Speculation: Which defencemen should we keep?

[tunnelvision]

It might be early to think about it and make any determination on some of the players but I want to get discussion started already. You can give votes now and change them later upon further thought.

My current views on the players in question:

Provorov - Trade before TDL and gain more assets. We probably have a cheaper 2LD replacement/upgrade in Mateychuk for next season. Even if Mateychuk struggled and wasn't able to fill that role right away, Provorov would most likely be too expensive to have for the on-ice value he brings.

Fabbro - It's a tricky one at the moment, the jury is still out. If he stays healthy all year, plays next to Werenski or at 2RD, scores about 30 points and continues to be a sound two-way defense-first D, what kind of a contract could he get as a free agent? Is Matt Roy's $5.75M x 6 deal from last summer a good comp? Would you want to pay him 5-6M per year, or would you save that money for RDs with greater defensive/offensive tools for example, that you could get from a well-developing prospect, trade or free agent signing? Can you imagine re-signing Fabbro and creating more room at RD by paying assets to get rid of Severson's contract?

Harris - I'd probably trade his rights if anyone wants them. To me he's been a passable 6/7D but I don't think he can support offense and a less-skilled D partner like Gudbranson well enough in the bottom pair, and play as physically as Christiansen or Hunt does.

Christiansen - I'd offer a 1-2 year deal. I'm really impressed how his skating, strength and defensive game has improved in the last two years. Should be a solid 5/6/7D at the very least, with potential to step into 2LD role when needed.

Hunt - Has a similar toolset with Harris and Christiansen but is a bit bigger and has longer reach. Has a weaker shot than Christiansen and I think his offensive IQ and puck skills are slightly worse. But he's also younger so there still might be room for improvement. I would extend him, it's possible he'll be our best option for 3LD for the next couple of years.

Knazko - I don't see a reason to give a QO, haven't seen enough progress to keep him around for longer. Might as well give his ice time in the AHL for LD prospects about to turn pro soon like Richard.

Bjorgvik-Holm - Hasn't progressed much just as Knazko. I don't think I'd care much if he was let go.

Clayton - Wouldn't be opposed to him staying if it means he won't be blocking the path for a higher upside RD Marrelli who will be in the AHL next year.

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[Aaaarrgghh]

Will Marrelli be in the AHL next year? Doesn't he have to play in the OHL if he doesn't make the Blue Jackets roster?

EDIT: As of right now, I say keep Fabbro, Hunt and Christiansen. Hunt and Christiansen can be traded if it's a deal that makes sense, but otherwise I'd keep them.

 

[tunnelvision]

Will Marrelli be in the AHL next year? Doesn't he have to play in the OHL if he doesn't make the Blue Jackets roster?

EDIT: As of right now, I say keep Fabbro, Hunt and Christiansen.

He'll be old enough in Oct and has already played 4 full seasons in juniors

 

[DankoCBJ]

Keep: Fabbro, Christiansen, Hunt, Harris

Out of those Harris might get flipped at some point of the offseason.

Start the season 25-26 with this D-core:

Werenski - Fabbro
Christiansen - Severson
Mateychuk - Gudbranson
Hunt - (Harris)

That is a good enough defence with opportunity for some guys to earn more ice-time and responsibility.

 

[VT]

Provorov and Fabbro. Hunt not because we don't know him. Christiansen, he'll be a good price, we can trade him together with a draft pick. I'd also try to trade Harris, at least for 4th round pick.

 

[alphafox]

Keep Fabbro, Christiansen and Hunt. Fabbro is the sort of glue guy you need to unlock an elite partner's true potential. Christiansen and Hunt could be a great 3rd paring and have more room to improve as I don't see them at their ceilings yet. It also gives a strong challenge to overcome for anyone in the AHL. Svozil, Elick, Marrelli, etc. all have to clear that level of player to make the team.

That gives us something like below for 2025/26 without any UFA signings or additional trades, which I expect in some fashion.

Werenski-Fabbro
Mateychuk-Severson
Christiansen/Hunt
Gudbranson (unless Bought)

 

[tunnelvision]

Hunt and Christiansen can be traded if it's a deal that makes sense, but otherwise I'd keep them.

Christiansen, he'll be a good price, we can trade him together with a draft pick.

Trading Christiansen+something package for a proven quality player in the offseason could be a smart plan if they let him play in the 2nd pair to get more exposure and thus increase his value.

 

[Viqsi]

I've already seen Fabbro go utterly unapprecitaed and end up discarded by one of my teams; if it happened with another I think I'd completely lose my mind. So my vote there is likely easy to predict.

Beyond that, Christiansen's been working out but he's been doing so more or less under the radar so I doubt we'd get much of anything for him if we put him on the market, so we're better off keeping him.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

voted for hunt + fabbro. almost voted for christiansen, but i could see him getting squeezed out this summer if they decide to sign a veteran defenseman.

i'd happily give fabbro something like 5x5 at this point. i'm sure the FO wants to see more from him before they get to that point, but he's a good player who seems to fit perfectly as a complimentary partner to a high-activation LHD. between werenski and mateychuk, there's a clear long-term home for him in the top four.

definitely don't mind christiansen but he's a lot older than people realize. he's only a year younger than fabbro. i don't doubt that he's an NHL guy but at 25 he pretty much is what he is at this point – a serviceable 6/7 type. not a bad player, but it's already a bit crowded.

also don't mind harris, but don't think there's much reason to keep him beyond this year. lacks size and tools, does make up for that with smarts and compete level, but the overall package just isn't all that effective.

hunt's still a bit of an unknown as he hasn't played here yet but based on what i've read he seems like the kind of guy who could carve out a niche as a good #5 long-term. not overly dynamic, but his skating, compete and smarts should carry him. doesn't need PP time or offensive minutes to be effective.

 

[majormajor]

- No option for keeping JJ?????

- Christiansen is the one guy who Severson has clicked with. If that's something that we can recreate then we're getting more value there than in any Christiansen trade. And let's be real, Severson is not getting traded. Beyond that Christiansen is just a good versatile low cost player.

- Fabbro is a keeper, but after his PDO returns to earth (currently 1.100) I don't think he'll have earned a Matt Roy type contract. If we see Fabbro carry a weaker pairing then that would be the one thing that would make me willing to pay him big money. We're a few weeks from when Fabbro got waived and passed over by half the league, on a $2.5m contract. I'm not too worried about him walking away from the opportunity he has here.

- Marrelli can play in the AHL next year but do we want him to? Is he ready to be a scorer at that level?

- Knazko is one of those Jarmo projects that I'm irrationally looking forward to releasing. He's never had a chance.

 

[majormajor]

i'd happily give fabbro something like 5x5 at this point. i'm sure the FO wants to see more from him before they get to that point, but he's a good player who seems to fit perfectly as a complimentary partner to a high-activation LHD. between werenski and mateychuk, there's a clear long-term home for him in the top four.

There's a fit but is that kind of big money offer even necessary?

Let's say we have Provorov showcased next to Werenski again, so we move Fabbro to a lower pair for the bulk of the season, and at the same time we now offer Fabbro $3.5m x 5.

From his perspective he should just take the money. He just got passed over by half the league and now he has to prove himself on a weaker pairing, something that didn't go well for him in Nashville.

 

[Viqsi]

There's a fit but is that kind of big money offer even necessary?

Let's say we have Provorov showcased next to Werenski again, so we move Fabbro to a lower pair for the bulk of the season, and at the same time we now offer Fabbro $3.5m x 5.

From his perspective he should just take the money. He just got passed over by half the league and now he has to prove himself on a weaker pairing, something that didn't go well for him in Nashville.

He won't carry a pairing for you, for sure - and that's the latest theory as to why Brunette apparently hated him because it's otherwise still mysterious over at HFPreds.

Truthfully, this line of argument feels to me like arguing that Zach Hyman isn't worthwhile because his production only happens next to stars. Yes, but working well with stars is itself a legitimate skill, and a genuinely valuable one.

 

[majormajor]

He won't carry a pairing for you, for sure - and that's the latest theory as to why Brunette apparently hated him because it's otherwise still mysterious over at HFPreds.

Truthfully, this line of argument feels to me like arguing that Zach Hyman isn't worthwhile because his production only happens next to stars. Yes, but working well with stars is itself a legitimate skill, and a genuinely valuable one.

I'm not disputing that Fabbro is valuable to us next to Werenski. I'm disputing that we need to pay full freight for it given how little value Fabbro seemed to have around the league. This should be the exact sort of situation where we get a good deal.

 

[Viqsi]

I'm not disputing that Fabbro is valuable to us next to Werenski. I'm disputing that we need to pay full freight for it given how little value Fabbro seemed to have around the league. This should be the exact sort of situation where we get a good deal.

That's fair; I just don't want to face the possibility of losing him a second time. It's been awesome seeing him legit appreciated lately and I want that to continue.

 

[tunnelvision]

- Marrelli can play in the AHL next year but do we want him to? Is he ready to be a scorer at that level?

Absolutely, AHL would be the better place for him to work on his weaknesses: lack of speed, explosiveness and stamina.

He just got passed over by half the league and now he has to prove himself on a weaker pairing, something that didn't go well for him in Nashville.

I think it was less than 10 teams.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

There's a fit but is that kind of big money offer even necessary?

Let's say we have Provorov showcased next to Werenski again, so we move Fabbro to a lower pair for the bulk of the season, and at the same time we now offer Fabbro $3.5m x 5.

From his perspective he should just take the money. He just got passed over by half the league and now he has to prove himself on a weaker pairing, something that didn't go well for him in Nashville.

i'd be shocked if fabbro got less than $4m or less than 5 years on the open market this summer.

1. his underlying stats with werenski are extremely good
2. he's right handed and can skate
3. he's young for a UFA (will hit the market at 27)

there's also a good chance that, if he hits UFA, he'll do so as the top RHD on the market. would be a big surprise if both ekblad and pionk don't extend, and even if they don't, they're older (both will be 30 on opening night) and will be more expensive.

assuming those two guys don't hit the open market, who else would be in line for a big UFA deal as an RHD? old man jeff petry? henri jokiharju? cody ceci? will borgen? not a great crop this year.

personally i've seen all i need to see. he's a good player and a great fit. they have plenty of cap space, and the cap is going to go up anyway.

I'm not disputing that Fabbro is valuable to us next to Werenski. I'm disputing that we need to pay full freight for it given how little value Fabbro seemed to have around the league.

i would caution against conflating his UFA value with his waivers value.

1. only 5(?) teams passed on him on waivers
2. teams don't have roster flexibility or cap space in-season
3. teams do have roster flexibility and cap space in the offseason, and he'd be one of the most sought after UFAs given his position

 

[majormajor]

i'd be shocked if fabbro got less than $4m or less than 5 years on the open market this summer.

1. his underlying stats with werenski are extremely good
2. he's right handed and can skate
3. he's young for a UFA (will hit the market at 27)

He was also right handed and could skate when he was waived and unclaimed by several clubs with cap space.

His xG% with Werenski is at 50%. I'm not sure what you're referring to. I think the fit is very good but it hasn't changed the xG% from when Provorov was there (did we forget that we all thought Werenski-Provorov was working well?).

i would caution against conflating his UFA value with his waivers value.

1. only 5(?) teams passed on him on waivers
2. teams don't have roster flexibility or cap space in-season
3. teams do have roster flexibility and cap space in the offseason, and he'd be one of the most sought after UFAs given his position

Perhaps someone with time can check this, but when he was placed on waivers (not the next day when we claimed him) we were somewhere between 10 and 15 in the waiver priority order. We lost a game that night but the order is set when the player is placed on waivers.

Several of those clubs had the cap space to claim Fabbro and chose not to. Yes it's not having roster flexibility, in the sense that preferring to play players like Timothy Liljegren and Jan Rutta over Fabbro does make one inflexible and incapable of claiming him.

 

[GoJackets1]

If Fabbro continues to partner Werenski as amazingly as he has been, I don’t care if we pay him $4-$5m.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Who gets more, Fabbro or Olivier?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I'm keeping Dante, Jake, Hunt and one of Knazko/OJBH.

I admit I'm torn on Harris. He profiles right but I haven't seen much from him on the ice where you'd say even for depth you want him around.

If JJ is working in the room, offer him a player development gig.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Keep: Fabbro, Christiansen, Hunt, Harris

Yep

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Who gets more, Fabbro or Olivier?

Only the Green Lantern knows.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Keep: Fabbro, Christiansen, Hunt, Harris

i don't see how they keep all four of these guys when they will only realistically have 7 roster spots next year for defensemen, four of which (werenski, severson, gudbranson, mateychuk) are for guys not listed here.

they also have a ton of cap space and a bunch of assets. i'd be shocked if they didn't add another established body here next year.

 

[S1N4TR4]

keep: dante, daemon, and jake.

all else, see ya.

this is the right answer.

 

[koteka]

Provorov - trade

Fabbro - too early to tell. Let's not give the Elvis contract to a guy 9 games into his Jackets career. He is promising, but let’s see how other teams adjust once they have seen him a couple of times. If he continues to play well with Werenski, I offer him a short contract.

Harris - too early to tell. Maybe he is better than he has shown but needs some time to learn the system and his teammates.

Christiansen - makes sense to keep

Hunt - makes sense to keep

Knazko - makes sense to keep another season, but I’d listen to offers

OJB-H - never seen much from him. Move on.

Clayton - makes sense to keep, wears a letter in Cleveland