That said, all prospect pools have the majority of the players end up as flops. Most will have only half their top 1-4 guys pan out as anticipated.

Pronman's '19-20 Farm System Ratings
Look at the top prospects from the top teams:

#1 Rangers: 1. Kakko, 2. Kavtsov, 3. Fox, 4. Shesterkin.
#2 Avalanche: 1. Makar, 2. Byram, 3. Newhook, 4. Kaut.
#3 Devils: 1. J. Hughes, 2. Ty Smith, 3. J. Boqvist, 4. M. McLeod.

That's a list where about half the guys lived up to their billing or draft position, and the other half are in the NHL but disappointments, or have flamed out of the NHL entirely. And these were the top 3 teams. The further down you go, the lower the odds of the player being an impact NHLer. Teams need to get lucky occasionally to have out-performance. Dallas' core, for instance, is built almost entirely on the backs of their 2017 draft and their 2021 draft. They got a single player out of 2015 and 2019. All other relevant years are lists of nobodies or non-core players.

Wheeler has our current list (ranked #2 in the NHL) as follows:
1. Buium, 2. Yurov, 3. Jiricek, 4. Wallstedt. Which half of ours do we think will live up to their billing? Odds are only that many will. No point in getting upset when it happens, or blaming the development system, it's just the reality of the game.

 

[BagHead]

I've said for quite a while now that the prospect pool rankings don't mean much, if anything. They're not a portent of how good a team is going to be in the future. That said, all prospect pools have the majority of the players end up as flops. Most will have only half their top 1-4 guys pan out as anticipated.

Pronman's '19-20 Farm System Ratings
Look at the top prospects from the top teams:

#1 Rangers: 1. Kakko, 2. Kavtsov, 3. Fox, 4. Shesterkin.
#2 Avalanche: 1. Makar, 2. Byram, 3. Newhook, 4. Kaut.
#3 Devils: 1. J. Hughes, 2. Ty Smith, 3. J. Boqvist, 4. M. McLeod.

That's a list where about half the guys lived up to their billing or draft position, and the other half are in the NHL but disappointments, or have flamed out of the NHL entirely. And these were the top 3 teams. The further down you go, the lower the odds of the player being an impact NHLer. Teams need to get lucky occasionally to have out-performance. Dallas' core, for instance, is built almost entirely on the backs of their 2017 draft and their 2021 draft. They got a single player out of 2015 and 2019. All other relevant years are lists of nobodies or non-core players.

Wheeler has our current list (ranked #2 in the NHL) as follows:
1. Buium, 2. Yurov, 3. Jiricek, 4. Wallstedt. Which half of ours do we think will live up to their billing? Odds are only that many will. No point in getting upset when it happens, or blaming the development system, it's just the reality of the game.

I kept thinking about this, and decided to check out the Wild in '19-20. We were ranked 22nd by Pronman, and this is what we had:
1. Boldy, 2. Kaprizov, 3. Khovanov, 4. Sturm

That ~50% thing holds up even here, near the bottom of the list. The ordering of them is particularly interesting. Just posting this as an aside.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I kept thinking about this, and decided to check out the Wild in '19-20. We were ranked 22nd by Pronman, and this is what we had:
1. Boldy, 2. Kaprizov, 3. Khovanov, 4. Sturm

That ~50% thing holds up even here, near the bottom of the list. The ordering of them is particularly interesting. Just posting this as an aside.

So who's Khovanov and who is Sturm? I'm guessing unfortunately Ohgren is Sturm and Wallstedt is Khovanov.

 

[Wabit]

I kept thinking about this, and decided to check out the Wild in '19-20. We were ranked 22nd by Pronman, and this is what we had:
1. Boldy, 2. Kaprizov, 3. Khovanov, 4. Sturm

That ~50% thing holds up even here, near the bottom of the list. The ordering of them is particularly interesting. Just posting this as an aside.

I've been saying this for years. The lists are pretty meaningless. There is no repercussions for them being wrong. They are all just fodder for the mill and will be forgotten about when the next year's report comes out.

For the people like seeing them and it makes them happy, cool. Keep doing what you enjoy.

 

[Circulartheory]

Ryder Ritchie with a hatrick and 2 assists!

He's going to be a good one

 

[DigitalBoldy]

#SaveUsBuium

 

[57special]

Saw that Beckman was traded from Devils AHL team to Bridgeport, AHL team. Had 33 points in 45 gp.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Anybody know how much time Ritchie sees with McKenna?

 

[AKL]

Anybody know how much time Ritchie sees with McKenna?

I only know they play on different even strength lines

 

[57special]

Ya, they play on different lines, for the most part.