benfranklin
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- Jun 29, 2024
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Which of these overachieving teams sustain it?
- Thread starter benfranklin
- Start date
Jets have an elite goaltender, I think they have the best odds to stay in the top echelon.
Capitals are much improved but high shooting percentage suggests some retrenchment especially without Ovechkin short term. (But anything can happen in the playoffs).
Not seeing it for Calgary or Minnesota. But maybe not looking closely enough.
Buffalo could continue to win half its games in a middling Atlantic Division.
Capitals are much improved but high shooting percentage suggests some retrenchment especially without Ovechkin short term. (But anything can happen in the playoffs).
Not seeing it for Calgary or Minnesota. But maybe not looking closely enough.
Buffalo could continue to win half its games in a middling Atlantic Division.
Khelandros
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You can't say Caps will regress because of high shooting percentage and then not mention the same for Winnipeg.
1specter
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Saying the Sabres are 'overachieving' at 11-9-1 is kinda hilarious. Other Atlantic teams have been disappointing so they stand out positively more, but the Sabres finished with 84 and 91 pts the last two seasons. 11-9-1 is only a .548 pt%, and would put them at a 90 pt pace for the season. Of all the teams here, they are probably the most likely to keep their current pace realistically speaking.
Besides that, Winnipeg finished 4th in the league last season, and have Hellebuyck who is one of the best goalies in the world (in the regular season at least), so while they won't finish with 134 pts as per their current pt pace, they'll probably still end up somewhere between 110-120 pts and be a top regular season team again. The Central is also not very good this year, their only competition are Dallas and Colorado which are two good teams but Colorado has horrendous goaltending while some of Dallas' key players are struggling at the moment.
Edit: I forgot about Minnesota in the Central, so I guess my comment about weak division can be disregarded.
Besides that, Winnipeg finished 4th in the league last season, and have Hellebuyck who is one of the best goalies in the world (in the regular season at least), so while they won't finish with 134 pts as per their current pt pace, they'll probably still end up somewhere between 110-120 pts and be a top regular season team again. The Central is also not very good this year, their only competition are Dallas and Colorado which are two good teams but Colorado has horrendous goaltending while some of Dallas' key players are struggling at the moment.
Edit: I forgot about Minnesota in the Central, so I guess my comment about weak division can be disregarded.
Last edited:
Crow
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Not sure what you mean by sustain it?
Sustain the win percentage or the playoff position?
If I could predict I think the sabres could do both. Calgary does neither and the rest do the latter.
Sustain the win percentage or the playoff position?
If I could predict I think the sabres could do both. Calgary does neither and the rest do the latter.
GIN ANTONIC
Registered User
Buffalo is overachieving? They're a slightly above .500 team. That seems pretty accurate to what they are.
Out of those teams I feel like Flames could fall off the most. Winnipeg will likely slow down a bit because it's a long season and you're not gonna win like 85% of your games but they are also just a really good team so if they win the President's trophy no one should be shocked based on how they have started the year.
Out of those teams I feel like Flames could fall off the most. Winnipeg will likely slow down a bit because it's a long season and you're not gonna win like 85% of your games but they are also just a really good team so if they win the President's trophy no one should be shocked based on how they have started the year.
Minnesota won’t finish as a Top 2 team, but they clearly have a playoff team. Rossi & Faber have added depth to a core that has always been a wildcardesque group. Safe bet to finish as a playoff team.
Buffalo is not overachieving. They play in a crappy division and should be a playoff team on paper. People are just reactive to their poor start and playoff drought.
Winnipeg is legit. They do need to keep Helle rested though. I think they will finish atop the West for the regular season but I don’t think they are a lock to be favored against Dallas or Vegas in the postseason. Like Minnesota, they play with a structure that really works in the regular season but can be beat in repeated matchups like we will see in playoff format
Buffalo is not overachieving. They play in a crappy division and should be a playoff team on paper. People are just reactive to their poor start and playoff drought.
Winnipeg is legit. They do need to keep Helle rested though. I think they will finish atop the West for the regular season but I don’t think they are a lock to be favored against Dallas or Vegas in the postseason. Like Minnesota, they play with a structure that really works in the regular season but can be beat in repeated matchups like we will see in playoff format
Breakers
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They're currently in a playoff spot so they're definitely overachieving.
TheBeerNerd
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How is f*** Minnesota doing so well? Hynes is legitimately one of the worst coaches I've ever seen when he was in NJ, and Preds fans don't look fondly upon his time there either.
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Minnesota is in the Central, and they were 2nd overall in the league before last night's game. They are a very good team.
1specter
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Woops, totally missed Minny there, fair enough.
Kaprizov having an MVP type season helps, but really the whole team looks good right now. I would imagine they come back down to earth a little bit at some point, but they are just firing on all cylinders right now, at least in the games Ive watched.
TheBeerNerd
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Wouldn't be the first time the bald man has been helped by unbelievable talent. Happened in NJ with Hall, and again in Nashville with Josi.
Nogatco Rd
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BonMorrison
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I believe the Caps are actually this good. Carbery seems like a great coach.
Suntouchable13
Registered User
Buffalo is a good team. I think they have a shot to finish 2nd in the Atlantic. They will be in it the whole way.
Sabres are the most sustainable.
Winnipeg's a good team, but they're not going to maintain that pace.
The others will all fall off - to what extent who knows?
Winnipeg's a good team, but they're not going to maintain that pace.
The others will all fall off - to what extent who knows?
nowhereman
Registered User
Maybe the Sabres, only because their record isn't all that impressive. The Jets and Wild are punching way above their weight class.
GIN ANTONIC
Registered User
Not really. They are playing to the level they are expected. There are some other teams underachieving in their division and the East in general. That's not that same thing.
Romang67
BitterSwede
Their on-ice sh% 5v5 is 13.4%. Most seasons, 1 or 2 teams finish with a 5v5 sh% higher than 10%, and it's really never over 11% over 82 games.
They are getting a lot of scoring chances, but if you drop that percentage to 10%, which is normally somewhere in the range of 1 to 3 in the league, they have 16 fewer goals scored 5v5.
It's similar with the Jets, who are scoring on every 4th shot on the PP so far this season. Except the Jets will sustain it long term, cause they're my favorite team.
The caps should also get much better goaltending.
The caps are a top 5 team in expected goals share.
