Which of these Marner offer-sheets should Toronto match?

[Favin]

If you were Maple Leaf GM, which of these offer-sheets on Marner would you match?

For Toronto to consider matching possible offer-sheets, is money/length as important as the potential picks coming back? Getting four 1sts back from Ottawa (likely to be very high picks) is not the same as four 1sts from Tampa Bay (likely to be late picks).


Amount in AAV, length of contract, team offering (compensation for offer-sheet)
$8.8 million x 7 years from Ottawa (four 1sts)
$9.0 million x 6 years from LA Kings (four 1sts)
$9.5 million x 2 years from Edmonton (thewo 1sts, one 2nd, one 3rd)
$9.8 million x 6 years from NY Rangers (four 1sts)
$10.0 million x 4 years from Montreal (two 1sts, one 2nd, one 3rd)
$10.2 million x 6 years from Detroit (four 1sts)
$10.4 million x 5 years from NJ Devils (two 1sts, one 2nd, one 3rd)
$10.5 million x 6 years from Boston (four 1sts)
$10.7 million x 5 years from Nashville (four 1sts)
$10.8 million x 6 years from Arizona (four 1sts)
$11.2 million x 7 years from NY Islanders (four 1sts)
$11.6 million x 7 years from Colorado (four 1sts)
$12 million x 7 years from Tampa Bay (four 1sts)

[NOTE: these are completely fictional offers - lets assume each of these teams has necessary picks and cap pace to make offers]

I am trying to see which is the more important factor between money and compensation.

Here are implied probabilities for reaching 2020 Stanley Cup Final based on current sportsbook odds:

OTT 0.7%
LAK 2.4%
EDM 3.8%
NYR 2.4%
MTL 3.8%
DET 2.4%
NJD 2.8%
BOS 16.7%
NSH 7.7%
ARI 6.3%
NYI 6.3%
COL 16.7%
TB 25.0%

Click to read more...

 

[tony d]

Everything under 10.5 million per season.

 

[Kuhta]

Each except the last two options

 

[JoVel]

They should match everything until they recieve the four 1st round picks.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Anything under $11M, except the Detroit one because those picks are gonna be excellent.

 

[Juicy Pop]

Anything over 9.5M just let him walk while you stick Kapanen on Tavares' right side and laugh your way to the draft table.

Don't get me wrong, Marner is a great player but I don't see the merit in locking him up at the expense of being unable to re-sign Gardiner and/or being forced to deal your depth players like Kapanen or Kadri.

 

[Advanced stats]

All of them except the 12 million dollar one.

11.2, and 11.6 because they're long term.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think by the end there will be basically a consensus on all but the last 2, then about half will say yes for the 2nd last and very few will say yes for the last

 

[SotasicA]

I'd match all.

Though 4 first from Ottawa or Kings would be very tempting. Those would be good value for sure. But the offers themselves are so cheap, it makes sense to take Marner for that money.

Now if the Kings offered over 11m or something, then I'd bite.

 

[Taluss]

I'd never offer that from an Ott perspective for starters lol. I dont even know if I'd match that as a Leaf GM. Those will be low 1st

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

All of them. The Leafs were pretty much a bubble team last season with Marner putting up 90+ points. Losing Marner could well push them out of a playoff spot...especially if they lose him to Montreal...or if the Habs noticeably improve in some other way.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

All of them. The Leafs were pretty much a bubble team last season with Marner putting up 90+ points. Losing Marner could well push them out of a playoff spot...especially if they lose him to Montreal...or if the Habs noticeably improve in some other way.

*checks the standings* Leafs were 7th in the league lol that is one big ole bubble.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

*checks the standings* Leafs were 7th in the league lol that is one big ole bubble.

*checks the standings* Leafs were tied for 7th...also tied for 9th.

A single point ahead of the first eastern wildcard team.
Two points away from the last playoff team in the east.
Four points away from potentially being outside the bubble.

That bubble is a lot smaller than you think it is.

 

[CreeksideStrangler]

Each except the last two options

4 Boston bruins 1sts??? 25-30th overall? pretty much 2nds

 

[EXTRAS]

Imagine getting 4 ottawa 1sts. Could all be top 10 picks. Heiskanen + makar + petterson + draistl

Heh.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Everything under 11 except Detroit. The Ottawa picks were tempting as well but that's too good of a contract for Marner to pass up. That one in particular is a completely theoretical decision though as both decisions before ours by Ottawa and by Marner neither would happen.

 

[Revelation]

Lol why even go for Tavares if you need an 11 million dollar winger to make a 2nd line with him work.

How would letting Marner sign for 11 elsewhere, signing Lee and rolling Lee-Tavares-Nylander PLUS cap space to address that total clusterf*** of a defense PLUS 4 first round picks be worse.

 

[koyvoo]

All of them.

The 12M from Tampa might seem rich, but especially if they add Marner, those picks will be low 1sts. Chances are you find a superstar with four consecutive low 1sts.

 

[Pyrophorus]

All of them. The Leafs were pretty much a bubble team last season with Marner putting up 90+ points. Losing Marner could well push them out of a playoff spot...especially if they lose him to Montreal...or if the Habs noticeably improve in some other way.

The Leafs could improve too.

 

[OppositeLocK]

Any offer sheet from Edmonton as you know it's going to be 1st overall.

 

[Pyrophorus]

*checks the standings* Leafs were tied for 7th...also tied for 9th.

A single point ahead of the first eastern wildcard team.
Two points away from the last playoff team in the east.
Four points away from potentially being outside the bubble.

That bubble is a lot smaller than you think it is.

...and could also increase.

 

[jetsforever]

All except the last four - those are very pricey and 4 1sts are great

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

...and could also increase.

OK.

Good luck improving and increasing if they lose their top scorer to some late round 1sts who will take years to develop and some cap space with which to overpay for lesser free-agent talent.

 

[Pyrophorus]

OK.

Good luck improving and increasing if they lose their top scorer to some late round 1sts who will take years to develop and some cap space with which to overpay for lesser free-agent talent.

Not going to happen. 99% doubt we see an offer sheet.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Not going to happen. 99% doubt we see an offer sheet.

Alright. That I can believe in.

Still, the OP asked about matching offers, not about the likelihood of an offer.