misterchainsaw
Preparing PHASE TWO!
So I've seen a bunch of posters mentioning how if the Swiss win out they will finish 4-1 and possibly win their pool. Here is why I think that winning the pool, even at 4-1, is a near impossibility.
STANDINGS:
Finland 2-0 (4 points, +11 goal differential)
Canada 2-1 (4 points, +7 GD)
Swiss 2-1 (4 points, -2 GD)
Czech Republic 1-1 (2 points, +2 GD)
The first tiebreaker (I believe, anyway) is goal differential, which, to be blunt, the Swiss have almost no chance to win against any team in the pool. So, for them to take 1st, they must finish in 1st outright. So, Finland will have to lose a game and tie one, Canada lose or tie one, and Czechs lose or tie one.
A very specific set of results will have to occur for that to happen (barring any more major upsets from Italy or Germany)
a) Finland must not beat either Canada or the Czech Republic
b1) If Finland LOSES both games to Canada and the Czechs, than the Canada-Czech matchup MUST end in a tie, or the team that wins will win the group.
b2) If Finland goes 0-1-1 against Canada and the Czechs, than the team that TIES Finland must either WIN OR TIE in the CZE-CAN game.
Frankly...I don't see it happening.
Of course, if I'm wrong and head to head results are the first decider, then all the Swiss have to hope for is result (a)
STANDINGS:
Finland 2-0 (4 points, +11 goal differential)
Canada 2-1 (4 points, +7 GD)
Swiss 2-1 (4 points, -2 GD)
Czech Republic 1-1 (2 points, +2 GD)
The first tiebreaker (I believe, anyway) is goal differential, which, to be blunt, the Swiss have almost no chance to win against any team in the pool. So, for them to take 1st, they must finish in 1st outright. So, Finland will have to lose a game and tie one, Canada lose or tie one, and Czechs lose or tie one.
A very specific set of results will have to occur for that to happen (barring any more major upsets from Italy or Germany)
a) Finland must not beat either Canada or the Czech Republic
b1) If Finland LOSES both games to Canada and the Czechs, than the Canada-Czech matchup MUST end in a tie, or the team that wins will win the group.
b2) If Finland goes 0-1-1 against Canada and the Czechs, than the team that TIES Finland must either WIN OR TIE in the CZE-CAN game.
Frankly...I don't see it happening.
Of course, if I'm wrong and head to head results are the first decider, then all the Swiss have to hope for is result (a)