Value of: Which teams are willing to give $13M, 7 years to Mitch Marner this summer?

[Rec T]

How about a team paying Marner 1x14 with a gentlemen agreement for a 8x13M extension to be signed in January 2026? Marner would be guaranteed 118M$ over 9 years for an avg of 13,11M/yr.

It’s pretty doubtful that a team would sign a 35 yr old Marner to 14M$ contract so his career earnings would probably be higher this way.

But Marner is risking having a career ending injury during the 6 months before his extension is signed which will have him lose out on some seeerious dollars.

Would he take that risk for those additional millions?

I wouldn't.

For an additional 1 million this season he's putting at risk 104 million (13x8). Or instead of 91 million guaranteed (13x7) he's risking it all for just an additional 14 million (1 this year @ 14, 13 the 8th). Maybe, maybe if he has blown through everything he's earned so far & is desperate for money in any possible way, but fiscally/risk vs reward it would be a dumb deal to take.

And unless the team has a post dated contract for Jan 2026, is there some guarantee that he won't suddenly say "You know, it's been fun here this year but I'm going to go test the market again...someone will probably (with the cap rising) give me a 15x7...". Then what, you give him the 120 million contract (15x8) instead of the 91 you could have had him sign for a year+ ago? Most owners are quite wealthy, but even the richest would probably give a GM that cost him an additional 29 million the stink eye & boot him out the door.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

As a UFA, Detroit and Columbus seem most likely to me.

 

[Legion34]

With another team maybe.

He sure as shit won't be taking a discount in Toronto with Tavares, Matthews and Nylander making what they are and neither should anyone else there. The culture in Toronto was set when Pajama boy was brought in. Kadri took a discount and got yeeted like a sucker.

Tavares literally took 14 million dollars
Less than SJ confirmed offer and refused the 8th year from the island. He’s not making 11 next year.

Tavares took less money to come. This is undisputed

 

[General Fanager]

1. I think he is worth it
2. I hope my team doesn't offer it to him.

 

[Vitto79]

Ranger thing to do if Kreider money goes

 

[periferal]

But it’s a nonsensical comparison either way. They’re such wildly different players, who have had wildly different careers and expectations. And this isn’t even to say oh one is great and the other is trash, they just don’t really make for a meaningful comparison.

Jeff Skinner? Marner has been playing at a 101 point pace since 18-19. Skinner has one ppg season in his career. Marner has to do better in the playoffs but they're two completely different caliber players.

Again...Not the point. I'm not comparing Marner/Skinner other than to say they are more flash, and thus overpaid, when compared to how much they actually help you win a Cup.

I still believe the Leafs missed a massive opportuntiy by not trading Marner before his current contract. They could've gotten a lot which could've fixed their defense, goaltending, and character issues...And still had players like Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander leading the offense.

 

[pld459666]

How bout now ?

Nope

 

[Coffee]

Nope

What’s it going to take to sell you Marner ?

 

[pld459666]

What’s it going to take to sell you Marner ?

Not interested in the player

 

[Habs Halifax]

Very curious to see how Marner performs at the 4 nations cup. Does he rise to the occasion or fall in the shadows.

 

[Gliff]

Ducks will give him 110 with 55 deferred to get his cap down to like 8 mil

 

[koteka]

I’d love to have him on my team. He can tell the kids about deep playoff runs and what it feels like to have your name on the Cup. What a veteran leader he would be. Oh, sorry. I was thinking about Rantanen.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Tavares literally took 14 million dollars
Less than SJ confirmed offer and refused the 8th year from the island. He’s not making 11 next year.

Tavares took less money to come. This is undisputed

And how's that worked out? lol

 

[bossram]

$13M AAV for Marner, in the cap inflating environment, is absolutely worth it for most teams.

Some people here clearly do not realize and have not adjusted to what AAVs will look like in this cap era. We're going to start seeing some "crazy" numbers (except by cap hit % they're exactly in line with elite players of the flat cap era)

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

If Marner hits July 1st, he will get more than $13Mx7, I would think.

 

[ShakenNotStirred]

I don't follow Toronto hockey so forgive my ignorance, but what has marner said he wants to do?

I hope the red wings pick him up

 

[Price is Wright]

I echo others in seeing him one day as a Red Wing. Could also see him in Chicago next to Bedard and Bertuzzi.

 

[Golden_Jet]

How much more production do the Leafs get out of Marner than Nylander? If Nylander is worth $11.5m/13.1%, then how much more will they pay Marner? Nylander had one lucky season and still had less production and the Leafs gave him a blank check.

Nylander had more production, don’t care about pace.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Gotta think Detroit would be in pretty heavy for guys like Marner/Rantanen if they make it to market

Not sure why you'd have to think that given that Yzerman has never chased a top dollar UFA and Detroit's cap would be far better spent on a T6 center or T4 defender.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

pv said Anaheim will be spending to the cap soon, if these guys make ufa expect Anaheim to talk to all of them

 

[SirloinUB]

Not sure why you'd have to think that given that Yzerman has never chased a top dollar UFA and Detroit's cap would be far better spent on a T6 center or T4 defender.

Because they're substantial needle movers. Yzerman hasn't really had the opportunity to pursue a player of this caliber on the open market so im not sure past actions (or lack there of) are predictive of much.

The only guy of this nature that has even been available was Gaudreau (RIP) and at that time Detroit was still focused on drafting/developing more so than competing.

 

[HaNotsri]

Buffalo is the perfect fit. We never make the playoffs.

 

[Pengu]

For me Marner is the typical Kessel player. He must be a complementary player on a team as he is garbage as the main man in the playoffs. And he will be paid way too much to be a complimentary player.
And sorry, I care about playoffs more than anything.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Because they're substantial needle movers. Yzerman hasn't really had the opportunity to pursue a player of this caliber on the open market so im not sure past actions (or lack there of) are predictive of much.

The only guy of this nature that has even been available was Gaudreau (RIP) and at that time Detroit was still focused on drafting/developing more so than competing.

They're also going to demand $12.5M+/year when Yzerman has already set an internal cap with Larkin so much that he hacked a year off Seider to keep him below it...

Nevermind that Marner doesn't scream "Yzerman player", that, again, Yzerman has never chased the big name UFA as a GM, and that Detroit already has a solid future with wingers, which they can't say about centers or LHD.

 

[Habs Halifax]

As a UFA, Detroit and Columbus seem most likely to me.

If Marner leaves the Leafs (that I am doubtful on but lets say he does)... He's going to pick a team that has a very good center for him to work with. That part I am sure of.