Which player would you take for a Game 7 winner take all?

[seafoam]

Why is Mitch Marner in this poll?

 

[the_fan]

Why is Mitch Marner in this poll?

He’s got more votes than Niedermayer, Brodeur, Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Draisaitl. So obviously he belongs

 

[PainForShane]

Fair enough but 8 game and 5 game samples just aren't my thing.

Take any small data point, scoring in game 7s, games on odd numbered days in April and one will find more variance from the normal bigger data set of in season scoring or overall playoff scoring and just because player A scored more in the past in the small data set sample doesn't mean that it's predictive in a vacuum comparing all these players in a hypothetical game 7 is it?

Every year players go on hot and cold streaks does that mean anything in the overall picture?

You sure? Pretty obvious to everyone you went out of your way to actively use an 8-game sample from Jagr to try to show "Jagr doesn't stand out like Foppa in terms of tilting the ice does he?" (your words, again, you never even came close to showing this). If 8 game samples aren't your thing what in the world possessed you to make a game by game breakdown of the 8 times Jagr played in game seven.

Also not sure what hot and cold streaks have to do anything. I think we all understand that game 7s do not take place on consecutive days (rarely in the same playoffs, even) and I think we would all agree that hot / cold streaks generally do not last multiple years.

Do you want to try again? Up to you I guess

 

[wetcoast]

You sure? Pretty obvious to everyone you went out of your way to actively use an 8-game sample from Jagr to try to show "Jagr doesn't stand out like Foppa in terms of tilting the ice does he?" (your words, again, you never even came close to showing this). If 8 game samples aren't your thing what in the world possessed you to make a game by game breakdown of the 8 times Jagr played in game seven.

No that's not how it went down I just broke down, without judgment Jagr's 8 game sample that the other guy brought up and frankly it didn't shed any light as everyone small game 7 sample is different and simply looking at counting stats doesn't tell us what to except just what happened in those specific cirmstances.

Even to look back at players game 7's we would need more information than we have available in a box score.

but just to humour you I'll break down foppas game 7s

0 points in a 4-0 loss in the 98 playoffs against Edmonton.

For the record Foppa was 6-6-5-11 going into game 7 and Sakic was 5-2-3-5 but both got shutout by Curtis Joseph.

The following season Foppa goes donut against Belfour and Dallas in a 4-1 loss (and is -2 on the night), Sakic scores a goal at 13:58 of the 3rd period but Foppa had the better series (at a glance).

We would have to go back and watch all the games.

Forsberg led the playoffs in scoring that year and ironically Jagr had that 2 assist (+3) against NJ in the first round that year but for both players going into their respective game 7s the logical thing to use would be "how did they do in the previous 6 games?"

Forsberg was 6-2-5-7 (+2) while Jagr had played in 2 games and had a line of 2-2-1-3 (+/- of zero)and they had won 1 game and lost one, obviously Foppa was a t 3-3 in the win/loss column as well.

Brodeur also shit the bed that post season while Belfour was playing at an elite level, the Stars would go on to win the SC so it's a real apples and oranges comparison right?

99-00 Foppa scores the avs 1st goal early in the 3rd period in a 3-2 loss to the stars with Beflour being a stud in net once again and Foppa ends up +1 in the game.

In the 01 playoffs Forsberg plays in his 4th game 7s in the playoffs and plays in only 11 of the Avs 22 post season games in a SC win.

In the second round game 7 Foppa has the primary assist in the then 2-1 game and the avs end up winning 5-1 and shorten the bench.

Felix Potvin is the LA goalie and up until that game he has a decent save% and finishes with a .918 save% for the series.

In the 02 playoffs he sits out the season with an injury and comes back to lead the NHL in scoring even though the Avs go down 4-3 in the conference finals to the eventual SC winners.

first round foppa in game 7 against LA he has the primary assist on the first and GWG in a 4-0 win and plays only 15:01 (maybe to save him for the enxt round, not sure of the details) but the Avs have a 3-0 led after the first period.

Second round in game 7 he has the only goal in a 1-0 win over the Sharks and is still playing limited MPG.

in the 3rd round he is still the best offensive player for colorado, despite still playing less MPG than normal and the Red Wings who go on to win the SC blow them out 7-0.

Foppa plays 17:12 that game and isn't on the ice for any goals against.

Now this isn't the complete record, we would have to watch all the games between Jagr and Foppa in game 7s but nothing here really changes my mind that I would take Foppa over Jagr for any game 7.

Also not sure what hot and cold streaks have to do anything. I think we all understand that game 7s do not take place on consecutive days (rarely in the same playoffs, even) and I think we would all agree that hot / cold streaks generally do not last multiple years.

Do you want to try again? Up to you I guess

Hot and cold streaks don't predict anything and neither does game 7 scoring as what actually happens takes place under very specific circumstances against different opponent and conditions.

Larger samples help even this out somewhat but opponents in the playoffs do matter right?

 

[PainForShane]

Now this isn't the complete record, we would have to watch all the games between Jagr and Foppa in game 7s but nothing here really changes my mind that I would take Foppa over Jagr for any game 7.

Hot and cold streaks don't predict anything and neither does game 7 scoring as what actually happens takes place under very specific circumstances against different opponent and conditions.

I agree with the first part, so does everyone else. Prior performance in past game 7s is one factor (there are others) in how likely it is for a person to perform well in their next game 7. This is common sense. Do you have any questions about this?

Note that you've been arguing against this point for the last few pages and even later in this same post (bolded).

To me, your ability to structure an argument seems extremely poor. If you are looking to convince anyone of the seemingly insane opinion that "when choosing a player for a future game 7, their previous history of game 7 scoring doesn't matter," you will need to do better.

 

[wetcoast]

I agree with the first part, so does everyone else. Prior performance in past game 7s is one factor (there are others) in how likely it is for a person to perform well in their next game 7. This is common sense. Do you have any questions about this?

Sure it's one factor but it's not the primary one IMO, for example in any series the previous 6 games against that opponent should hold more weight than some game 7 series that was against a different opponent in a different season sometimes years removed right?

Maybe people are viewing the question differently than I am, but I'll float this example, Player A is on a hot streak and a great producer but player B has a history of scoring 20% more on Saturday afternoon games, which player is more likely to score in the upcoming Saturday afternoon game?

I dunno maybe people are looking at what happened in the past as a predictor for the future but looking at small game samples in different contexts just isn't the decisive factor for me here.

I'll take the better player in a vacuum for this hypothetical game 7 where each hypothetical team is one other than the one any player played on and against some unknown opponent.

Note that you've been arguing against this point for the last few pages and even later in this same post (bolded).

It's not a zero sum game but only part of the equation and the other poster and now perhaps you are implying something that I didn't say.

To me, your ability to structure an argument seems extremely poor.

Sure I'll plea the 5th on that work has been crazy busy and I've been pushing the envelope with sleep ect so my arguments are more scattered than usual but the basic premise remains.

Jagr having a higher PPG in totally different circumstances, ie quality of opponents, team makeup and a general lesser overall impact 200 feet than Foppa doesn't change anything for me in this hypothetical.

The question needs us to gather as much information as possible, including past game 7s but also overall playoff performances and gameplay and put it into some sort of context.

It's not as simple as looking at the list and saying Justin Williams is the guy or that guys in higher scoring eras were somehow better.

By focusing too heavily on simply the scoring it fails to contextualize the data in any meaningful way.

If you are looking to convince anyone of the seemingly insane opinion that "when choosing a player for a future game 7, their previous history of game 7 scoring doesn't matter," you will need to do better.

I'm not looking to convince anyone ehre, just making an argument and if people want to put more weight on something that doesn't stand up to scrutiny then they are free to do so.

Also for future reference don't use the part in bold I never made any such claim and I'll just take this one as the heat of the battle comment and leave it at that.

 

[PainForShane]

You literally said the part in bold a couple posts up. Here it is again.

Hot and cold streaks don't predict anything and neither does game 7 scoring as what actually happens takes place under very specific circumstances against different opponent and conditions.

"Game 7 scoring doesn't predict anything" is from the quote provided a second time. Pretty sure everyone can understand this is equivalent to saying "their previous history of game 7 scoring doesn't matter" which now you are claiming you never said.

Gaslight much? Not a great look.

***

In the meantime, the main point of everyone you've been arguing with is that "Sure (game 7 performance) is one factor," the quotes are your words from last post but that's the main point of what everyone else has been saying. No one is or has ever claimed it's the only factor (at least not in this thread).

Anyway according to what you just said in last post, we've mostly been in agreement this whole time. Who would've thought

 

[strattonius]

You go with the most impactful position that can determine the outcome more than any other player in a 1 game sample size - that is Dominik Hasek.

 

[wetcoast]

You literally said the part in bold a couple posts up. Here it is again.



"Game 7 scoring doesn't predict anything" that's your exact quote provided again. Pretty sure everyone can understand this is equivalent to saying "their previous history of game 7 scoring doesn't matter" which now you are claiming you never said.

Gaslight much? Not a great look.

You seem pretty hung up on one specific quote and not the entire principle of the message here don't you think?

But let me rephrase that.

I believe that overall playoff performance, especially the 6 games in the current series is more important that previous game 7s in different series in different years against different opponents in determining who I would take for a hypothetical game 7 winner take all.

I also don't think that we can prove or disapprove anything here as the sample sizes are too small and subject to variance, all it takes is one big game to warp the results.

I think a better question to flesh this out would be which LA King do you take for a game 7 winner take all hypothetical?

Doughty, Kopitar, Williams

In the meantime, the main point of everyone you've been arguing with is that "Sure (game 7 performance) is one factor," so according to what you just said in last post, we've mostly been in agreement this whole time. Who would've thought? Glad we cleared that up

I agree sure it's a factor but my position should have been pretty clear when I posted that list but like I said my sleep work schedule has been erratic and perhaps I didn't present as good as I could have.

Either way at the end of the day the game 7 sample size is too small to draw too many conclusions from and I'll take the larger sample 8 days a week for any predictive purposes.

 

[Ratbath]

So many weird options when you also have all time elite options like prime Sid or hasek. Nothing against marner but you might as well ask me to choose between prime Gretzky or Roman Polak

 

[PainForShane]

You seem pretty hung up on one specific quote and not the entire principle of the message here don't you think?

But let me rephrase that.

I believe that overall playoff performance, especially the 6 games in the current series is more important that previous game 7s in different series in different years against different opponents in determining who I would take for a hypothetical game 7 winner take all.

I also don't think that we can prove or disapprove anything here as the sample sizes are too small and subject to variance, all it takes is one big game to warp the results.

--------

Either way at the end of the day the game 7 sample size is too small to draw too many conclusions from and I'll take the larger sample 8 days a week for any predictive purposes.

No, I don't agree. You said something dumb, I quoted it, then you pretended you never said it and accused me of making it up. Now you're pretended I quoted it out of context, that's not true either.

Making weak arguments is one thing, but it also appears you have no knowledge and / or understanding of the words / contradictory nonsense you yourself are posting. I'd encourage you to get more sleep, but I'm not sure that by itself will be enough.

Speaking of this contradictory nonsense, one post above you said "hot and cold streaks don't predict anything," and now you're saying "playoff performance especially the six games in the current series is more important" which one is it? "The game 7 sample size is too small to draw too many conclusions from" but apparently we should pay special attention to what the player's done in the 6 games in the current series -- because the set of 6 games is SUCH a larger sample is that right? (sarcasm) But of course you yourself claimed "hot and cold streaks don't predict anything" so wtf are you even talking about.

***

To anyone else reading this particular back and forth, I'm not sure there's much reason to, obvi you can if you want. I think most would agree (myself included) that poster's current statement "I believe that overall playoff performance, especially the 6 games in the current series is more important that previous game 7s in different series" is a reasonable opinion. Even if the poster's own arguments go against that idea. Who cares.

***

Who would I pick? As said before, prime Hasek. Some highlights:



Great announcer quote: "Well if it wasn't Dominik Hasek I probably wouldn't believe it but that's kind of routine around here"

 

[Thechozen1]

ROY

The guy with 3 Conn Smythe’s and 4 Stanley Cups for me.

 

[NordiquesForeva]

Weird mix of players in the poll, but it makes one think whether you take the BPA (so McDavid, Crosby, Hasek or Roy), the player that can most influence the outcome of one single game (Hasek or Roy), or the player who's perhaps not the BPA but has a track record of outperforming in game 7s or raises his game in the playoffs in general (Forsberg, or Williams, for example).

For me, it comes down to Hasek (likely the best goaltender available, and also a great game 7 track record) or McDavid, who I feel would significantly outperform in a large sample size of games 7s. It feels like a bit of a no-brainer to pick either of those two players for me. Someone like Sakic would also be a great write-in pick...not the BPA, but a superstar/near-elite player with a strong track record of clutch performances in big games (game 7 of the 2001 Cup finals, and 2002 Olympic gold medal game)

 

[NordiquesForeva]

That’s not really true though. For the first half of Forsberg’s Avs time he played harder minutes against the opponents best and heavy PK minutes, which is just as difficult as playing against players trying to shut you down. Then it switched and Sakic played the harder minutes and Forsberg had the defenses trying to stop him. I don’t think either ever had cushier minutes.

This is correct, deployment switched in the late 1990s with Forsberg getting the better offensive linemates and Sakic getting more d-zone and matchup time. The case study would be the 1999 and 2000 playoff series vs. Dallas, with Sakic typically matched up against the Modano line and Forsberg being relied on as Colorado's primary offensive producer (typically countered by the Dallas "grumpy old men" line with Carbonneau, McLean, Muller, etc., with the Hatcher/Matvichuk pairing). The plus/minus differences around that time are pretty striking.

 

[Boreal01]

May as well have the very best in a winner take all scenario, in which case the answer is Gretzky

 

[blundluntman]

It's between Roy and Hasek for me, but I went with Roy. Hasek's only played in 3 game 7s vs Roy's 12 so it's hard to really compare the two's resumes head to head. Roy on average was a better playoff performer and his game 7 record is pretty decent so I'd bet my money on him.

If I wanted to take a more boring route though, I'd vote Other and pick Gretzky.

 

[norrisnick]

It's between Roy and Hasek for me, but I went with Roy. Hasek's only played in 3 game 7s vs Roy's 12 so it's hard to really compare the two's resumes head to head. Roy on average was a better playoff performer and his game 7 record is pretty decent so I'd bet my money on him.

If I wanted to take a more boring route though, I'd vote Other and pick Gretzky.

What if you compare their head to head game 7s?

 

[blundluntman]

What if you compare their head to head game 7s?

That'd be impossible considering that entire series has been wiped clean from my memory

 

[norrisnick]

That'd be impossible considering that entire series has been wiped clean from my memory

Fair.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Almost went Roy - cause he's got the playoff history.

But one game.... and PRIME Hasek? I don't think there was any goalie as good as Hasek when he was on. He just didn't do it as long.

Whereas Roy was amazing for longer, Hasek had those few lightning in a bottle years where it's hard for me to pick against him.

honorable mention to Justin Williams. He's not in the same skill tier as these guys - but the guy just continually scored in game 7s. 7 goals in 9 games... 8 and 1 record

 

[Rorschach]

As a Kings fan who attended the Cup Final game in 2014, I would take Quick or Lundqvist over at least half these guys.

How are people taking Hasek over Roy in the playoffs? Roy is the best playoff goalie of all time. He singlehandedly dragged that 1993 Habs team to a cup.

Roy that series was EMOTIONAL DAMAGE before the meme was invented on the Kings. So many bad things happened to us due to that loss came down.

 

[Hanji]

Easy answer: Patrick Roy

Roy actually has a sub .500 record in game 7s, with his GAA and SV% nearly identical to his regular season average.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Roy actually has a sub .500 record in game 7s, with his GAA and SV% nearly identical to his regular season average.

Carey Price than

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Justin Williams AINEC

 

[HighNote]

Gretzky.

Williams is a close second.