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Prospect Info: Wild Prospect Thread 2022-23

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I'm still concerned about 1) development and 2) drafting.

This'll be D+4 for Firstov, Jones and Beckman. Guskov and Warren are gone, Nesterenko and Lindberg are with other teams.

Firstov and Jones are busts at this point and I think it's put up or shut up for Beckman. If he doesn't at least make the team at the end of the season, I think he'll be on another team soon or in Europe.

2020 is getting there. I would hope that Rossi is on the team and either O'Rourke and Hunt are pushing Middleton, Goligoski, Merrill at the beginning of the season to the end.

2021, Lambos, Bankier, Masters should have good years in the AHL. Pillar got traded and Benoit is a non factor.

I'm really concerned about the development of this team. Haight and Petrovsky will need to join next season, so we should see some big developments from them. Milne is already on the team and Spacek is starting this season. Lorenz and Healey has a few years.
 
thestonedkoala said:
I'm still concerned about 1) development and 2) drafting.

This'll be D+4 for Firstov, Jones and Beckman. Guskov and Warren are gone, Nesterenko and Lindberg are with other teams.

Firstov and Jones are busts at this point and I think it's put up or shut up for Beckman. If he doesn't at least make the team at the end of the season, I think he'll be on another team soon or in Europe.

2020 is getting there. I would hope that Rossi is on the team and either O'Rourke and Hunt are pushing Middleton, Goligoski, Merrill at the beginning of the season to the end.

2021, Lambos, Bankier, Masters should have good years in the AHL. Pillar got traded and Benoit is a non factor.

I'm really concerned about the development of this team. Haight and Petrovsky will need to join next season, so we should see some big developments from them. Milne is already on the team and Spacek is starting this season. Lorenz and Healey has a few years.
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I haven't really tried to run the numbers in a while but, relative to the rest of the league, do the Wild develop fewer NHL players out of the later (3rd+) rounds? Like in aggregate the team needs to score a couple of hits in those rounds so they don't have to overpay for (non-BIGRIG) depth via free agency... but whether or not this or that 5th rounder makes the team is hard to get concerned about.

Without some metric for success/failure you'll be as worried about prospect development as you care to be.
 
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Bazeek said:
I haven't really tried to run the numbers in a while but, relative to the rest of the league, do the Wild develop fewer NHL players out of the later (3rd+) rounds? Like in aggregate the team needs to score a couple of hits in those rounds so they don't have to overpay for (non-BIGRIG) depth via free agency... but whether or not this or that 5th rounder makes the team is hard to get concerned about.

Without some metric for success/failure you'll be as worried about prospect development as you care to be.
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It's not the 3rd round that's a concern, it's the 1st and 2nd round. Minnesota hasn't graduated a defenseman they drafted since 2013 (Carson Soucy) and a top 4 defenseman since 2012. The last top 6 player they've taken outside the 1st round was Kaprizov in 2015. The only forwards they have drafted since 2013 had to make any impact in the NHL is Duhaime, Shaw, Dewar, Boldy and Eriksson-Ek.
 
I think this prospect pool will produce a far above average number of NHL players. I don’t know how many of them will be particularly impactful though. Probably a lot of bottom-six, bottom pair guys.
 
thestonedkoala said:
It's not the 3rd round that's a concern, it's the 1st and 2nd round. Minnesota hasn't graduated a defenseman they drafted since 2013 (Carson Soucy) and a top 4 defenseman since 2012. The last top 6 player they've taken outside the 1st round was Kaprizov in 2015. The only forwards they have drafted since 2013 had to make any impact in the NHL is Duhaime, Shaw, Dewar, Boldy and Eriksson-Ek.
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Kunin and Tuch are NHL players (2014 and 2016). 2017 didn't have a 1st round pick and 2018 made a bad pick (it happens).

We've drafted 1 defenseman in the 1st round between 2012 and 2021 (from 2013 to 2020), and it was a questionable pick at the time (not a surprise it didn't work out), and only 3 defensemen in the 2nd round during that time.
 
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thestonedkoala said:
It's not the 3rd round that's a concern, it's the 1st and 2nd round. Minnesota hasn't graduated a defenseman they drafted since 2013 (Carson Soucy) and a top 4 defenseman since 2012. The last top 6 player they've taken outside the 1st round was Kaprizov in 2015. The only forwards they have drafted since 2013 had to make any impact in the NHL is Duhaime, Shaw, Dewar, Boldy and Eriksson-Ek.
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That's probably fair. We're still coming out of the deadzone that was the late Fletcher Years + the Johansson pick, but the 2019 draft hasn't yielded much outside of Boldy despite the extra 2nd rounder. Maybe Beckman, maybe not.

I think the 2020+ drafts still look okay in terms of NHLers. There probably isn't a lot of raw upside there, but I think that's more a function of draft position than development. I'm not sure what the team should be doing differently on that front.
 
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Dr Jan Itor said:
Kunin and Tuch are NHL players (2014 and 2016). 2017 didn't have a 1st round pick and 2018 made a bad pick (it happens).

We've drafted 1 defenseman in the 1st round between 2012 and 2021 (from 2013 to 2020), and it was a questionable pick at the time (not a surprise it didn't work out), and only 3 defensemen in the 2nd round during that time.
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Kunin isn't on the team and Tuch isn't either. I mean, do the Penguins get credit for Addison?

Gustav Olofsson was a 2nd round pick, Louis Belpedio was a 3rd round pick, Dylan Labbe was a 4th round pick. Soucy was a 5th and made it.

The problem is that Minnesota hasn't even gotten depth guys outside the 1st round at all.

2020 is questionable due to Hunt's injury and O'Rourke just being - meh at best. Khus is not even in the NHL sphere as of yet. Also O'Rourke was a pretty decent 2nd round pick (at least in the top 40).

As I said, I hope that O'Rourke and Hunt push at the beginning of the season. If not, there is some questions.
 
thestonedkoala said:
Kunin isn't on the team and Tuch isn't either. I mean, do the Penguins get credit for Addison?

Gustav Olofsson was a 2nd round pick, Louis Belpedio was a 3rd round pick, Dylan Labbe was a 4th round pick. Soucy was a 5th and made it.

The problem is that Minnesota hasn't even gotten depth guys outside the 1st round at all.

2020 is questionable due to Hunt's injury and O'Rourke just being - meh at best. Khus is not even in the NHL sphere as of yet. Also O'Rourke was a pretty decent 2nd round pick (at least in the top 40).

As I said, I hope that O'Rourke and Hunt push at the beginning of the season. If not, there is some questions.
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Kunin and Tuch not being on the team is a different issue than the drafting and "developing" of them. So yes, Pittsburgh can claim credit for drafting Addison (because they did) and at least a certain amount of developing him (they had him for ~1.5 years). And we can do the same with Tuch and Kunin.

I know all of our picks. Every team has 2nd rounders, 3rd rounders, 4th rounders, etc... that didn't amount to anything. If they didn't, the league would have 100 teams by now.
 
Dr Jan Itor said:
I know all of our picks. Every team has 2nd rounders, 3rd rounders, 4th rounders, etc... that didn't amount to anything. If they didn't, the league would have 100 teams by now.
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Not as bad as Minnesota throughout the Risebrough, Fletcher and now into the Fenton years. Schultz, Scandella, Zucker, Greenway all played a significant chunk for Minnesota and probably tossin Harding. O'Sullivan and Larsson got traded. Veilleux, Stoner, Clutterbuck, Dewar and McBain in the 3rd.

It just isn't they didn't make it, it's how bad they didn't make it.

Nashville has had Shea Weber, Roman Josi, in the 2nd. They have had a lot of good players come from the 2nd and 3rd round.

Boone Jenner, Adam McQuaid, Tim Jackman, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Kris Russell, in the 2nd for Columbus. They have had an equal time finding guys in the 2nd round, but they did get Bjorkstrand and Russell almost hit 1000 GP. But one of the reasons why they haven't done as good is because they haven't been able to hit their draft picks.
 
thestonedkoala said:
Not as bad as Minnesota throughout the Risebrough, Fletcher and now into the Fenton years. Schultz, Scandella, Zucker, Greenway all played a significant chunk for Minnesota and probably tossin Harding. O'Sullivan and Larsson got traded. Veilleux, Stoner, Clutterbuck, Dewar and McBain in the 3rd.

It just isn't they didn't make it, it's how bad they didn't make it.

Nashville has had Shea Weber, Roman Josi, in the 2nd. They have had a lot of good players come from the 2nd and 3rd round.

Boone Jenner, Adam McQuaid, Tim Jackman, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Kris Russell, in the 2nd for Columbus. They have had an equal time finding guys in the 2nd round, but they did get Bjorkstrand and Russell almost hit 1000 GP. But one of the reasons why they haven't done as good is because they haven't been able to hit their draft picks.
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I've yet to see the statistical evidence, so I will eagerly await.
 
Dr Jan Itor said:
I've yet to see the statistical evidence, so I will eagerly await.
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The problem with the evidence that I have seen is that they weigh guys like Schultz the same as Wanvig because both of them made it to the NHL and they are both in the 2nd round. Or Clutterbuck with McBain in terms of impact to the team. Did McBain have as much impact as Clutterbuck did on the team? What about Khudobin vs Kuemper? And then how do you use those prospects/players?

I've done dives of how each team is constructed that made it to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Knights are a bit of an oddball since they are an expansion team, but if you look at a how the Panthers were constructed, they had some free agent signings, some home grown talent and some trades with guys they drafted.

Minnesota is slowly changing some of the old ways they used to do things (Guerin has moved prospects more than anyone else in their history), but in terms of development, which is where this started, we still are missing evidence that this team has changed in terms of developing prospects or how they handle prospects in the minors. I'd expect a guy like O'Rourke or Hunt (barring injuries) to push Merrill or even Middleton at the end of last season or even the beginning of this season. Lambos as well. I'd expect a guy like Milne or Beckman or Walker to push Foligno and make it hard to justify keeping him on the roster. Or Rossi pushing Hartman down the lineup.

We traded for Maroon, which is great if we were getting rid of Foligno.

This team baffles me all the time on the construction of the roster.
 
thestonedkoala said:
The problem with the evidence that I have seen is that they weigh guys like Schultz the same as Wanvig because both of them made it to the NHL and they are both in the 2nd round. Or Clutterbuck with McBain in terms of impact to the team. Did McBain have as much impact as Clutterbuck did on the team? What about Khudobin vs Kuemper? And then how do you use those prospects/players?

I've done dives of how each team is constructed that made it to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Knights are a bit of an oddball since they are an expansion team, but if you look at a how the Panthers were constructed, they had some free agent signings, some home grown talent and some trades with guys they drafted.

Minnesota is slowly changing some of the old ways they used to do things (Guerin has moved prospects more than anyone else in their history), but in terms of development, which is where this started, we still are missing evidence that this team has changed in terms of developing prospects or how they handle prospects in the minors. I'd expect a guy like O'Rourke or Hunt (barring injuries) to push Merrill or even Middleton at the end of last season or even the beginning of this season. Lambos as well. I'd expect a guy like Milne or Beckman or Walker to push Foligno and make it hard to justify keeping him on the roster. Or Rossi pushing Hartman down the lineup.

We traded for Maroon, which is great if we were getting rid of Foligno.

This team baffles me all the time on the construction of the roster.
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Sounds like how every roster is constructed, unless I'm missing something.
 
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Dr Jan Itor said:
Sounds like how every roster is constructed, unless I'm missing something.
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Sort of kind of; Minnesota has relied heavily in the past on free agent signings, because they didn't have anything in the minors. This is slowly changing under Guerin, but there are also different types of trades.

Right now, Minnesota needs to replace Zuccarello and Hartman, but it doesn't look like they have anyone to step up to replace either or of them nor Foligno. It'd be good to replace Goligoski, Merrill and even Middleton with someone a bit better caliber, but again no one seems to be there.

I'll take a deep dive when I'm off of work.
 
thestonedkoala said:
The problem with the evidence that I have seen is that they weigh guys like Schultz the same as Wanvig because both of them made it to the NHL and they are both in the 2nd round. Or Clutterbuck with McBain in terms of impact to the team. Did McBain have as much impact as Clutterbuck did on the team? What about Khudobin vs Kuemper? And then how do you use those prospects/players?

I've done dives of how each team is constructed that made it to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Knights are a bit of an oddball since they are an expansion team, but if you look at a how the Panthers were constructed, they had some free agent signings, some home grown talent and some trades with guys they drafted.

Minnesota is slowly changing some of the old ways they used to do things (Guerin has moved prospects more than anyone else in their history), but in terms of development, which is where this started, we still are missing evidence that this team has changed in terms of developing prospects or how they handle prospects in the minors. I'd expect a guy like O'Rourke or Hunt (barring injuries) to push Merrill or even Middleton at the end of last season or even the beginning of this season. Lambos as well. I'd expect a guy like Milne or Beckman or Walker to push Foligno and make it hard to justify keeping him on the roster. Or Rossi pushing Hartman down the lineup.

We traded for Maroon, which is great if we were getting rid of Foligno.

This team baffles me all the time on the construction of the roster.
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This feels like one in a long series of posts where "development" is treated as a black box that spits out players that don't meet expectations (whatever those expectations are based on). Because of that, it's decided that there must be something wrong with the black box.

Isn't it more likely that this is a garbage-in-garbage-out problem for a team that keeps drafting in the mid-late 1st? Is there some indication that it's not that?
 
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Number of pieces of the pie (how many 1st and 2nd round picks) and how old is the pie (where in the round are you picking) is probably a much larger impact here than anything else.
 
thestonedkoala said:
Sort of kind of; Minnesota has relied heavily in the past on free agent signings, because they didn't have anything in the minors. This is slowly changing under Guerin, but there are also different types of trades.

Right now, Minnesota needs to replace Zuccarello and Hartman, but it doesn't look like they have anyone to step up to replace either or of them nor Foligno. It'd be good to replace Goligoski, Merrill and even Middleton with someone a bit better caliber, but again no one seems to be there.

I'll take a deep dive when I'm off of work.
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Current Roster:

Drafted 33.3%
Kaprizov
Eriksson Ek
Brodin
Dewar
Boldy
Duhaime
Shaw

FA Signings 28.6%
Zuccarello
Gaudreau
Spurgeon
Merrill
Goligoski
Hartman

Trades 38.1%
Johansson
Gustavsson
Faber (acquired by trading somebody we acquired by trading somebody we drafted)
Maroon
Middleton (acquired by trading somebody we drafted)
Addison (acquired by trading somebody we drafted)
Fleury
Foligno

I have no idea how this stacks up to the rest of the league.
 
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Bazeek said:
This feels like one in a long series of posts where "development" is treated as a black box that spits out players that don't meet expectations (whatever those expectations are based on). Because of that, it's decided that there must be something wrong with the black box.
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This seems accurate, or that the decision makers inside the black box didn't draft well enough than the complainers who only use hind sight.
 
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Prior said:
It’s impressive that you guys can have this same argument every year, sometimes multiple times.
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But don't dare question it, or complain about the same argument occurring over and over and over and over again.
 
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