Bergeron for me. He was better defensively and I'd call them even offensively with maybe a small advantage Kopitar. It gets lost to time how restrictive Bergeron's usage was in his prime under Julien.
2010-2015 is fair to call each of their peaks:
| Bergeron | Kopitar |
ES Points | 245 | 255 |
ES PPG | 0.56 | 0.57 |
Avg O-Zone % | 45% | 55% |
Avg PP TOI | 2:30 | 3:30 |
Avg TOI | 18:23 | 20:57 |
I don't know. Kopitar is an excellent defensive forward, but Bergeron was a generational defensive forward. He was off the charts. One of the very few difference makers who was noticeable to almost anyone and not just those with a scout's eye.
Think of Guy Charbonneau and why he was a more memorable and significant player, and why he makes more sense as a hipster HHOF pick than dozens of other forwards who were merely good/great defensively and somewhat better offensively then Carbo: guys like Muller, Linden, Ridley.... I dunno, Corson, Kisio, Steen, Gustafsson, Khristich, Brent Sutter, Damphousse, Troy Murray...
If you were to just give these guys ratings out of 10 offensively and defensively, and add them up, you might come to the conclusion that they were much better than Carbo. But he was the kind of guy who breaks that kind of rating system. A 10 defensively wouldn't do him justice. There's no way to account for the fact the he was special. He was uniquely impactful defensively.
And to me, that's Bergeron too. I don't think you can just say "kopitar's offensive edge is bigger than Bergeron's defensive edge" so casually. It downplays Bergeron's defensive edge. Kopitar was not "special " offensively, he was a top 20 kind of guy.
i agree with the main methodological point here. it’s why i always say you can’t just add up a guy who is an 7 offensively and 7 defensively (say, antonio davis) and pretend that’s better than dennis rodman’s 0 offense and 10 defence.
that said, i feel like kopitar was stifled offensively through much of his career. i think he really was a sundin-level offensive guy, but he played for darryl sutter. consider that in his entire eighteen year career there are only three seasons he didn’t lead the kings in scoring: his rookie year, this last year, and one year in the middle (his 11th year in the league). and in his 12th year, sutter leaves and kopitar bounces back to score his career high 92 pts, which happens to be his only top ten.
it’s not as special as bergeron was defensively, it’s not even as special as he himself was defensively, but he was a franchise level offensive center who also was selke calibre defensively. he led the playoffs in scoring twice. i have a lot of time for specialists, and bergeron was very good offensively for a primarily defensive guy, but i think the comparison is really more in the neighbourhood of fedorov vs keon than carbonneau vs [insert B+ two-way center]. which is to say, if we’re judging by the HOH centers list, too close to call.
and as for bergeron’s offensive ability, as i said, very good offensively for his role. and yes, he must have been stifled by julien in his prime. but i think to most of our eyes, he just didn’t look nearly as *talented* on the offensive end as kopitar did. and so i think offensive ceiling was a lot lower.
here’s some food for thought:
kopitar 2007 to 2011 (his pre-sutter years): 393 games, 358 pts, 75 pts/game
bergeron 2004 to 2011 (his pre-selke years, four years with julien): 456 games, 337 pts, 61 pts/game
kopitar 2012 to 2017 (his objective peak, all sutter years): 447 games, 378 pts, 69 pts/game
bergeron 2012 to 2017 (objective peak, all julien years): 443 games, 334 pts, 62 pts/game
kopitar 2018 to 2023 (post-sutter years): 452 games, 405 pts, 74 pts/game
bergeron 2018 to 2023 (post-julien years): 395 games, 369 pts, 77 pts/game
| years | games | pts | pts/game | notes |
kopitar | 2007–11 | 393 | 358 | 75 | pre-sutter |
bergeron | 2004–11 | 456 | 337 | 61 | four julien years, pre-selke |
kopitar | 2012–17 | 447 | 378 | 69 | sutter years, objective peak |
bergeron | 2012–17 | 443 | 334 | 62 | julien years, objective peak |
kopitar | 2018–23 | 452 | 405 | 74 | post-sutter |
bergeron | 2018–23 | 395 | 369 | 77 | post-julien |
so there are several ways to parse the post-sutter/julien stretches of these guys’ careers, where bergeron catches up and passes kopitar in pts/game average. maybe julien was stifling bergeron more than kopitar, especially considering that bergeron is two years older and should be slowing down rather than peaking offensively. but maybe what we’re really looking at is the aging/hollowing out of LA’s core post-sutter. before kempe emerges in 2022, kopitar spent five full seasons with washed up dustin brown and alex iafallo as his regular wingers. he led the kings in scoring in every single one of those seasons of course.
whereas bergeron is outscored by both of his all-star wingers, usually by massive margins, in all but one post-julien season (when he tied pastrnak, who missed six more games than he did, and was 21 pts behind marchand). so i think a very reasonable argument could be made that their linemate situations were very very different and played a big role here.