Prospect Info: Who is the Blues’ #13 Prospect?

[Brian39]

Where as with Ralph, I think he was also overdrafted but is a very intriguing prospect. He's in a weird spot because of the risk involved that is entirely on the FO. Ralph, as the same player, would be seen as a probable steal in the late 3rd. But drafting him with the earlier 2nd put some undue criticism on him. I think taking him over better prospects put him in a bad spot, the same way if we had traded up to 12 and taken Jiricek would have for him.

I think the FO made people have higher expectations on Ralph by taking him a tier above where he probably should have gone, which is why I brought up Buium (a clear first tier D) vs. Jiricek (a true 2nd tier D with Solberg, etc.) I think Ralph around mid-late 3rd would be a steal, but taking him over someone like Pulkkinen puts pressure on him to be an impact guy on a timeline where as someone like Kos can develop in his own time.

I don't think you are wrong about the way people's opinions of players is skewed by what they cost their favorite team (cap hit, draft capital, trade return, etc).

However, this is probably a situation where we can step back and remember that the vast majority of Blues fans don't have any understanding or awareness of the differences between a couple draft tiers outside of the 1st round. I think this board is the most knowledgeable online community regarding Blues prospects and we're having this discussion in the thread about who is our 13th best prospect.

I don't really think that Ralph is under any actual undue pressure due to his draft spot. Again, I think you are right that selecting him where we did influences our opinions, but in the grand scheme of things we are a tiny sliver of the fanbase and our opinions genuinely don't move the needle for the players/executives in the Blues organization. This isn't a Brewer situation where fan frustration will be noticeably directed at the player.

 

[Majorityof1]

Not at all. When your alumni are Sidney Crosby, Jonathon Toews, Clayton Keller and recently Macklin Celebrini, Cole Eiserman, and Scott Morrow….i think it is a little bit better than your normal high school team. If you are their #1 d man, then you are probably a very talented player. Shattuck goes back to the 80s when Herb Brooks ran hockey schools out of there. Probably one of the best springboards for US hockey in the country. I’m sure their alumni hockey team would stack up to most junior teams though their level of play is less.

This is similarly comparing to CBC or DeSmet recruiting the best in St. Louis area as Shattuck gets the best in the US and beyond.

Crosby played there as a 15 year old then moved on to Q where he was drafted. Toews at 15 + 16 then was drafted out of college Celibrini at 14+15 and went to USHL then drafted out of college. Keller at 14-15 then was drafted out of USHL. Ralph played there as an 18 year old and was drafted out of there. One of these is not like the others.

Playing against even a great HS program at 18 is different than 14-16 and then moving on to a tougher program to get drafted. Its a hell of a lot different than playing against men at 17.

 

[Brian39]

This is the point where I don't know enough about the rest of these players to feel comfortable voting. So I will leave it up to you guys.

I have hit that point as well.

I will say though, usually when I hit this point my opinion on the remaining guys (formed by very minimal actual knowledge) is that everyone left is an extreme long-shot with bottom-of-the-lineup ceilings. It feels like there is more upside AND more guys with plausible NHL paths in the remaining group than usual.

I was very excited by our prospect pool when we did these rankings last year and I think that the pool has improved even though we graduated two guys who I had in the top 5 last summer (Hofer and Neighbours). Not bad since we drafted 16th overall and "only" added a late 2nd, late 3rd, and a 7th via trade.

Say what you will about the organizational strategy/philosophy at the NHL level. 2023/24 was a damn strong developmental year for the team.

Edit: specific shoutout to Kessel who finished 16th in these polls last year. 6 months later he had established himself as an everyday player on our blueline and by the end of the season he had convinced basically everyone here that he has actualized as legit NHL guy with potential for a bit more.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Jiricek hardly played at all and when he did it was similar to Dvorskys pro debut. He wasn’t good at all. So other than his Hlinka tourney, you also have very little to go on as he was out all year and this preseason. Don’t get me wrong. He has loads of potential and blood lines, but his prospect footprint is also very small based mainly on potential. Is Ralph Jiricek? No but he also had a lot of scouts that were impressed with the tool kit he brings putting him in the B group of prospects

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Crosby played there as a 15 year old then moved on to Q where he was drafted. Toews at 15 + 16 then was drafted out of college Celibrini at 14+15 and went to USHL then drafted out of college. Keller at 14-15 then was drafted out of USHL. Ralph played there as an 18 year old and was drafted out of there. One of these is not like the others.

Playing against even a great HS program at 18 is different than 14-16 and then moving on to a tougher program to get drafted. It’s a hell of a lot different than playing against men at 17.

What about Morrow?

 

[Majorityof1]

What about Morrow?

I left him out because I was tired of checking ages. But looking now yes, he did get drafted out of Shattuck. And while he looks like a good prospect, he is just 1 good prospect.

That also doesn't address the point that a 18 year old's HS stats, even in a elite HS, is not comparable to a 17 year old in a men's pro league. Ralph may end up great. He also has skills, but the competition he's played against is a ton less than other prospects

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I left him out because I was tired of checking ages. But looking now yes, he did get drafted out of Shattuck. And while he looks like a good prospect, he is just 1 good prospect.

That also doesn't address the point that a 18 year old's HS stats, even in an elite HS, is not comparable to a 17 year old in a men's pro league. Ralph may end up great. He also has skills, but the competition he's played against is a ton less than other prospects

It’s all a crapshoot. We shall see….

 

[sfvega]

I don't think you are wrong about the way people's opinions of players is skewed by what they cost their favorite team (cap hit, draft capital, trade return, etc).

However, this is probably a situation where we can step back and remember that the vast majority of Blues fans don't have any understanding or awareness of the differences between a couple draft tiers outside of the 1st round. I think this board is the most knowledgeable online community regarding Blues prospects and we're having this discussion in the thread about who is our 13th best prospect.

I don't really think that Ralph is under any actual undue pressure due to his draft spot. Again, I think you are right that selecting him where we did influences our opinions, but in the grand scheme of things we are a tiny sliver of the fanbase and our opinions genuinely don't move the needle for the players/executives in the Blues organization. This isn't a Brewer situation where fan frustration will be noticeably directed at the player.

Point being is that being a mid-2nd in a relatively deep draft (last year's draft was deep in the 1st, this year's had [I believe] more value in the early-to-mid 2nd) has inherently higher expectations than a mid-late 3rd whether we're talking about fans or media or organizationally. Someone like Peru is expected to make an impact, whereas someone like Leo Loof is seen as kind of a lottery ticket. Could become useful, but the expectations are more tempered, more realistic.

 

[ezcreepin]

Point being is that being a mid-2nd in a relatively deep draft (last year's draft was deep in the 1st, this year's had [I believe] more value in the early-to-mid 2nd) has inherently higher expectations than a mid-late 3rd whether we're talking about fans or media or organizationally. Someone like Peru is expected to make an impact, whereas someone like Leo Loof is seen as kind of a lottery ticket. Could become useful, but the expectations are more tempered, more realistic.

Perunovich had those expectations because he won the Hobey Baker, so he was clearly a good player. Vannelli never panned out but I rarely remember anyone talking about him like he needed to make it to the NHL.

 

[sfvega]

Perunovich had those expectations because he won the Hobey Baker, so he was clearly a good player. Vannelli never panned out but I rarely remember anyone talking about him like he needed to make it to the NHL.

People were absolutely excited about Perunovich before the Baker award.

 

[Majorityof1]

People were absolutely excited about Perunovich before the Baker award.

Let's check the tape (Out of curiosity). I pulled the 2019 prospect polls, the year BEFORE he won the Hobey Baker, the glori(a)ous 2019 offseason . Perunovich was given the #7 prospect ranking because he and Mikkola were the only ones to receive significant votes in the #6 poll, but Perunovich recieved less. The top 15 were....

2019 Blues Board top 15 prospects
1) Jordan Kyrou - 91.9%
2) Dominik Bokk - 84.2%
3) Klim Kostin - 43.4%
4) Ville Husso - 41.3%
5) Mitch Reinke - 36.5%
6) Niko Mikkola - 46.1%*
7) Scott Perunovich - 42.1%*
8) Nikita Alexandrov - 48.7%
9) Alexei Toropchenko - 45%
10) Evan Fitzpatrick - 21.6%
11) Erik Foley - 53.7% (tiebreaker)
12) Colten Ellis - 35.9%
13) Mathias Laferriere - 44.4%
14) Tyler Tucker - 32.5%
15) Austin Poganski - 29.8%

That isn't a good prospect pool. I'd argue that we weren't too high on him when Mitch Reinke, who wasn't drafted, was ranked higher. I skimmed the posts and did not see much in depth analysis of his pro potential to say either way. There were some who really liked him. I saw a Krug compariso and laughed out loud. But I wouldn't say there was a ton of expectations based on his draft position. More people cited his success in college than draft position.

After he won the Hobey Baker, he was #2 in the 2020 poll. He won the #1 poll but Kyrou wasn't on the llist. They ran a run-off with Kyrou, and he lost. But people still voted for Perunovich over Kyrou (4 out of 24 votes). The Hobey absolutely boosted his expectations to the moon.

 

[Shwabeal]

I know the team was in a competitive window but, SHEESH, that prospect pool….

Mitch Reinke at 5 I remember people being excited about that signing because it was Big Walt’s first “guy” as amateur scout.

I remember his first game and thinking he actually didn’t look out of place. Did not realize that was literally his ONLY game in the league until I just looked it up.

 

[kimzey59]

I know the team was in a competitive window but, SHEESH, that prospect pool….

Mitch Reinke at 5 I remember people being excited about that signing because it was Big Walt’s first “guy” as amateur scout.

I remember his first game and thinking he actually didn’t look out of place. Did not realize that was literally his ONLY game in the league until I just looked it up.

In fairness; 8 of the 15 are NHL'ers(jury still out on Ellis).
The talent level may be lacking, but that's a pretty solid success rate.

 

[Majorityof1]

In fairness; 8 of the 15 are NHL'ers(jury still out on Ellis).
The talent level may be lacking, but that's a pretty solid success rate.

4 of those 8 are borderline NHLers at this point. Tucker and Alexandrov combined for less than 50 NHL games injury-free last year and got low ice time when they did play. Kostin was healthy scratched or getting 8 minutes a night until traded to Sharks last year. Perunovich played the most of the 4 but was scratched 25+ times.

We'll see if Peru sticks in our lineup with Suter and POJ, and to a lesser extent Johannesson. Unfortunately, I think he will for PP with Krug out.

Tucker and Alexandrov may not be in the NHL to start the season. They absolutely will not be in the opening night lineup. Are they NHLers?

 

[Brian39]

4 of those 8 are borderline NHLers at this point. Tucker and Alexandrov combined for less than 50 NHL games injury-free last year and got low ice time when they did play. Kostin was healthy scratched or getting 8 minutes a night until traded to Sharks last year. Perunovich played the most of the 4 but was scratched 25+ times.

We'll see if Peru sticks in our lineup with Suter and POJ, and to a lesser extent Johannesson. Unfortunately, I think he will for PP with Krug out.

Tucker and Alexandrov may not be in the NHL to start the season. They absolutely will not be in the opening night lineup. Are they NHLers?

Which is a good success rate for a prospect pool that only has a single guy picked in the top 30 (Bokk at pick #25). Only 37% of 1st rounders play 100+ NHL games. 17% of 2nd rounders play 100+ NHL games. 14% of 3rd rounders, 11% of 4th rounders and under 10% after that. The data used for these stats was in a 30 team NHL, so each round was broken into multiples of 30 (1-30, 31-60, 61-90, etc).

Here is that prospect list by draft selection instead of names:

1: 35th overall
2: 25th overall
3: 31st overall
4: 94th overall (goalie)
5: Undrafted signing
6: 127th overall
7: 45th overall
8: 62nd overall
9: 113th overall
10: 59th overall (goalie)
11: Acquired via trade (78th overall by the Jets originally)
12: 93rd overall
13: 169th overall
14: 200th overall
15: 110th overall

Kyrou is a home run at 35th. He's already at 334 NHL games with three 25+ goal seasons. He's under contract for 7 more years and is a no-doubt top 6 player. Career-altering Injury is the only thing that will keep him from playing 750+ NHL games, 200+ goals, and 500+ points.

Mikkola is at 252 games and just won a Cup as a #4 D. He's 28, under contract for 2 more years and will very likely hit the 500+ game mark with multiple seasons as a top 4 (or fringe top 4) guy.

Husso is at 132 games and made it to 1A territory. Injuries and inconsistency appear to have derailed his career, but he's still in his 20s and will almost certainly get 1-2 more shots with NHL teams.

Torpo is at 179 games and has established himself as a legit bottom sixer with some offensive pop by age 24. These types of guys can hit walls quickly, but he has a really good chance to carve out a nice 400+ NHL game career as a contributing every day player for multiple years.

Kostin at 155 games and may or may not stick around as a bottom sixer much longer. Not as big a success story as the 4 above, but still beating the odds for a 31st overall. He is currently 3rd in NHL games played among 31st overall selections since 2010.

Perunovich at 45th is 27 games away from that 100 game threshold and I'll be extremely surprised if he doesn't get there. It will likely be this season with the Blues, but if not another NHL team will give him a chance as a #7 D and slot him into enough games that he gets there.

Jury is out on Alexandrov/Tucker and I feel fairly confident that the others will fall short.

Put together, that is a really good success rate for where all these guys were picked. Turning 4 of those prospects into a top of the lineup forward, a middle pair D man, a legit NHL goalie, a quality bottom 6 guy, and multiple other fringe NHL players is beating the odds. There are more 'washouts' not on this ranking, so it isn't like we had a 35% or better success rate at turning mid-late picks into 100+ game players. But my point is that given where all these guys were picked, getting a handful of actual contributors (one being a damn good player) and a few fringe guys is good.

And it certainly doesn't hurt that we traded the only true 'bust' into a quality NHL player just a year after drafting him.

 

[ezcreepin]

Which is a good success rate for a prospect pool that only has a single guy picked in the top 30 (Bokk at pick #25). Only 37% of 1st rounders play 100+ NHL games. 17% of 2nd rounders play 100+ NHL games. 14% of 3rd rounders, 11% of 4th rounders and under 10% after that. The data used for these stats was in a 30 team NHL, so each round was broken into multiples of 30 (1-30, 31-60, 61-90, etc).

Here is that prospect list by draft selection instead of names:

1: 35th overall
2: 25th overall
3: 31st overall
4: 94th overall (goalie)
5: Undrafted signing
6: 127th overall
7: 45th overall
8: 62nd overall
9: 113th overall
10: 59th overall (goalie)
11: Acquired via trade (78th overall by the Jets originally)
12: 93rd overall
13: 169th overall
14: 200th overall
15: 110th overall

Kyrou is a home run at 35th. He's already at 334 NHL games with three 25+ goal seasons. He's under contract for 7 more years and is a no-doubt top 6 player. Career-altering Injury is the only thing that will keep him from playing 750+ NHL games, 200+ goals, and 500+ points.

Mikkola is at 252 games and just won a Cup as a #4 D. He's 28, under contract for 2 more years and will very likely hit the 500+ game mark with multiple seasons as a top 4 (or fringe top 4) guy.

Husso is at 132 games and made it to 1A territory. Injuries and inconsistency appear to have derailed his career, but he's still in his 20s and will almost certainly get 1-2 more shots with NHL teams.

Torpo is at 179 games and has established himself as a legit bottom sixer with some offensive pop by age 24. These types of guys can hit walls quickly, but he has a really good chance to carve out a nice 400+ NHL game career as a contributing every day player for multiple years.

Kostin at 155 games and may or may not stick around as a bottom sixer much longer. Not as big a success story as the 4 above, but still beating the odds for a 31st overall. He is currently 3rd in NHL games played among 31st overall selections since 2010.

Perunovich at 45th is 27 games away from that 100 game threshold and I'll be extremely surprised if he doesn't get there. It will likely be this season with the Blues, but if not another NHL team will give him a chance as a #7 D and slot him into enough games that he gets there.

Jury is out on Alexandrov/Tucker and I feel fairly confident that the others will fall short.

Put together, that is a really good success rate for where all these guys were picked. Turning 4 of those prospects into a top of the lineup forward, a middle pair D man, a legit NHL goalie, a quality bottom 6 guy, and multiple other fringe NHL players is beating the odds. There are more 'washouts' not on this ranking, so it isn't like we had a 35% or better success rate at turning mid-late picks into 100+ game players. But my point is that given where all these guys were picked, getting a handful of actual contributors (one being a damn good player) and a few fringe guys is good.

And it certainly doesn't hurt that we traded the only true 'bust' into a quality NHL player just a year after drafting him.

Whether or not those guys are impact players, it does say something about the scouting that we've been able to get games out of late round picks. Obviously you'd like to see them have more impact on the team (specifically the 2nd rounders), but overall they've done pretty decent. I think this has quite a bit to do with the drafting philosophy we have and doing their best to find "Bluesy" players. Ironically, it seems like the guys with more boom/bust potential have played more games than the Bluesy picks, though I think this will drastically change in the next couple of years. Also pretty insane just how bad our prospect pool was not even 10 years ago.