Which team has a better shot at the cup next season: Colorado or Dallas?

[Ratbath]

Voted too close. I need to see what their off-seasons look like first. If the avs are eating the nichushkin contract and landy is still toast then I’d go stars pretty easily but also if the stars can’t add/retain some big pieces on defense they’re going to have issues too. I think they bridge Harley but I assume they let Tanev go sign in Seattle or wherever; His age doesn’t seem to fit the stars future plans. So they really need at least two Dmen or three if Nils doesn’t progress. If they can’t get Duchene to sign another cherry deal that’s another big piece they have to replace at low cost.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Gun to my head, I’d say Dallas, but frankly I don’t expect either in the WCF next year. Colorado has too many questions between Nichushkin, Landeskog, and Rantanen, whereas Dallas is going to have to depend on young kids like Stankoven and Borque a little too much for my liking when you look at who is going to be departing their roster.

 

[Ratbath]

The stars might even need four defenseman if Suter gets bought out. Forgot that might happen

 

[Dog]

Stars slight edge but depends on free agency.

 

[Clint Eastwood]

As an Avs fan I voted Dallas, the Nichushkin situation is a MASSIVE variable

Yeah, the post above you mentions how the Avs pillars are firing better than ever and I agree for the most part. The big thing for me is that Nichushkin is one of those pillars and replacing his combo of motor, intensity, and production is a lot easier said than done.

 

[JaegerDice]

They all still have elite pieces, yet without the depth they get bounced early each and every year. Vegas and St Louis both won recently without top 10 players on their rosters, but with incredible depth. Tampa lost their amazing third line, how do they look now? Colorado lost their scoring depth, got bounced by the Kraken and a deeper Dallas team. The Penguins HBK line was broken up and they never recovered and was a threat again. Chicago also lost a ton of their depth pieces and was never a contender again. Common for all those teams? They still had the same elite pieces but lost their depth. McDavid and Draisaitl are still doing McDavid and Draisaitl things, just like in the past few years. Difference? They have other players on the team also pulling weight. Now they're in the finals.

Depth comes into play when the top players on each team cancel each other out, which tends to happen deeper into the playoffs and particularly in the Stanley Cup Final. Either the best players go head to head, and neutralize each other's production, or they both produce a ton and it's up to the depth to put one team over the top.

If your elite players aren't at least good enough to match the other team's top players, you're going to get killed, regardless of how good your 3rd or 4th line are.

The Vegas Golden Knights did not win the cup because of their depth. Their top players DOUBLED the production of Florida's top players in the SCF.

Mark Stone, Marchsessault and Eichel each had 8 points. Bennett, Tkatchuk and Barkov had 4 or less points.

Likewise, Ryan O'Reilly outplayed Boston's best. Hence the Conn Smythe.

Your best players have to be your best players. Sometimes that means it's a wash with the other team's best and the depth makes up the difference. Sometimes it means outperforming the other team's best. But if your best can't do either, it's going to be a quick series regardless of how good your depth is.

 

[gritdash60]

Dallas ez

 

[Kcb12345]

Stars probably end up mostly the same team next year in the standings. I worry they aren't worried about the production loss of Pavelski and Duchene enough though. Can't rely on rookies to replace those numbers this year, especially not if you wanna contend.

I'd never count out MacKinnon and the Avs though. Based on the Byram trade, they're not afraid to make a splash and I think they'll acquire a big piece or 2 before next season.

I do wonder what happens with Nichushkin. I know a lot of people disagree but I could see them bringing him back. Unless he's a cap dump to a lesser team (maybe Chicago or someone like them is interested?), I have a hard time seeing him be effective for whatever team acquires him. If it's a bad team, he will probably go back to Russia or just give 0 effort since he has a reputation already for that. Good team, he might be motivated but we will see.

Also maybe Landeskog returns?

I think they'll be one of the most active teams this offseason, while the Stars probably won't do a whole lot.

 

[piqued]

It's too close to call. These are two rivals that will continue to scratch and claw at the margins. I don't care what else goes on with the Avs, MacKinnon gonna MacKinnon. I think Mittelstadt was a step in the right direction for their overall chances and balancing the roster.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Dallas likely has 6 or 7 players not coming back. I would resign Tanev, sign another dman like Tyler Myers and sign Jake Guentzel as they clearly could use another sniper and they need to replace Pavelski.

 

[Johnny Tomala]

Dallas Stars.

 

[Buck Naked]

Depth comes into play when the top players on each team cancel each other out, which tends to happen deeper into the playoffs and particularly in the Stanley Cup Final. Either the best players go head to head, and neutralize each other's production, or they both produce a ton and it's up to the depth to put one team over the top.

If your elite players aren't at least good enough to match the other team's top players, you're going to get killed, regardless of how good your 3rd or 4th line are.

The Vegas Golden Knights did not win the cup because of their depth. Their top players DOUBLED the production of Florida's top players in the SCF.

Mark Stone, Marchsessault and Eichel each had 8 points. Bennett, Tkatchuk and Barkov had 4 or less points.

Likewise, Ryan O'Reilly outplayed Boston's best. Hence the Conn Smythe.

Your best players have to be your best players. Sometimes that means it's a wash with the other team's best and the depth makes up the difference. Sometimes it means outperforming the other team's best. But if your best can't do either, it's going to be a quick series regardless of how good your depth is.

Of course you need your best players to perform. That goes without saying and arguing something else would be stupid. But as I mentioned with all the teams in my post. Pens, Avs, Bolts, Blackhawks... They all lost their depth but kept their top players and has not really been close since.