Sens started the year off rough. Once they hit December, they became super streaky. Two 6-game winning streaks and a 5 gamer, and on the other side, had a 6 game losing streak around the 4 nations break, and a 4 gamer around the new year.
But ultimately, since Dec 1 (43/44 GP for most teams), the Sens are 5th in points percentage at .651. The 4 teams ahead of them are Washington, Winnipeg, Colorado and Dallas. The 5 teams right behind them are Tampa, Vegas Edmonton, Florida and Carolina. Leafs are in 13th, just behind LAK and MTL with a .602 points percentage.
I'm not trying to say OTT is the harder matchup, cause I'm admittedly biased. But just to show that the last half of the season or so, OTT has been a little better overall. They have grown a lot since the bad streak in November, their A game is better but their B game is miles ahead.
I'd much rather play Stolarz/Woll over Ullmark in a series, but more importantly Matthews is definitely hurt, if he isn't his normal self, that alone might be enough to take OTT at this point. He's the X factor.