why nobody is talking about the anaheim ducks rebuild?

[Juxtaposer]

Based on what?

Based on watching him play ice hockey for the last 18 months.

Carlsson, McTavish, and even Zegras are guys when you watch them you think, "this guy could be a lot better than what he is right now". Gauthier, I don't see that. That isn't to say that he's never going to score more than he is now, just that I don't see potential for developing more facets to his game than what's already there.

 

[Gnome17]

To me, their first wave of rebuilding didnt quite work.
A couple years ago you could have thought that McTavish, Terry, Zegras and Drysdale would have been the new core of this team, and while some of these players arent bad, they never met those expectations.
They have a new wave now with Carlsson, Zellweger, Lacombe and Gauthier, hopefully the can mesh together well with the previously mentioned players and create something but so far it feels like theyre treading mud a little bit.

 

[McDonald19]

Their rebuild excites me a lot but a) west coast games are hard to catch on the regular and b) most importantly their foundational pieces are taking longer to get up to speed.

MacTavish doesn't look like anything special yet. Zegras hasn't become the exciting and dynamic 85 point guy I thought he would (and maybe never will). Leo Carlsson is IMO the center piece of the rebuild and I think he can become a big, rangy, Kopitar-like player but he's not yet become a major impact player.

As someone else said, if/when Carlsson, Gauthier, MacTavish, Mintyukov, Zellweger, become their best players instead of Vatrano/Strome/Terry, they will be worth watching.

Zegras is always injured. He was looking very dynamic again before the latest injury.

 

[Stickpucker]

Because they aren't MIGHTY!

 

[McDonald19]

Dostal is the only bright spot.
The rest are either constantly injured or not progressing.

LaCombe says hi.

 

[Mr Rogers]

Because the vets and the goaltending are the ones driving team success, and not the kids. Terry, Vatrano, and Strome are the only guys scoring at a respectable rate.

Leo Carlsson has one single primary assist in 33 games. He's got just 8 goals in 33 games while shooting 18.2%, so he's significantly over his expected goal total. He's on pace for 37 total points while posting some of the worst on-ice metrics and a 39% faceoff percentage.

McTavish isn't very good. Zegras can't stay healthy and isn't very good. Mintyukov has been a healthy scratch. Gauthier has been solid but seems like close to a finished product.

That isn't to say that they can't pull it together, the talent is there. But the only reason they've improved in the standings this year is the vets and the goaltending. Not exactly what you want to see if you're a re-building team. I suppose Dostal is a pretty good future piece, but he's the only one performing to expectation.

That's why no one is talking about the Ducks' rebuild.

I think this is an overly negative take on basically everything but you qualified it by saying you think it’s possible they turn it around. while Dostal has indeed been great and is performing beyond expectations (not merely meeting), other guys have exceeded as well I’d say like Lacombe and Gauthier - what you said about Gauthier is just way off base, Just way too early to say something like that. I bet you can’t point to any quantitative evidence to support that opinion. I haven’t seen anyone else make such a premature assertion either.

The young guys are still learning, developing, trying things out. Coaches are not the greatest at coaching offense either. People from the Ducks board will even say I’ve been a bit hard on Carlsson in particular but a lot of this is just unfair to him and others. The general tenor of your post is just off.

 

[qc14]

Those weren't high picks, they were late 1sts. The hit rate for scoring forwards on those is very low in general ... I did a look at a 10 year span and found that in that 20-32 pick range, there were 11 top 6 forwards picked in total.



Kind of early on all of them outside of Zegras, are we really making that call when the other guys are 18-21 years old? All those guys have shown promise though, it's not like they have a bunch of Kakkos who haven't done anything.



Even without a clear 1D emerging yet, they do have at the moment four young dmen who are clearly NHL capable. It's pretty nice to be in a position as a rebuilding team to know your D is largely solid going forward, and G is totally settled. And of course they have multiple prospects on the blueline who are still on the way (Luneau, Solberg, Smith) who would be some teams' best D prospect.

Perrault and Tracy weren't just misses though but some of the worst first round misses in recent history. Completely tanked all of their value by 22 and 23.

Sure it probably is too early to call on all of them but 1) it's not very fun and 2) it's kind of a cop-out as you could say that about every young player. I think that there's enough of a body of work for Zegras and McTavish in particular to have serious doubts about their ability to be top-line players going forward. Gauthier and Carlsson have also struggled quite a bit this year and it's fair to be critical of them and their outlook as well.

I do like most of their young D but I still think it's important for one to take another step and I don't know who that guy is.

Overall they've just had a lot more high draft capital than you would think and have yet to hit any home runs. I get that the "expected" value of a first rounder, or even 3oa, is a lot lower than most people think it is. There's not a Draisaitl or Quinn Hughes available every year. That doesn't mean that when you pick there it's not a failure or disappointment when you don't walk away with those kinds of players.

 

[HanSolo]

Based on watching him play ice hockey for the last 18 months.

Carlsson, McTavish, and even Zegras are guys when you watch them you think, "this guy could be a lot better than what he is right now". Gauthier, I don't see that. That isn't to say that he's never going to score more than he is now, just that I don't see potential for developing more facets to his game than what's already there.

Well I guess it depends on how you're defining this. Is he ever going to be a play driver that runs his line's offensive set ups? Yeah probably not. Not barring some crazy revelations in how he approaches and executes. At the start of the season it looked like he was trying to prove he could and obviously someone on the coaching staff told him to simplify his game and play the complimentary winger role, and he's been getting a lot better at that.

In terms of goal scoring and playmaking, I don't think he's going to be a guy that gets 25-30 goals a season and like 8 assists or anything like that. He makes the occasional good go ahead play when opportunities are there but he's more of a volume shoot and leads the team in attempts/60. So then the question is, how much can his finishing improve? Safe bet is he bottoms out as a solid goal scoring second liner but being a complimentary piece to a 1C isn't out of the question either. He's still adapting to this league and better finishing can come with more experience.

Which is why I thought "close to a finished product" sounded pretty insane.

Defensively, I doubt he's ever gonna be nominated for a Selke but he puts in a solid effort on forechecking.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Their goaltending has been really good. Didn't realize Dostal and Gibson led the league in goals saved above expected.

Don’t tell @Shane Diesel

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Because the vets and the goaltending are the ones driving team success, and not the kids. Terry, Vatrano, and Strome are the only guys scoring at a respectable rate.

Leo Carlsson has one single primary assist in 33 games. He's got just 8 goals in 33 games while shooting 18.2%, so he's significantly over his expected goal total. He's on pace for 37 total points while posting some of the worst on-ice metrics and a 39% faceoff percentage.

McTavish isn't very good. Zegras can't stay healthy and isn't very good. Mintyukov has been a healthy scratch. Gauthier has been solid but seems like close to a finished product.

That isn't to say that they can't pull it together, the talent is there. But the only reason they've improved in the standings this year is the vets and the goaltending. Not exactly what you want to see if you're a re-building team. I suppose Dostal is a pretty good future piece, but he's the only one performing to expectation.

That's why no one is talking about the Ducks' rebuild.

mintyukov and zellweger are on a rotation.

Mctavish has been pretty meh, has the occasional game where he shows potential to be a force but then disappears for long periods.

Zegras actually looks good but been injured a lot the last 2 seasons, which is hurting chemistry/confidence and consistency.

Carlsson I think we prob messed up bringing him up last year…. I think he’ll be good in time…. But a lot of pressure on him with not a ton of help around him.

 

[LuGBuG]

To me, their first wave of rebuilding didnt quite work.
A couple years ago you could have thought that McTavish, Terry, Zegras and Drysdale would have been the new core of this team, and while some of these players arent bad, they never met those expectations.
They have a new wave now with Carlsson, Zellweger, Lacombe and Gauthier, hopefully the can mesh together well with the previously mentioned players and create something but so far it feels like theyre treading mud a little bit.

You aren’t going to see many basement teams get turned around by a 9th overall, 5th rounder, 3rd overall and 6th overall (unless you get tremendously lucky) after a complete tear down because you contended for a decade. They were always going to need the second wave. Also each of those players in the first wave has shown and lived up to their potential at times but also been inconsistent… which happens with most players that age.

The second wave average age of guys you just mentioned is 21.5 which includes a 24 year old Lacombe who is looking like a top pairing defenseman.

 

[FiveTacos]

Perrault and Tracy weren't just misses though but some of the worst first round misses in recent history. Completely tanked all of their value by 22 and 23.

Have you seen how many late 1st round forwards never even become NHLers?

Sure it probably is too early to call on all of them but 1) it's not very fun and 2) it's kind of a cop-out as you could say that about every young player. I think that there's enough of a body of work for Zegras and McTavish in particular to have serious doubts about their ability to be top-line players going forward.

I think Zegras has always looked like a 2C type to me. Still an excellent yield at 9oa.

McTavish has had stretches where he's looked like he could be more ... But also stretches where he kinda struggles. But that's not unusual for a guy who's still 21.

Gauthier and Carlsson have also struggled quite a bit this year and it's fair to be critical of them and their outlook as well.

Carlsson's had some weird fumbles with the puck this year. Last year it came out that he's still growing (Killorn said the team doctors think he's got another inch or two to go) so he may be adjusting. But there have also been games where he looks like a 1C.

Gauthier I'm not making any calls on yet. He's 20 and has yet to even play half a season. I will say, though, he has improved steadily. He's also probably hit more posts than any other Duck by a huge margin.

I do like most of their young D but I still think it's important for one to take another step and I don't know who that guy is.

I've always felt like any D that emerges before age 23-24 is the exception not the norm. Mintyukov and Zellweger just turned 21, we will have to wait and see.

Overall they've just had a lot more high draft capital than you would think and have yet to hit any home runs. I get that the "expected" value of a first rounder, or even 3oa, is a lot lower than most people think it is. There's not a Draisaitl or Quinn Hughes available every year. That doesn't mean that when you pick there it's not a failure or disappointment when you don't walk away with those kinds of players.

Yes, but I also don't think the time to feel disappointment is in like year 1 or 2 when guys are like 20-21. Maybe by 23+ if they've all stalled out.

I always think back to the slew of future stars on the old Nords, yet they were having historically awful seasons because a bunch of them were under 22.

 

[Mulletman]

Because this time Anaheim doesn't have a likeable babyface that can electrify the crowds and be the cornerstone of the franchise like when they had Selanne, nor do they have the dastardly heel that can create drama and compelling storylines around the team like when they had Kariya. There's simply no one in Anaheim who can draw right now.

 

[LuGBuG]

Because this time Anaheim doesn't have a likeable babyface that can electrify the crowds and be the cornerstone of the franchise like when they had Selanne, nor do they have the dastardly heel that can create drama and compelling storylines around the team like when they had Kariya. There's simply no one in Anaheim who can draw right now.

Kariya the heel. He was definitely a villain. Kariya walked so guys like Cooke and Cousins could run.

Oh Mulletman.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

Great jerseys. Like them, especially the away one.

 

[frederixx]

I don't see any success story here. Maybe it will change with time, but as we speak, their top scorers are veterans (Terry, Vatrano, Strome, Killorn). Gauthier is their best youngster so far this season with 17pts in 39GP. I would be worried being a Ducks fan

 

[Frank Drebin]

I don't see any success story here. Maybe it will change with time, but as we speak, their top scorers are veterans (Terry, Vatrano, Strome, Killorn). Gauthier is their best youngster so far this season with 17pts in 39GP. I would be worried being a Ducks fan

See user title

I really don’t care about or follow the ducks but i do hope sennecke is an absolute monster for them

 

[Curufinwe]

Shocked they aren't missing Drysdale.

 

[MMC]

Perrault and Tracy weren't just misses though but some of the worst first round misses in recent history. Completely tanked all of their value by 22 and 23.

Too bad they weren’t simply an average miss, clearly the team would be way better today

 

[Captain Mountain]

Because its a small market, west coast team and the only prospect that has really stood out on a League-wide level since Zegras' Calder finalist run/first two seasons has been Dostal this year, and its hard to tell when a goalie is actually elite until they are one.

It feels like HFBoards consensus on their prospects has generally been incredibly high, but none have really established themselves as core NHLers yet outside of Dostal (although LaCombe has looked really good). They're a WIP.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

See user title

I really don’t care about or follow the ducks but i do hope sennecke is an absolute monster for them

I have high hopes for Sennecke.... Hes got such a nice tool kit... just hope we dont duck it up like weve been known to do with our forward prospects.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Because its a small market, west coast team and the only prospect that has really stood out on a League-wide level since Zegras' Calder finalist run/first two seasons has been Dostal this year, and its hard to tell when a goalie is actually elite until they are one.

It feels like HFBoards consensus on their prospects has generally been incredibly high, but none have really established themselves as core NHLers yet outside of Dostal (although LaCombe has looked really good). They're a WIP.

Part of the issue is we didnt get a 1st overall talent like Bedard/Celebrini to really lighten that load.


Zegras was a good pick at 9, and was electric, but has had a tough couple seasons with injuries.
McTavish was prob a questionable pick at 3, has shown abilities to take over, but lacks consistency.
Carlsson is too young to really judge harshly, i think hell be fine long term, but patience is key.
Sennecke is on the same boat as Carlsson... both guys still kinda growing into their bodies.
Gauthier has been a fantastic addition trade from a position of power. I dont think he has the upside of the other 4 guys, but i think his floor is the highest.

On the back end

Mintyukov, Zellweger, Helleson, Lacombe, Luneau have all showed they are NHL talents, and its basically about how they continue to develop and take the next steps.

The reality is most of these guys are 21 and under, exceptions being Zegras Lacombe and Helleson.... just got to continue be patient, and try to add talent around them.


Coach would be a good change too.

 

[VeteranPresence]

I see threads about the wings, habs rebuild issues and nobody has brought up Anaheim..

I think this team is gonna be good. They have a lot of young skillful forwards and some good young d-men.

Discuss.

No one is talking about the Ducks rebuild because their fans are not filling these boards with insane predictions about what their players will SURELY become even while they're in other leagues and in some cases countries. Anaheim, quietly, has done it right: they have a ton of young D, a very good young starter, and some budding pieces up front.

I still think they're a potential high-end forward or two away from being "finished" their rebuild, but they'll get a chance at one of those pieces in the draft this year. Add in a McQueen/Spence/Lakovic type who fits their identity and they're right up there with the brightest futures in the league.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Part of the issue is we didnt get a 1st overall talent like Bedard/Celebrini to really lighten that load.


Zegras was a good pick at 9, and was electric, but has had a tough couple seasons with injuries.
McTavish was prob a questionable pick at 3, has shown abilities to take over, but lacks consistency.
Carlsson is too young to really judge harshly, i think hell be fine long term, but patience is key.
Sennecke is on the same boat as Carlsson... both guys still kinda growing into their bodies.
Gauthier has been a fantastic addition trade from a position of power. I dont think he has the upside of the other 4 guys, but i think his floor is the highest.

On the back end

Mintyukov, Zellweger, Helleson, Lacombe, Luneau have all showed they are NHL talents, and its basically about how they continue to develop and take the next steps.

The reality is most of these guys are 21 and under, exceptions being Zegras Lacombe and Helleson.... just got to continue be patient, and try to add talent around them.


Coach would be a good change too.

I'm not sure I buy that argument given OP's question. Detroit didn't get a 1st OA pick. Neither did Ottawa. Montreal got a 1st OA pick in the draft with the biggest question mark in that spot in at least a decade. Columbus has almost legendary poor draft lottery luck.

Not getting a 1st when an elite talent is available hurts, but other rebuilding teams are making noise in similar or worse situations. Other teams are just in bigger hockey markets and have young players who are really standing out (Raymond, Seider, Stutzle, Caufield, Hutson, Marchenko, Voronkov, etc.) in a way that none of Anaheim's are right now.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I'm not sure I buy that argument given OP's question. Detroit didn't get a 1st OA pick. Neither did Ottawa. Montreal got a 1st OA pick in the draft with the biggest question mark in that spot in at least a decade. Columbus has almost legendary poor draft lottery luck.

Not getting a 1st when an elite talent is available hurts, but other rebuilding teams are making noise in similar or worse situations. Other teams are just in bigger hockey markets and have young players who are really standing out (Raymond, Seider, Stutzle, Caufield, Hutson, Marchenko, Voronkov, etc.) in a way that none of Anaheim's are right now.

I mean were in the same posistion as Detroit/Ott/Montreal/Columbus.

Dostal/Lacombe have been stand out young players, zegras stood out until he hit injury wall.... rest of the guys are still much younger than a lot of the people you just listed.

We extended our rebuild, by never committing to the rebuild when BM was here.