Who will take the 2 wildcard spots in the Eastern Conference?

[Felidae]

More than halfway into the season.. who do you think will end up in the 2 wildcard spots by the end of the season?

Choose wisely as you won't be able to change your vote..

Click to read more...

 

[Schennanigans]

Rangers, Bruins

 

[Nogatco Rd]

IIRC my preseason picks to finish 4th and 5th in the Atlantic were Ottawa and Boston and I’ll stick with that here. M4 misses the playoffs.

Below are the moneypuck playoff probabilities as of Friday 1/17.

Interestingly their model is very low on CBJ, despite the fact they currently lead the WC race in points.

OTT 67%
BOS 53%
MTL 36%
PHI 25%
CBJ 15%
NYR 11%
DET 8%
NYI 7%
PIT 2%
BUF 1%

 

[jbeck5]

I always heard the best indicator when points percentage is so close half way through the season is goal differential...

This would mean Ottawa would more likely get in....BUT if I learned anything in the last almost decade is to bet AGAINST the sens. Lol

 

[jbeck5]

IIRC my preseason picks to finish 4th and 5th in the Atlantic were Ottawa and Boston and I’ll stick with that here. M4 misses the playoffs.

Below are the moneypuck playoff probabilities as of Friday 1/17.

Interestingly their model is very low on CBJ, despite the fact they currently lead the WC race in points.

OTT 67%
BOS 53%
MTL 36%
PHI 25%
CBJ 15%
NYR 11%
DET 8%
NYI 7%
PIT 2%
BUF 1%

They look at things like remainder of the schedule and how hard their games are and how many home and away games left.


If I remember correctly, Ottawa had most of their games against the top teams in the league in the first half as well as most of their away games...so the rest of the schedule has more home games and weaker opponents.

I wonder if Columbus is the opposite. I won't look at the difficulty of their opponents but I will check home/away

Fact check: I was correct.

Columbus has to play 3 more away games than home games for the rest of the season.

Ottawa has to play 4 more home games than away games for the rest of the season.

So they have a difference of 7 games when it comes to home/away...

And though the senators home and away record are closer (but still much better at home), the Blue jackets record at home vs away is drastically different...

Home: 16-5-3
Away: 6-12-3

So they look at stuff like this to make a much more accurate prediction than just extrapolating their current paces.

Also don't downplay the difficulty of opponents. For Ottawa, it was a major difference with the first half being significantly tougher than the second half. Everyone was talking about it all summer on the sens board since the schedule was released. (Though I'm basing this more off last year's standings than this year's)

 

[Nogatco Rd]

They look at things like remainder of the schedule and how hard their games are and how many home and away games left.


If I remember correctly, Ottawa had most of their games against the top teams in the league in the first half as well as most of their away games...so the rest of the schedule has more home games and weaker opponents.

I wonder if Columbus is the opposite. I won't look at the difficulty of their opponents but I will check home/away

Fact check: I was correct.

Columbus has to play 3 more away games than home games for the rest of the season.

Ottawa has to play 4 more home games than away games for the rest of the season.

So they have a difference of 7 games when it comes to home/away...

And though the senators home and away record are closer (but still much better at home), the Blue jackets record at home vs away is drastically different...

Home: 16-5-3
Away: 6-12-3

So they look at stuff like this to make a much more accurate prediction than just extrapolating their current paces.

Also don't downplay the difficulty of opponents. For Ottawa, it was a major difference with the first half being significantly tougher than the second half. Everyone was talking about it all summer on the sens board since the schedule was released. (Though I'm basing this more off last year's standings than this year's)

SOS plays into it but the biggest factor is CBJ’s poor underlying numbers at even strength. If you go to their power ranking CBJ is way down at 29th, largely due to their 46.7% EV expected goals share.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

...Columbus, cuz they deserve it this year...and...as a Habs fan:





Ottawa

 

[elmaco]

CBJ, MTL

 

[Wings4Life]

If Lumbus somehow makes the playoffs, I think Werenski should be in contention for the Hart Trophy.