Value of: Which teams are willing to give $13M, 7 years to Mitch Marner this summer?

[Blackhawkswincup]

Although I'm not sure the 7th round Rem Pitlick draft pick, or dudes like Taige Harding, will have bearing on Mitch Marner's future, I'm glad you included them for posterity. Make sure you attach your bibliography when submitting an essay, friend!

I'm kidding, of course. Like most on here, I can see a world where Chicago is in on this. Getting out of the rebuild is incredibly hard, and it's very clear they don't have elite pieces after Bedard to do it meaningfully.

Can never predict how a GM feels about guys and who they decide to sign and let walk in NCAA. I wouldn't sign Harding most likely but who knows

Point is Hawks D depth right now in pipeline likely means several like Harding, Kelley and a few others may not have future with organization and could become someone else free lotto ticket

 

[PelagicJoe]

Detroit would have the cap space. Do it, Stevie.

 

[DavidBL]

First the Ducks need high end forward talent/scoring right now, zero doubt about that. Your point about the reduced pressure is certainly valid. In a vacuum, he'd be a great addition to the current team and would easily be one of the best players.

My point was that if they're paying him $13+million/7yr (& it probably would have to be that much to get him) it will absolutely screw up contract negotiations moving forward. If/when the young guys they have now start playing to their potential they'll be asking PV "Hey, I'm producing 60-70% of what Marner is, how come you're only offering me a contract at less than half of what you're paying him...after the cap went way up? Pay me or trade me"

Then too, probably at least half his contract (the productive half) will be spent before the team realistically has any playoff contention expectations. If this was a couple of years from now when he became available, yeah I'd be all for adding him to the team as he'd be a great addition for the window opening. Right now though just doesn't seem worth it for a few reasons.

The big if here is when the kids start producing. At this stage NONE of them have shown enough to even begin to compare to Marner. IMO. They are all headed to a bridge deal at this point.

 

[kp61c]

a great regular season in a contract year from a playoff bust. you just love to see it. some dumbass will bite for sure.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Detroit would have the cap space. Do it, Stevie.

If Detroit were gonna throw $13M+ at a UFA they'd be much farther ahead to wait a year and see what happens with Kaprizov.

That's stupid money to throw at a winger.

 

[604]

So the answer is a lot of teams…he may go north of $14m.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

a great regular season in a contract year from a playoff bust. you just love to see it. some dumbass will bite for sure.

It's not like it's that far off from his usual pace.

There are probably 15+ teams who will make the necessary space for him if he wants to sign there.

 

[qc14]

I'd think Utah, Seattle, Detroit, and Chicago would be the big players in UFA if he made it that far. Carolina maybe, Buffalo 10000% should but zero chance Pegula ponies up the cash necessary. Minnesota, Washington, or Nashville if they move some things around.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Chicago makes sense. Might be an overpay but getting Bedard a reliable playmaker for the next 7 years would be huge. And his game is mostly hockey iq so at age 28 he should be effective throughout his contract.

 

[Rec T]

The big if here is when the kids start producing. At this stage NONE of them have shown enough to even begin to compare to Marner. IMO. They are all headed to a bridge deal at this point.

Sure, and that's entirely fair, they should have to prove that they're worth the big upcoming contracts.
My biggest problem with Marner to Anaheim right now is that he's going to be playing about half his contract (if not more) with them before they're ready to seriously contend. If the 2024 Marner was available to pursue in 2026 I'd be all for it. But he'll be (most likely) on the downhill side of things when it comes time to really earn that salary (assuming a seven year contract).

The Ducks somehow convincing him to go there wouldn't be the worst thing to happen but it's not a 'we have to do anything/everything to get him here right now' situation either.

 

[DavidBL]

Sure, and that's entirely fair, they should have to prove that they're worth the big upcoming contracts.
My biggest problem with Marner to Anaheim right now is that he's going to be playing about half his contract (if not more) with them before they're ready to seriously contend. If the 2024 Marner was available to pursue in 2026 I'd be all for it. But he'll be (most likely) on the downhill side of things when it comes time to really earn that salary (assuming a seven year contract).

The Ducks somehow convincing him to go there wouldn't be the worst thing to happen but it's not a 'we have to do anything/everything to get him here right now' situation either.

Sure it's a concern but it's putting the cart before the horse imo. If you have to take the player a year early or not get the player you take the player a year early. You have to build up and Marner doesn't make us a cup contender but he gets us closer. Worry about his play in 5 years in 5 years. Tavares got a similar deal and the reality is that he's lived up to it. There would be far less gripe about that deal if the cap didn't freeze because of Covid.

To your last point, I tend to agree. I do not see him leaving Toronto honestly but if he is available I think you take that shot at him.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Still waiting for an example of Yzerman chasing the top UFA to justify claims that Detroit would be in on this.

He doesn't do it for centers and defensemen. He sure as hell ain't gonna do it for a winger.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Sabres.... His family can hang on Chippawa.

 

[Strummer53]

Full disclosure.... Didn't read a thing in this thread; however.
Buffalo, won't need to worry about playoff performance anyhow.

 

[AvatarAang]

Step 1: everyone claims Marner is worth 14m+

Step 2: toronto signs Marner for less than 14m

Step 3: everyone claims Marner is overpaid


We are currently on step 1. I can’t wait for step 2 and 3!

 

[Volica]

I think you not only have to look at Cap space, but willingness to go and use cap space as well.
He'll have a lot of suitors if he wants. Have to think even Treliving isn't dumb enough to let him walk.

 

[miscs75]

Count the Isles out if Lou is still around. He’s not at the end of his career yet/a former Devils player from the 1995 cup team.

 

[leeroggy]

He would be a bargain to an NBA or MLB team . . . Can he field or hit 3's?

 

[blankall]

Sure, and that's entirely fair, they should have to prove that they're worth the big upcoming contracts.
My biggest problem with Marner to Anaheim right now is that he's going to be playing about half his contract (if not more) with them before they're ready to seriously contend. If the 2024 Marner was available to pursue in 2026 I'd be all for it. But he'll be (most likely) on the downhill side of things when it comes time to really earn that salary (assuming a seven year contract).

The Ducks somehow convincing him to go there wouldn't be the worst thing to happen but it's not a 'we have to do anything/everything to get him here right now' situation either.

Four years? The ducks have Zegras, Terry, Gibson, and McTavish all in their prime years now. The team sucks, so these guys aren't producing as they should. However, I doubt management is willing to start the rebuild over and abandon all of these guys.

It's been six years without playoffs. Are the Ducks really going to gamble on the next four year rebuild just working out?

Despite what many on here believe, the long term tank strategy destroys more franchises than it rebuilds. You can tank for a few years but eventually you need to add.

Step 1: everyone claims Marner is worth 14m+

Step 2: toronto signs Marner for less than 14m

Step 3: everyone claims Marner is overpaid


We are currently on step 1. I can’t wait for step 2 and 3!

Is anyone stating that he's "worth" $14+ million. That's just that some other GM might overpay for him on the UFA market. He's also getting 7 instead of 8 years. That's actually huge, as it's the last 2-3 years on the Marner contract that will likely be painful. If you can cut that dead cap space down by one year, to 1-2 years, it's worth a fair bit up front.

 

[ToDavid]

If Detroit were gonna throw $13M+ at a UFA they'd be much farther ahead to wait a year and see what happens with Kaprizov.

That's stupid money to throw at a winger.

So they'd wait a year to throw that money at a different winger who performs the same playoff disappearing act as Marner?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

So they'd wait a year to throw that money at a different winger who performs the same playoff disappearing act as Marner?

Weird. You brought up Marner being a disappearing act, not me.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Step 1: everyone claims Marner is worth 14m+

Step 2: toronto signs Marner for less than 14m

Step 3: everyone claims Marner is overpaid


We are currently on step 1. I can’t wait for step 2 and 3!

Step 4: No one should be paying him 13 million, let alone 14 , he’s not worth it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I doubt Marner wants to leave Toronto. He's earned a lot up to this point so money might not be his sole decision maker this summer. Maybe he is happy to take $11M to stay in Toronto.

With a looming cap increase, some GM's are going to offer $13M. It will be the new $10M contract type thingy

 

[John Mandalorian]

Step 1: everyone claims Marner is worth 14m+

Step 2: toronto signs Marner for less than 14m

Step 3: everyone claims Marner is overpaid


We are currently on step 1. I can’t wait for step 2 and 3!

Interpreting this:

Step 1: There a lot of GMs making regrettable decisions.

Step 2: Toronto has one of them.

Step 3: Fans don’t think he’s worth it or it’s a bad idea.

Different things are happening.

 

[NVious]

If Detroit were gonna throw $13M+ at a UFA they'd be much farther ahead to wait a year and see what happens with Kaprizov.

That's stupid money to throw at a winger.

Yzerman doesn't have a year to wait. He does this in a heartbeat, it likely takes Detroit into playoff territory and that's enough for him.