Who will win the Stanley Cup?

[flyfysher]

IMO Dallas is once again the most underrated team. The Central Division is so competitive though so who knows how much any of the teams will have left in the tank by the time they reach the conference finals.

I don’t think anyone is not giving the Stars their due. They have an incredibly talented team and could certainly win in the POs. It’s just that they’ve had some injuries to key players both on their front and back end such that they’re out in the near term. It wouldn’t bode well for any team in that position.

 

[Neil Racki]

Oilers

 

[Whoot Whoot]

I hate Tampa but they are my front runner

 

[algernon]

It's clearly going to be Washington with an Ovechkin *assist* on the game winner. Drai gets the Conn Smyth and smashes it like a guitar.

 

[maxim84]

Avs beating Carolina in the finals, and during the cup hoist nhl announcer asks "wonder what Mikko is doing right now?"

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Tampa vs Colorado final . As I leaf fan I hope I’m wrong but that’s what the tea leaves are saying

 

[Hank Plank]

Final results

 

[ant123]

Statistically, in post-lockout time, after introduction of salary cap, if we look at league standings at the end of the season, then half of cup winners are in top4 in that list in respective year.
If we look at conference standings, then half of cup winners were top2 in conference. If we look at division titles, then half of cup winners had division tittle that year.
So, there is statistical probability of 1/2 that winner will be one of jets, caps, kings or leafs. Odds in their favor.
And 1/2 for the rest 12 teams.

 

[ant123]

This is what math says
Important to note. It is chance to have winner in one of bins (1-4,5-8,9-12,13-16). Chances per team, roughly speaking, divide that by 4. To have more detailed picture - we just don't have enough of stats in post-lockout. Eventually, of course, we will see that inside of every bin there is a similar distribution, but it is too early, only 19 seasons.

 

[Gabrielor]

Colorado over Tampa

 

[ant123]

And similar one for conference bins. (top8 split into 4 bins). And divisions

 

[ant123]

So, yes, any team can we the Cup. But not with equal probability, like many like to think.
Regular season position has statistical correlation with chances, after all (which is common sense tells us too).
it is not me, it is math!
Pre-salary cap, or even pre-draft, would be even worse, AFAIR.

 

[ant123]

But, as we know, Dryden stopped Boston in 1971, Halak stopped caps in 2010. There is still anything can happen.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Who wins Caps vs canes. that will be a nasty series

 

[ant123]

Let's at first wait till Caps win vs Habs, and Canes win vs Devils

In any case, statistically, chances of Devils, Habs, Wild and Blues to win a cup are around 1/80. (While Jets, Caps, Leafs and Knights have chances around 1/8).
But they still can upset someone, before it all said and done.

 

[ant123]

And, one more historical stat. Chance of bottom-8 team to NOT win a cup - 0.85. (but it does not say, that chance to win is 0.15! Those 0.15 are divided among 8 teams).

 

[KAWAIlllI]

Interesting to see the first game between Florida and Tampa tonight, giving a better idea on the state of the East. Toronto, I think, have a real good shot this season to go far

 

[mydnyte]

likely whoever make it out of the Atlantic, IF the majority of their key players arent injured in the process.

 

[Chaos2k7]

Interesting to see the first game between Florida and Tampa tonight, giving a better idea on the state of the East. Toronto, I think, have a real good shot this season to go far

Muskoka isn't that far away

 

[ant123]

Interesting to see the first game between Florida and Tampa tonight, giving a better idea on the state of the East. Toronto, I think, have a real good shot this season to go far

I think there is like 50% chance that cap will go to Canada this year. Jets, Leafs are legit contenders and Oilers also have chance to surprise , if you ask me.

 

[StammerHammer]

I missed getting in the poll but of course it's the Lightning. You all haven't been paying attention to the fact that Vasy is playing up to his Conn Smythe level of good. And BTW Kuch is good.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

I missed getting in the poll but of course it's the Lightning. You all haven't been paying attention to the fact that Vasy is playing up to his Conn Smythe level of good. And BTW Kuch is good.

Great start to the Conn Smyth campaign in game 1 lol

 

[StammerHammer]

Great start to the Conn Smyth campaign in game 1 lol

Simply head shaking.

 

[jonlin]

That Panthers team is just nasty. They put the brakes on weeks before playoffs and rested key guys. Now when Tkachuk is back and a few players are rested, they are my favorite to win it all. And getting Ekblad back will help even more. Theres no real weakness on this team.

Verhaeghe - Barkov - Reinhart
Samoskevich - Bennett - Tkachuk
Luostarinen - Lundell - Marchand
Boqvist - Sturm - Rodrigues

Forsling - Jones
Mikkola - Ekblad
Kulikov - Schmidt

BobCop
Vanecek

 

[kevsh]

That Panthers team is just nasty. They put the brakes on weeks before playoffs and rested key guys. Now when Tkachuk is back and a few players are rested, they are my favorite to win it all. And getting Ekblad back will help even more. Theres no real weakness on this team.

Verhaeghe - Barkov - Reinhart
Samoskevich - Bennett - Tkachuk
Luostarinen - Lundell - Marchand
Boqvist - Sturm - Rodrigues

Forsling - Jones
Mikkola - Ekblad
Kulikov - Schmidt

BobCop
Vanecek

That would have been a far more insightful and possibly prophetic post if it was made 24 hours ago, you know, before the Cats mopped the floor with the Bolts.

Still, nothing you say is wrong.

Just keep in mind that if playoff history has taught us anything it's that there are a LOT of terrible, very wrong hot takes after the first game of a series.