Who would you choose at this point. Toronto or Montreal ?

[JoelWarlord]

I think gun to my head I still pick Toronto but I don't get the posts in here acting like it's clearly Toronto and you're a deluded homer if you think otherwise. If I'm just picking which roster to take over as an armchair GM it's Toronto easily, but if we're saying which organization should we choose, picking the Leafs includes Treliving for another 2-3 seasons at minimum at a pretty pivotal time in their core where Marner and Tavares need new contracts and the early Treliving era does not exactly fill me with confidence that Treliving is going to be able to pull off the kind of moves Colorado did to get Kadri and now Mittelstadt, or the kind of bottom nine makeover that Colorado pulled off in the last year, let alone the stuff Vegas does.

Before I get called a delusional homer fefan RDS facebook post commenter I'm not saying that the Habs definitively have a better front office either. I'm saying it's still early and we don't know how the Hughes/Gorton era will play out or how they'll operate once we're out of the tanking phase, but we do have enough information to say Treliving is mediocre at best which in my view mitigates a lot of the Toronto advantage in terms of certainty with their core players' ceilings.

You're 100% mixing up their roster and their management.

Good teams with a core that strong and *good* management find ways to make room and fix (or attempt to fix) those issues. Vegas, Avalanches, Tampa, etc. Somehow those guys are all capped out of their mind yet they always manage to find ways to do great patchwork

Vegas and Colorado haven't burned through all their draft capital on 40 year old rentals though. Colorado traded 2nds for Devon Toews, traded Byram for Mittelstadt, and traded to get and retain Girard and Manson for meaningful roles. Toronto traded 1sts for rentals like O'Reilly and Foligno, traded a billion 2nds and 3rds for depth rentals, etc. Meanwhile, Vegas traded Smith to make cap room this summer after winning a cup and are about to kick Marchessault to the curb to make room for Hertl, while Toronto couldn't even stomach the idea of potentially losing William Nylander so they gave him 8 years of David Pastrnak money with a NMC in January.

Part of Toronto's problem is that they're NOT run like Vegas, Colorado, or Tampa. They've decided that these 4 forwards and Rielly are their guys, and at every turn they just keep handing them big extensions and tinkering with their secondary pieces.

 

[The Great Weal]

The boys in 2017: Im taking the Habs over the Avs all day! Their window is closing, the Habs have a great team!

Even though I'd still take them over us, the Leaf's future looks extremely questionable. They have zero defense after Rielly and I'm not even exaggerating, their top young guys are Minten/Cowan/Knies who are realistically more middle 6 type players, and still don't have a quality goalie. The Avs in 2017 had a rookie Rantanen, Landeskog who had a brutal year, and a top 4 pick. I don't really think it's a good comparison.

This is not to say that the Habs future isn't questionable either. If Caufield is merely a 65 point player we're in bad shape. Dach has serious injury issues and people think he can be a 1C because of some preseason games. Slaf looks great, but it's still more of a wait and see with him. We don't have a single dman in the organization that you'd be comfortable playing 25 minutes a night to be the #1 PK, PP, and ES guy at the same time on a legit cup contender.

 

[Mrb1p]

Even though I'd still take them over us, the Leaf's future looks extremely questionable. They have zero defense after Rielly and I'm not even exaggerating, their top young guys are Minten/Cowan/Knies who are realistically more middle 6 type players, and still don't have a quality goalie. The Avs in 2017 had a rookie Rantanen, Landeskog who had a brutal year, and a top 4 pick. I don't really think it's a good comparison.

This is not to say that the Habs future isn't questionable either. If Caufield is merely a 65 point player we're in bad shape. Dach has serious injury issues and people think he can be a 1C because of some preseason games. Slaf looks great, but it's still more of a wait and see with him. We don't have a single dman in the organization that you'd be comfortable playing 25 minutes a night to be the #1 PK, PP, and ES guy at the same time on a legit cup contender.

The Avs were in forever purgatory and Mack was a 50 pts player, it is 100% a simialr situation.

The Leafs arent in the best spot, but neither are the Habs, and Leafs have actual talent to work with. The Habs have Suzuki and Slaf.

 

[JoelWarlord]

The Avs were in forever purgatory and Mack was a 50 pts player, it is 100% a simialr situation.

Not really unless you think the Leafs have a Cale Makar type of player on the way and that Knies is about to have the 38P to 84P season jump that Rantanen had. Colorado didn't just organically figure it out with the same core, they had Rantanen and Makar emerge as new core pieces and Toronto has nobody in that stratosphere at all. They haven't shown a Vegas/Florida style tendency to be aggressive in trades and find players like that through other routes either.

 

[The Great Weal]

The Avs were in forever purgatory and Mack was a 50 pts player, it is 100% a simialr situation.

I mean they also added Cale Makar in that draft, that would change any franchise. As mentioned, Rantanen was a rookie too. That roster wasn't even close to being at its peak given that they made many changes. Leafs are stuck given that they have no picks, poor prospects, and their best players are already at their peak.

 

[Jee]

I mean they also added Cale Makar in that draft, that would change any franchise. As mentioned, Rantanen was a rookie too. That roster wasn't even close to being at its peak given that they made many changes. Leafs are stuck given that they have no picks, poor prospects, and their best players are already at their peak.

Toronto could fumble next year, WTK would be like "OMG TOLD YOU SO", and then they draft their Makar and win a cup within 2 years.

We don't know what can happen in the next 10 years, but Toronto's core is 100% better than ours. It will be easier for them to win in the next 10 years than it is for us.

 

[FerrisRox]

I think gun to my head I still pick Toronto but I don't get the posts in here acting like it's clearly Toronto and you're a deluded homer if you think otherwise. If I'm just picking which roster to take over as an armchair GM it's Toronto easily

If I said to you that this summer you had to take over the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Montreal Canadiens, and if you could make one of those teams win a Stanley Cup in the next ten years, I would give you a $10 million bonus, for you that choice would be Toronto, and easily?

 

[WeThreeKings]

Toronto could fumble next year, WTK would be like "OMG TOLD YOU SO", and then they draft their Makar and win a cup within 2 years.

We don't know what can happen in the next 10 years, but Toronto's core is 100% better than ours. It will be easier for them to win in the next 10 years than it is for us.

Yeah or the Habs could win the lottery pick Celebrini, and then get James Hagens next year and win the cup within 2 years.

All we have is the evidence on the table today.. and the evidence of the Leafs is that while the Leafs core is better than ours in the regular season, there's no evidence to suggest they elevate themselves the requisite amount to win two playoff series, let alone 4.

I don't trust their front office. I don't trust their core. I don't see how they put together a better roster than they've had. They don't have any elite prospects in their system and they have barely any draft capital to do anything major.

Their core has made it clear their career earnings are more important than winning, which good for them, get the bag, I don't care.. but the situation has changed in Toronto over the last 4-5 seasons and it's not a situation I would pick over a clean slate that Montreal has with the talent already in house, the draft picks, cap flexibility, prospect depth and a much more astute management group.

 

[Mrb1p]

No interest in Hyman.. we have tons of players like him and he's not gonna produce that amount not playing with 2 franchise talents.

Hall won't come here.

So it's Saad or Schwartz.

@Summer 2021, always remember.

Not really unless you think the Leafs have a Cale Makar type of player on the way and that Knies is about to have the 38P to 84P season jump that Rantanen had. Colorado didn't just organically figure it out with the same core, they had Rantanen and Makar emerge as new core pieces and Toronto has nobody in that stratosphere at all. They haven't shown a Vegas/Florida style tendency to be aggressive in trades and find players like that through other routes either.

None of this was true in 2017. Makar was a nobody, he was playing AJHL and almost no one had him as a true difference maker. Rantanen had an okay rookie season but nothing more.

The point is exactly that, we dont know anything about the future and its better to go with talent than not.

I mean they also added Cale Makar in that draft, that would change any franchise. As mentioned, Rantanen was a rookie too. That roster wasn't even close to being at its peak given that they made many changes. Leafs are stuck given that they have no picks, poor prospects, and their best players are already at their peak.

Yes they did, but in 2017 they added a kid from the AJHL that nobody knew aside from a few of us. They looked like the Sabres of this year, which was the point.

Go with talent, always.

 

[The Great Weal]

Toronto could fumble next year, WTK would be like "OMG TOLD YOU SO", and then they draft their Makar and win a cup within 2 years.

We don't know what can happen in the next 10 years, but Toronto's core is 100% better than ours. It will be easier for them to win in the next 10 years than it is for us.

I don't disagree. I don't get the shitting on Matthews who's a 65 goalscorer when our own Caufield is like a 65 point scorer. They have the superstar talent which automatically puts them ahead. They have done a disastrous job of supporting them and it's gotten even worse now with no assets and key dmen like Muzzin/Brodie essentially becoming fringe NHLers now.

Yes they did, but in 2017 they added a kid from the AJHL that nobody knew aside from a few of us. They looked like the Sabres of this year, which was the point.

Go with talent, always.

Right, but if the Leafs have a top 4 pick+rookie Rantanen+young Landeskog who put up multiple 60+ point seasons before his awful year, then yes the future looks much better instead of having Matthews/Rielly/Marner/Nylander in their mid-late 20s and nothing else. Not to mention that the top 4 pick isn't like any other top 4 pick. Makar is a top 5 player in the whole league which nobody saw coming.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

If I said to you that this summer you had to take over the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Montreal Canadiens, and if you could make one of those teams win a Stanley Cup in the next ten years, I would give you a $10 million bonus, for you that choice would be Toronto, and easily?

It would have been a reasonable choice then. Treliving was new and he might have been able to do a better job than Dubas of adding missing pieces (like a goaltender). And Keefe might have been fired. It is obvious now Treliving is no better than Dubas or a Shanahan puppet. Not moving at least Minten and/or a low 1st is a loser move. I would even take Anaheim over the Leafs now.

 

[Sorinth]

If I said to you that this summer you had to take over the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Montreal Canadiens, and if you could make one of those teams win a Stanley Cup in the next ten years, I would give you a $10 million bonus, for you that choice would be Toronto, and easily?

The problem is one reason to pick Montreal over Toronto is management and that's ignored in the proposed situation.

 

[FerrisRox]

The problem is one reason to pick Montreal over Toronto is management and that's ignored in the proposed situation.

My choice would be about young building blocks, prospects/picks and cap space. Management wouldn't matter much to me in this hypothetical.

The Toronto situation is such a mess in terms of cap tied up in the wrong guys for way too long with way too many factors that make trading any of them for good value seriously compromised.

 

[WeThreeKings]

My choice would be about young building blocks, prospects/picks and cap space. Management wouldn't matter much to me in this hypothetical.

The Toronto situation is such a mess in terms of cap tied up in the wrong guys for way too long with way too many factors that make trading any of them for good value seriously compromised.

Can't even trade them.. Marner and Nylander have iron clad their contracts. We see what happens when you have players controlling their destiny, you get pennies on the dollar. No leverage on any of those guys.

 

[Mrb1p]

I don't disagree. I don't get the shitting on Matthews who's a 65 goalscorer when our own Caufield is like a 65 point scorer. They have the superstar talent which automatically puts them ahead. They have done a disastrous job of supporting them and it's gotten even worse now with no assets and key dmen like Muzzin/Brodie essentially becoming fringe NHLers now.

Right, but if the Leafs have a top 4 pick+rookie Rantanen+young Landeskog who put up multiple 60+ point seasons before his awful year, then yes the future looks much better instead of having Matthews/Rielly/Marner/Nylander in their mid-late 20s and nothing else. Not to mention that the top 4 pick isn't like any other top 4 pick. Makar is a top 5 player in the whole league which nobody saw coming.

They have Matthews, Marner and Nylander thsts better than anything they had at that point.

Its like we forget those players are legit first liners?

 

[JoelWarlord]

If I said to you that this summer you had to take over the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Montreal Canadiens, and if you could make one of those teams win a Stanley Cup in the next ten years, I would give you a $10 million bonus, for you that choice would be Toronto, and easily?

I think so (although by saying that I guess I'm already hedging on "easily"). It's a slightly tricky question to answer as an outsider because we don't actually know how much ownership control there is and that does impact things (if I'm not allowed to trade the big guns in Toronto I'd go with Montreal), but in broad terms as an armchair GM I would take the certainty at having an elite core group in Toronto over the clean slate with less certainty over core player ceilings in Montreal.

While writing this post I've walked myself back from "easily" since I think actually pulling off the trade(s) that Toronto needs could be extremely difficult, but I still would take Toronto in this situation because I just value certainty in these situations. I also think Toronto has some juice to be unlocked with a coaching change and I'd have no loyalty to Keefe.

None of this was true in 2017. Makar was a nobody, he was playing AJHL and almost no one had him as a true difference maker. Rantanen had an okay rookie season but nothing more.

The point is exactly that, we dont know anything about the future and its better to go with talent than not.

"What if Toronto adds a generational defenceman into their lineup and manifests a Rantanen out of thin air" is not really "betting on talent" though. I'm not really sure how you could reasonably argue that the Avalanche having a bad year and picking a good player 4th overall and having a 38P D+2 season from a 6'3 215 LW drafted out of Finland develop into an elite player in his D+3 is somehow a reason to lean toward Toronto and not Montreal.

I just don't really get this argument. Any team would have their fortunes completely changed by Makar and Rantanen type developments and Toronto is one of the least likely teams in the league to get that kind of windfall at the draft table given where they are in their competitive cycle and how many picks they've added.

 

[The Great Weal]

They have Matthews, Marner and Nylander thsts better than anything they had at that point.

Its like we forget those players are legit first liners?

Sure you can say that those three are comparable to the Avs three forwards, but again, a top 4 pick that ends up becoming a top 5 player in the league is something that the Leafs don't have.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Can't even trade them.. Marner and Nylander have iron clad their contracts. We see what happens when you have players controlling their destiny, you get pennies on the dollar. No leverage on any of those guys.

Hoping HuGo never give a NTC or NMC. Just pay a premium to get them to forego them.

 

[McGees]

No point comparing them at this stage but:

MTL better:
Defence
Coaching
Management

TOR better:
Forwards / elite talent
perhaps better drafting?

Toronto window is still open for like 5 years or something so they still have a shot to win.
We still need some top end pieces before we even talk about being a contender.

 

[Mrb1p]

I think so (although by saying that I guess I'm already hedging on "easily"). It's a slightly tricky question to answer as an outsider because we don't actually know how much ownership control there is and that does impact things (if I'm not allowed to trade the big guns in Toronto I'd go with Montreal), but in broad terms as an armchair GM I would take the certainty at having an elite core group in Toronto over the clean slate with less certainty over core player ceilings in Montreal.

While writing this post I've walked myself back from "easily" since I think actually pulling off the trade(s) that Toronto needs could be extremely difficult, but I still would take Toronto in this situation because I just value certainty in these situations. I also think Toronto has some juice to be unlocked with a coaching change and I'd have no loyalty to Keefe.

"What if Toronto adds a generational defenceman into their lineup and manifests a Rantanen out of thin air" is not really "betting on talent" though. I'm not really sure how you could reasonably argue that the Avalanche having a bad year and picking a good player 4th overall and having a 38P D+2 season from a 6'3 215 LW drafted out of Finland develop into an elite player in his D+3 is somehow a reason to lean toward Toronto and not Montreal.

I just don't really get this argument. Any team would have their fortunes completely changed by Makar and Rantanen type developments and Toronto is one of the least likely teams in the league to get that kind of windfall at the draft table given where they are in their competitive cycle and how many picks they've added.

The point is... they have three THREE FOR CHRISTS SAKES players on oace for 100 points or more, including the 2nd best goalscorer in the last forty years.

What the f*** are we even saying we prefer Nick Suzuki and the band? Like come on man.

Sure you can say that those three are comparable to the Avs three forwards, but again, a top 4 pick that ends up becoming a top 5 player in the league is something that the Leafs don't have.

No, instead they already have two/three top wtv player, lol.

Again, THREE f***ing 100 points player??? The Habs havent had one since 86.

EIGHTY-SIX

 

[The Great Weal]

No, instead they already have two/three top wtv player, lol.

Again, THREE f***ing 100 points player??? The Habs havent had one since 86.

EIGHTY-SIX

So do the Avs lol. Again, adding a Cale Makar is a lot more different than adding a Matthew Knies.

 

[LaP]

No point comparing them at this stage but:

MTL better:
Defence
Coaching
Management

TOR better:
Forwards / elite talent
perhaps better drafting?

Toronto window is still open for like 5 years or something so they still have a shot to win.
We still need some top end pieces before we even talk about being a contender.

They have drafted well lately. Cowan, Minten and Knies are really good prospects considering the position the Laffs drafted. Niemela is doing well in the AHL and had a great junior career. Will take a few years but their core is young enough. I hate to say it but the Laffs position is not as bad as people think it is. Yes Marner, Mathews and Nylander will be paid more but the cap will increase. Tavares will be also paid less after his contract expires. Brodie's contract also ends this year. They were basically paying 5 millions for a bottom 3 dman.

But they have terrible management. That's their main problem atm.

 

[General Fanager]

Toronto has the better top end players no question but The Habs have the better cap situation going forward......

 

[JoelWarlord]

The point is... they have three THREE FOR CHRISTS SAKES players on oace for 100 points or more, including the 2nd best goalscorer in the last forty years.

Yeah for sure. This point is exactly why I've said I would prefer to take over Toronto as an armchair GM. It's closer if we have to keep their current management because even if I don't think Hughes/Gorton are proven, I'll easily take them over the known quantity that is Treliving being mediocre/average at best. Gun to my head it's still Toronto even including current management for both teams, but I don't think it's as lopsided as you're presenting.

On the other topic I was specifically responding to the Makar/Rantanen stuff because saying "well they'll be even better if they get a Makar and Rantanen" is not betting on Toronto's talent at all, it's just handwaving two additional elite players into that core, and Montreal has far closer analogues to those players (and is still picking high + stockpiling picks) while Toronto is trading picks all over the place to plug roster holes with Edmundsons and Lybushkins.

 

[Mrb1p]

Yeah for sure. This point is exactly why I've said I would prefer to take over Toronto as an armchair GM. It's closer if we have to keep their current management because even if I don't think Hughes/Gorton are proven, I'll easily take them over the known quantity that is Treliving being mediocre/average at best. Gun to my head it's still Toronto even including current management for both teams, but I don't think it's as lopsided as you're presenting.

On the other topic I was specifically responding to the Makar/Rantanen stuff because saying "well they'll be even better if they get a Makar and Rantanen" is not betting on Toronto's talent at all, it's just handwaving two additional elite players into that core, and Montreal has far closer analogues to those players (and is still picking high + stockpiling picks) while Toronto is trading picks all over the place to plug roster holes with Edmundsons and Lybushkins.

Matthews is already one of those guys, and the point was about stagnation. The narrative around the Avs back then was a lot like what we see of Buffalo.

It doesnt matter if you cherry pick examples, the point is losers are losers until they win, and in general it rarely happens that a team doesnt win when they have players like AM WN and MM. All it takes is a hot goaltender and these guys have a one way ticket. (Same as Edmonton). On top of that, the Habs had Price in 2017, not the same make up on our side either, it just matters that we overrate our team and especially future assets A LOT.

Meanwhile, for all the love I have for Nick, Slaf, DR, Guhle and co.. cmon man, were not even close to comparing.