What were the major changes between the Senators roster in 2003 compared to their roster in 2004 when Toronto defeated them in the playoffs? If it was basically the same maybe Toronto wins a 2003 playoff series against them.
The Senators' roster in 2003 was nearly identical to that of 2004. Still Lalime in net. They dropped Rachunek & Hnidy and added de Vries on the back-end, but otherwise the same. Up front they lost Arvedson & van Allen, but brought in Bondra & Vermette. So no major changes in personnel.
The teams finished with different numbers of points, the '03 Sens with 113, the '04 Sens with 102. But when you adjust for goal differential & strength of schedule, they both come out with an identical 0.88 SRS (a rating system that Hockey-Reference put together). In fact, the teams are eerily similar.
Category | 2002-03 | 2003-04 |
SRS | 0.88 | 0.88 |
GF | 263 | 262 |
GA | 182 | 189 |
Sv% | .910 | .907 |
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
The main difference was that the Senators got slightly better goaltending in 2002-03, allowed a few less goals, and thus had a couple more wins than ties/OTL to grab those eleven points. Pretty much identical rosters and identical results (even down to shots for & against).
So absolutely, the 2002-03 Toronto Maple Leafs could've have beaten the Ottawa Senators in a playoff series. Any team can win any playoff series, even if they get majorly outplayed. It is no secret that the NHL is kind of known for upsets, and the fact that anything can happen between any two teams in a series as short as best-of-seven. However, I still wouldn't think that it is likely Toronto would've beaten Ottawa in 2003. Even in the 2003-04 series, Toronto won, but were significantly outplayed. They were outshot 238-154 over the course of seven games (an average of 34-22 per game). Now, in that series, Belfour stood on his head, pitched three shutouts, and had a .954 SV%, but that is highly unusual, and not likely repeatable. If you replayed that series ten times more, Ottawa likely wins most of them.
That being said, the 2003-04 Leafs were better than the 2002-03 Leafs as well. They were actually outshooting opponents, finished with a nearly double SRS (0.26 vs 0.48), went from a +28 GD to a +38 GD despite dropping from .914 goaltending to .906 goaltending. Their special teams were better, they were playing more disciplined hockey (taking an excess of only ~1 PIM per game over their opponent, opposed to ~3 the past season), and their roster was better. They swapped out Svehla, Wesley, Lumme, & Housley for Leetch, Marchment, Klee, & Johansson. Up front they retained the same top six from '03 (Sundin, Mogilny, Roberts, Tucker, Nolan, & Reichel), while adding Francis, Nieuwendyk, & Ponikarovsky to the fold. They lost Hoglund & Corson, but brought in Kilger & Stajan.
So all in all, the Leafs team that was better in '04 still got dominated by the Senators, but thanks to Belfour standing on his head, squeaked out the Round 1 win. I'm not inclined to believe that a worse Leafs' roster in '03 would be able to outplay the Senators, or would get as lucky with 3 shutouts from Belfour. It is possible, but not probable.