Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
I don't trust teams that rely on goaltending. Your goaltending is going to have a bad series out of four.
They're outside the top 10 in xGF% and they don't have all-world talent at forward.
Which teams do you consider to be a strong Stanley Cup Contender for 2025?
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They're outside the top 10 in xGF% and they don't have all-world talent at forward.
- Aug 12, 2008
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Can understand your first comment looking at track record, how they did last year or just the rosters. Would definitely drop the Rangers. For Colorado, you have to wonder if either of the woods are good enough to win. The oilers imo, are fully dependent on 1 or 2 superstars having near historical runs to get back to the finals. While Vegas won with mediocre goaltending last time, not sure their team is as good as they were then. So that really just leaves Florida.
Deno
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- Nov 9, 2022
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Again proof that you have not watched the Jets recently.
Helle may be the best goalie in the world but the reason he is in the Hart conversation is because of the team that is playing in front of him. Helle would be the first person to tell you that.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
People say the same thing every year and every year it ends up the same.
Since they're recording xGF%, there are zero instances of a team winning the Stanley Cup without either a Hall of Fame caliber forward or a top 10 xGF%.
They said I was crazy when I had the 65-12-5 Bruins losing in the first round but all I'm doing is following patterns that have held for two decades.
BB79
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- Apr 30, 2011
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As of January 2025, this graph is laughable to look back upon. The Sabres and Islanders with better playoff odds than the Bruins
Tier 1: Edmonton, Dallas, Winnipeg
Tier 2: Florida, Ottawa, Minnesota
Tier 3: Washington, New Jersey
Tier 2: Florida, Ottawa, Minnesota
Tier 3: Washington, New Jersey
The Tourist
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- Jul 11, 2008
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Deno
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Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Deno
Registered User
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Sasha Orlov
Lord of the Manor
- Jun 22, 2018
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The Jets just have the best offensive forward line in hockey, two defensemen in the top 20 scoring, a real chance at a record setting power play and 2nd in the league in goals for.
Other than that you nailed it LMAO.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
That doesn't refute anything I said.
The Cup has been monopolized by forwards who are shoo-in Hall of Famers.
Maybe the Jets will win. I can't predict the future. They are beginning to creep up the list of terms of underlying numbers.
All I'm saying is, it would be extremely atypical for a roster constructed like theirs to win the Cup.
Utah, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are in the top ten for xGF%. Do they have a better chance to win the cup than the Jets?
Romang67
BitterSwede
Their 5-game rolling average xGF% has been above 50%, and mostly closer to 60%, for about half the season now. If xGF% is a causal predictor of playoff success, that's probably the trend you want.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Of course not.
Not all of the teams top 10 in that particular stat are winners, but almost all of the winners are top 10 in that stat. It's a qualifier.
And generally, the teams who have won without meeting that qualifier have gamebreaking talent up front.
To find the last Cup winner outside of the top 10 in xGF% you have to go all the way back to 2018, and the Washington Capitals. As I recall, they had a forward on that team who was pretty good.
The Jets just got up to 9th place, which is around where Vegas was in 2023, and Scheifele/Connor probably aren't too far off from Eichel/Stone. It's certainly possible if they keep up their recent level of play.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Don't disagree there. The Jets have been red hot. People are bumping this from about 7 weeks back, to be fair.
Chuck Testa
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- Mar 27, 2017
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- Winnipeg Jets - solid team on both sides of the puck w/ a Vezina calibre goaltender. Cup contenders.
- Florida Panthers - defending champs. Cup contenders.
- Minnesota Wild - can't see it happening.
- New Jersey Devils - can't see it happening.
- Los Angeles Kings - can't see it happening.
- Carolina Hurricanes - good forwards, good defense, good goaltending. Cup contenders if they catch fire at the right time.
- Washington Capitals - surprising team this season. Could they go on a run? Maybe
- Vegas Golden Knights - always in contention since their first season.
- Toronto Maple Leafs - they look good at times and then look like the Leafs of old at times. We'll see.
- NY Rangers - can't see it happening.
- Vancouver Canucks - can't see it happening.
- Dallas Stars - always end up doing better than I expect them too. Oettinger capable of stealing games.
- Edmonton Oilers - two top 5 players in the league. Anything can happen.
- Colorado Avalanche - see Oilers, but with better goaltending imo.
No, it quite clearly proves you wrong.
If that's the case you are probably putting Scheifele with the most points not to make the HOF.
You don't think Hellebuyck makes the HOF?
Morrissey is a top 5 defenders in the league.
What is so "atypical" about them Vs say Florida, Vegas or the Blues?
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
It proves me wrong?
I think the Cup is in June.
I think he's a long shot to have more points than Nicholls or Roenick. And either way, I'm not talking about guys that squeak in. Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kucherov, MacKinnon, Eichel, and Barkov are just some guys who won the Cup somewhat recently. Before that, Kane, Toews, Kopitar, Bergeron; Crosby and Malkin again. These guys are first ballot Hall of Famers.
I said "forwards" like eight times.
I'll give you the Blues. That's probably the closest comp that won a Cup.
As far as Florida and Vegas, just look at the lineups side by side from the years those teams won the Cup.
You can't tell me you don't see the difference.
I have nothing against the Jets at all. This is just a discussion on a forum. All I'm saying is, it's exceptional to win the Cup without historically good forwards on the roster, and the proof is right there.
You seem lost. To go back to the start, you said:
I don't trust teams that rely on goaltending. Your goaltending is going to have a bad series out of four.
You have no clue.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Yes. Their best player is Connor Hellebuyck, by far.
The only team since the lockout whose best player was a goaltender to win the Cup was the Bruins in 2011 and even then, Chara and Bergeron have to be in the discussion.
You seem to be taking it personally that I'm pointing out that the Jets would be bucking a lot of trends.
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