Which of these overachieving teams sustain it?

[Jared Dunn]

I don't necessarily think Sabres finishing a bit above .500 is overachieving, it's probably still not enough to get them into the playoffs.

Don't think the Jets can sustain QUITE this pace although I do think they'll take the division and possibly conference, Flames I think will fall. Wild and Capitals I think were just generally underrated coming into the season

 

[Romang67]

The caps should also get much better goaltending.

The caps are a top 5 team in expected goals share.

Eh, maybe. It's not like Lindgren or Thompson have ever been top of the crop goalies, and Thompson has been one of the better goalies in the league so far in GSAx.

I'd say where they are lagging behind what can be expected is their PP, but they just lost Ovechkin for two months which hurts them there.

Evolving hockey has them top 5, NaturalStatTrick has them 8th, so it's not like they're a bad team. I just think they are worse than they have been so far.

 

[benfranklin]

The Sabres are in a playoff position, largely due to their division underperforming so far, but it will easily be the story of the season if the Sabres end their drought. Its slowly been an under the radar story.

 

[NHL1674]

How is f*** Minnesota doing so well? Hynes is legitimately one of the worst coaches I've ever seen when he was in NJ, and Preds fans don't look fondly upon his time there either.

The bigger question is how are they doing it with all the dead cap space killing the roster? Thank goodness that ends next year. As for this year, I could see them possibly being a wildcard team. Can't see them holding their current spot the whole way.

As for the Jets, they'll be fine. A strong offense with Hellebuyck in the back is all they really need to stay close to the top. Obviously, all bets are off though when the playoffs come around, but that applies to everybody.

 

[Mattilaus]

One of these teams is not like the others. One of these teams just isn't the same.

 

[qc14]

Caps and Jets are on PDO heaters but also have legitimately great underlying numbers and are getting contributions from all over the roster. Minnesota I don't think are going to fall out of a playoff spot but seem much more susceptible to a downturn as soon as Kaprizov falls slightly from "Hart frontrunner" good to even just "top 10 forward in the league" good.

Calgary I still think probably miss the playoffs but also I don't know why people expected them to be a bottom 5 team going into the year. Buffalo is only overachieving in the sense that of the (many) bad teams in the east they're currently doing the least amount of shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

 

[Lions67]

Maybe the Sabres, only because their record isn't all that impressive. The Jets and Wild are punching way above their weight class.

The Jets are certainly NOT “ punching way above their weight class”. Silly comment.
52 wins last year
Looking like at least 100-105 pts this year.
It’s fair to be critical of the Jets in the playoffs tue last few years, but a 5 game set ( and that’s all it really was) were they went into a slump is not enough to erase last year.
It’s time for the Jets though to at least get back to the WCF.

This team is definitely legit

 

[benfranklin]

The Jets are certainly NOT “ punching way above their weight class”. Silly comment.
52 wins last year
Looking like at least 100-105 pts this year.
It’s fair to be critical of the Jets in the playoffs tue last few years, but a 5 game set ( and that’s all it really was) were they went into a slump is not enough to erase last year.
It’s time for the Jets though to at least get back to the WCF.

This team is definitely legit

The obvious question for the Jets is which Hellybuck will show up in the playoffs. Last season the Avs torched him.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Jets - 22GP 18-4
Wild - 21GP 13-4-4
Flames - 22GP 12-7-3
Capitals - 21GP 14-6-1
Sabres - 21GP 11-9-1

Jets - 22GP 18-4
Wild - 21GP 13-4-4
Flames - 22GP 12-7-3
Capitals - 21GP 14-6-1
Sabres - 21GP 11-9-1

I think these teams are worth discussing without calling them overachieving.

Jets will make the post season. I doubt they will get past the first round.

Wild will make the playoffs.

Flames might be a wildcard team.

Capitals 3rd in Metro

Sabres will not make the playoffs.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Why did you not include Vegas as an overachiever?

probably because they have a track record of sustained playoff success in the last 7 years whereas the others haven't

Their on-ice sh% 5v5 is 13.4%. Most seasons, 1 or 2 teams finish with a 5v5 sh% higher than 10%, and it's really never over 11% over 82 games.

They are getting a lot of scoring chances, but if you drop that percentage to 10%, which is normally somewhere in the range of 1 to 3 in the league, they have 16 fewer goals scored 5v5.

It's similar with the Jets, who are scoring on every 4th shot on the PP so far this season. Except the Jets will sustain it long term, cause they're my favorite team.

I agree that some regression in 5 v 5 shooting percentage is due. At the same time, their PP has been unsustainably bad, so they are likely due for some improvement in that regard.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

The Jets are certainly NOT “ punching way above their weight class”. Silly comment.
52 wins last year
Looking like at least 100-105 pts this year

They're playing at like a 130+ point pace right now, aka overachieving if you expect them to end up closer to 100-105

 

[benfranklin]

I don't mind this topic. I suppose you chose these teams for different reasons though. Perhaps not overachieving, but more to do with

I think these teams are worth discussing without calling them overachieving.

Jets will make the post season. I doubt they will get past the first round.

Wild will make the playoffs.

Flames might be a wildcard team.

Capitals 3rd in Metro

Sabres will not make the playoffs.

True. Im sure there are more. IMO before the season:

Jets: Good team and penciled in as a playoff team. I dont think anyone saw 18-4 coming though.
Wild: Bubble team. Could take a wild card spot or miss.
Flames: Lottery team
Capitals: Bottom 10 caring about Ovi goals more than winning.
Sabres: Middle of the pack per usual missing the playoffs but also not getting a high draft pick.

 

[Lions67]

They're playing at like a 130+ point pace right now, aka overachieving if you expect them to end up closer to 100-105

Read my post again.
Punching way above their weight?
Hardly.

 

[Goptor]

What team outside of the playoffs is realistically going to pass the Sabres?

 

[nowhereman]

The Jets are certainly NOT “ punching way above their weight class”. Silly comment.
52 wins last year
Looking like at least 100-105 pts this year.
It’s fair to be critical of the Jets in the playoffs tue last few years, but a 5 game set ( and that’s all it really was) were they went into a slump is not enough to erase last year.
It’s time for the Jets though to at least get back to the WCF.

This team is definitely legit

"Silly"? They started off 15-1 and are on pace for for the best season in NHL history. The notion that they aren't punching above their weight is beyond silly. There's a difference between being legit and being better than the dynasty Habs.

 

[Lions67]

"Silly"? They started off 15-1 and are on pace for for the best season in NHL history. The notion that they aren't punching above their weight is beyond silly. There's a difference between being legit and being better than the dynasty Habs.

Never compared them to the dynasty Habs either lol

 

[scoopscj]

Devils have played the Capitals a lot already. They look well coached, and great positionally. I was impressed.

Jets will regress but still be excellent.

Wild look fan-flippin-tastic.

Flames need something extra to get them over the hump.

Buffalo is an enigma. Playing well, but Ruff makes bonehead line decisions. (ask me how I know)

 

[ijuka]

Buffalo Sabres out of these.

Each of Jets, Wild, and Flames have relied on their goalies vastly outplaying the opposition. As for Capitals, I'm just assuming every player is on a hot streak to start the season, I don't know how they're so good. But, I'm more confident in them sustaining it than any of these other three.

 

[winnipegger]

I have no idea why shelbyville is so good this year. Usually they are a bunch of sucky dopes. Interesting.

 

[TBF1972]

Jets - 22GP 18-4
Wild - 21GP 13-4-4
Flames - 22GP 12-7-3
Capitals - 21GP 14-6-1
Sabres - 21GP 11-9-1

just cruel to include the sabres @around .500

 

[Devonator]

Definately not Calgary....they are bums that are hilariously overachieving.....I think the Wild and Jets will remain likely strong....Capitals losing Ovie hurts them big time but they are continuing to win....Buffalo may finally be getting things together which is nice to see.