Whose 894 will be better?

[PrimumHockeyist]

It seems like a slam dunk that Ovi matches Gretzky's 894.

My question is if anyone things one 894 is more impressive than the other.

With all due respect to the Great One, I'm leaning in the Great 8's favour on this one.

The difference for me is the goaltending.

I dont' see any room for the usually sound argument here which says that one can't compare eras. In goaltending, I think you can and the difference seems huge.

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[Hockey Outsider]

Ovechkin is on the verge of matching Gretzky's 894 goals, in approximately the same number of games, in a scoring environment that's approximately 20% lower. Ovechkin has already surprassed Gretzky as the greater goal-scorer, and I'm not sure if it's even particularly close anymore.

It's literally true that 894 > 860-something. But if we're just comparing stats, devoid of any context, that would lead to plainly false conclusion (ie Mike Gartner > Mario Lemieux, Patrick Marleau > Mike Bossy, etc).

Can we still make a case for Gretzky > Ovechkin? I think there are three arguments, but none of them are great:

1. Specialization - Gretzky could have scored more, had he not focused so much on passing. That's probably true, but I find this too speculative. (Gretzky is by far the better playmaker, and overall offensive talent, so he already gets credit for this).
2. Playoffs - Gretzky scored quite a bit more in the playoffs. (Even on a per game basis, he's ahead 0.59 vs 0.48). But that's mostly explained by the difference in the scoring environment. Gretzky obviously maintained this on deeper playoff runs (Ovechkin only made it out of the second round once). I can accept Gretzky as being better in the postseason, but not nearly enough to make up for the regular season gap.
3. Peak - their best seasons (1982 vs 2008) are roughly even. Ovechkin, obviously, is way ahead if you're looking at, say, their 7th or 12th or 16th best seasons. Gretzky is probably ahead if you're looking at their 2nd, 3rd and 4th best years. He had a really high peak, while Ovechkin had a ridiculously long, consistent prime. If you really value peak above all else, I can see the case for Gretzky, but it's a weak one.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Ovechkin did it against better goalies, while Gretzky did it with a wooden stick and the 2 line pass. Gotta consider all kinds of context if we're going down THAT road

 

[MadLuke]

The obvious answer seem to be Ovechkin, but in a way because of the 1991 injury there is a faint argument for Gretzky.

One way to look at it, from 80 to 99, most goals:

Gretzky: 894
Gartner: 708 (0.79)
Lemieux: 613 (0.69)
Messier: 610 (0.68)
Ciccare: 608 (0.68)

2006 to today
Ovechkin: 868
Crosby..: 600 (0.69)
Stamkos.: 562 (0.65)
Malkin..: 503 (0.58)
Pavelski: 476 (0.55)

When it come to the elite specially for something like goal scoring, I am fully open that strength of competition change a bit and when you start your career as a comparable make things move and because of the lock-out year maybe Ovechkin started a particularly good year to separate himself from that pack.

But if you say Gretzky was more impressive, we need to reassess Gartner career I feel like and what about Ciccarelli, are all those name all better scorer than all Ovechkin competition by a good amount ?

The only argument about Gretzky being more impressive would be in the what if sense because of Suter injury, but in general all time totals take not being injured in their impressiveness and he already declined a bit goal scoring wise pre-injury, if he score 30-40 more goals without it, Ovechkin would still more impressive and he had to lead the league in goals like 9 times to do it.

 

[PrimumHockeyist]

1. Specialization - Gretzky could have scored more, had he not focused so much on passing. That's probably true, but I find this too speculative. (Gretzky is by far the better playmaker, and overall offensive talent, so he already gets credit for this).

I see this as a significant consideration in Gretzky's favour. It seemed like there came a point mid-career where he became more of a pass-first guy. This surely cost him dozens of goals. We'd only7 need 8 dozen to get around 1000. edit - then again. to MadLuke's point, the 1991 injury might make that very tough.

 

[Doctor Coffin]

Gotta consider all kinds of context if we're going down THAT road

Exactly that. Ovechkin is on the verge of doing it in an era of relatively touch-free defense, but against b̶e̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶g̶o̶a̶l̶i̶e̶s̶ goalies with a monumental advantage in terms of size, equipment and conditioning practices.

 

[Vilica]

1. Peak - their best seasons (1982 vs 2008) are roughly even. Ovechkin, obviously, is way ahead if you're looking at, say, their 7th or 12th or 16th best seasons. Gretzky is probably ahead if you're looking at their 2nd, 3rd and 4th best years. He had a really high peak, while Ovechkin had a ridiculously long, consistent prime. If you really value peak above all else, I can see the case for Gretzky, but it's a weak one.

I wouldn't call these rankings canon, but here's how Ovechkin/Gretzky's seasons fared when I applied Average VsX to goal totals.

Ovechkin	Year	Avg GVsX		Gretzky	Year	Avg GVsX
4	07-08	141.11		5	81-82	138.75
18	12-13	121.99		8	83-84	133.29
28	14-15	117.70		43	84-85	113.64
32	08-09	115.86		53	82-83	111.24
48	13-14	112.74		107	86-87	102.10
50	19-20	111.72		304	79-80	87.87
58	15-16	110.53		314	88-89	87.43
82	09-10	106.64		327	80-81	86.73
114	05-06	101.51		493	85-86	79.42
123	18-19	101.19		728	90-91	71.92
135	17-18	98.84		876	93-94	67.64
183	21-22	94.93		947	89-90	65.64
186	06-07	94.36		957	87-88	65.20
554	16-17	71.64		1331	91-92	53.99
634	10-11	69.16		1417	97-98	51.55
				1437	96-97	50.64
				1629	95-96	43.16
				1708	94-95	37.24

Those rankings are all-time of all seasons post 1933-34. Gretzky has 2 in the top 10 compared to Ovechkin's 1, but his 3rd-5th best seasons are lower, and he falls off a cliff after that, with 13 of Ovechkin's seasons better than Gretzky's 7th best.

[The reason I wouldn't consider these rankings canon is because I repurposed my Average VsX spreadsheet from goals to points, but never finished updating the top 20 point scorers to top 20 goal scorers. It's probably 80-90% accurate for the top end (especially for older players), because normally the top goal scorers also finish in the top 20 of points, but every Gretzky season above 728 is borderline top 20 in goals, and would get kicked out of the rankings for seasons that finished top 20. This is why Ovechkin's 11-12 season is missing, because he was 37th in points, even though he finished 5th in goals. That season would finish 370th in the rankings were it inputted.]

 

[Hobnobs]

The obvious answer seem to be Ovechkin, but in a way because of the 1991 injury there is a faint argument for Gretzky.

One way to look at it, from 80 to 99, most goals:

Gretzky: 894
Gartner: 708 (0.79)
Lemieux: 613 (0.69)
Messier: 610 (0.68)
Ciccare: 608 (0.68)

2006 to today
Ovechkin: 868
Crosby..: 600 (0.69)
Stamkos.: 562 (0.65)
Malkin..: 503 (0.58)
Pavelski: 476 (0.55)

When it come to the elite specially for something like goal scoring, I am fully open that strength of competition change a bit and when you start your career as a comparable make things move and because of the lock-out year maybe Ovechkin started a particularly good year to separate himself from that pack.

But if you say Gretzky was more impressive, we need to reassess Gartner career I feel like and what about Ciccarelli, are all those name all better scorer than all Ovechkin competition by a good amount ?

The only argument about Gretzky being more impressive would be in the what if sense because of Suter injury, but in general all time totals take not being injured in their impressiveness and he already declined a bit goal scoring wise pre-injury, if he score 30-40 more goals without it, Ovechkin would still more impressive and he had to lead the league in goals like 9 times to do it.

I question if Ciccare was even better than Fumare?

Non tutte le ciambelle riescono col buco

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[The Panther]

Ovechkin's 894 (assuming he gets there) will be more impressive.

But Gretzky's 1 to 700 is more impressive.