Do shots matter!
As a high function autistic child I was raised around the greatest thinkers of the 20th century. Friends of my father. Who worked on the design of:
Avro Arrow: (50’s)basis of all modern delta jets.
Area 25: (50’s/60’s) magnetically guided nuclear powered rockets ( deep space travel)
App0llo program: Lunar lander/ service module
Hawk missle retro fit ( to self guided radar)
ERTS: latter called Landsat Satellite program design.
Mag lev train: Commisioning.
Canada arm: Commisioning
ETC.......
They are Triarchial thinkers. Design, Build (Maintain), operate.
They taught me Multivariable thinking.
At a very young age I realized the binary differentiation is a fools game. 50-51 yrs ago around age 4-5 I started to observe my surroundings.
Like my father & friends
I started to take a multivariable Machine action Sequence of events ( SOE) look at sport outcomes. (proprietary theory)
2 critical paths of Action. (Proprietary theory)
Corsi to Corsi: multivariable results.
Corsi ( puck release) to Outcome: multivariable results.
Their can be varying differentiated outcomes in varying Human machine situations.
In 07-08 I presented a grouping of expected performance averages based on 3 diffrent Series of Situation permutations based on Desjardins Team, comp, ZS.
All the binary Permutation people were resistant to it.
However was able to establish expected performance origional based on 8 team x 8 comp x 8 ZS = 512 difrent expected averages.
Later reduced to 4 team (1st,2nd,3rd, 4th line), 4 comp and 6 ZS
96 diffrent expected averages.
Evp/60 varied from 3.15 to .34
+/- goal dif from -26 to +30
Their is no regression to a common average.
They said their was not enough data to regress to a mean.
That is a binary thought process.
You do not reduce analytical resolution to find answers. ( proprietary theory)
You increase The number of variables affecting SOE to come to greater differentiation to first see if their are large affect actors. Some as great as 500%.( proprietary theory)
When you look at a sport like Baseball a largely binary SOE sport. Most teams perform high actors the same way as best as Personel allows.( proprietary theory)
Having shot squirrels ( eat what you kill) at a young age (4-5)
I understood targeting.
I Visually Realized the concept of success rate based on distance and hitting target space. 2 seperate factors.
One a density
and
one a location differentiation.
This is understood by man 10s of thousand of years ago.
49+ yr ago I observed the violence of Flin Flon bombers being about attacking and defending the area in front of the net.
Homeplate theory: ( Proprietary Theory)
Called ( Rickisbox) by blogger on Lowetide.
I realized this was a mass theory.
Shot success Density x shot volume = goal Mass
this lead to a multitude of theories listed below (all proprietary)
- Fwd Team, Comp, NZ def and Coach Face off ZS and Bench change with or without pocession is minimum resolution for determining expected CF and CA.
- Forwards have greater than 100% affect on zone penetration and dictate CF and CA
- avg HD shot ( homeplate) goes in 500% more than avg LD SH ( perimeter) at even.
-d pairs establish expected save% baseline for goalies to perform around based on release point of Corsi.
- goalie performance is a +/- ve save% measure relative to save% baseline established by Dpair.(SOE)
- Elite HD area Dmen.
- Dmen performance must be Measured to their defensive side (higher resolution)
- Flin Flon Bomber tough: Dmen who prevent penetration of Homeplate and forwards who Penetrate homeplate.
- Dmen have an individual expected save% baseline to their side that regresses to their own mean. Cause of multivariable affect.
- forwards regress to their own sustainable shot density based on homeplate.
- listing expected goals shows a complete lack of understanding of the 3 seperate ( not 2) sustainable individual averages for position groups.
Forwards ( expected goals)
Dmen ( baseline save%)
Goalies (+/- measure relative to baseLine save%)
- PDO is embarrassing and provides zero value by not differentiating dman and Goalie performance to each side.
- Offensive Dmen are a forward/ dman hybrid (Rover) who occupy a large% of Forward space.
-Rover off performance must be measured versus forwards.
- most Rovers ( all but top 5-10 each yr) perform at a 4 th line forward even off pace.
- Rovers abandon defence of Homeplate a lot resulting in a high% 3F - 1R - 1D - 1G structure.
- 7 of every 8 final 4 teams are top GA teams that run a higher % of 2D - 1G defence of Homeplate.
- High% 3-1-1-1 structure can be successful in reg season but will usually be weeded out by first 2 rounds in playoffs. See TML.
Do shots matter?
Ah yes?
but!
What about the second action of targeting
45+ yr ago I was playing road hockey with a younger Ron Gunville ( player Personel director of WHL Champ PA Raiders).
All theories below are proprietary theory based on this observation.
- Ron moved with the ball like a table hockey goalie. (
-The ball hit him the goalie at a high rate.
-the ball had 0% chance of going in.
- it’s shot density was 0
- it was a closed shot.
- Corsi that have 0% chance of going in are closed Corsi.
- Closed Corsi = ( blocks + misses + closed shots)
- open shots: shots that hit open open space I. Net elevation.
- you must exclude all closed shot data from analytics to get a true shot density map.
- the new open shot density map must be a combination of 2 densities x/y location from point of Corsi and x,y location in open space in net elevation.
-all current shot based analytics is highly in accurate.
-Elite closed Corsi Dmen: have the highest% of closed Corsi/ corsi faced( caused by fwds).
Dmen like Languay, Stevens, Kris Russell.
-Rovers yeild the highest% of free path open shot densities to their abandoned side.
- Rovers have the worst baseline save% to their side.
-Many Norris winning rovers are the worst defencemen. Having bottom 40 baseline save%
You must not exclude large affect factors in any analytical analysis.
Until all teams chase Personel to play large affect multivariable factors the same way, current small affect binary analysis ( table scraps) is minimal value and high inaccurate.
Open shots matter!
You want Dmen that reduce the open shot density:
Larsson, Benning, Russel, Chara, ........
Not brutal open shot density Dmen who chase offence like
Karlsson, Reilly, Barrie, Giordano, Burns, Klefbom, Bear,
You want elite +ve open shot save% goalies.
Analytics is largely coach & forward driven Corsi to Corsi.
Running NZ transition is a large actor.
Analytics from Corsi to outcome is a complex multi variant SOE.
these are just a few of the multitude of Proprietary Theories of mine.
That lead to my repetative cup core roster theory.
That Vegas selected 100% of the players available in expansion draft that fit that theory.
That I stated on this site in April, before expansion draft, would likely be 2D-1G cup final team.