Which Active Players Will Reach 500 Goals?

[Coffee]

Dark horse, but- Tage.

He’s going to win a rocket within a couple of years or at least be front runner

 

[DFC]

I think both Kucherov and Point get there. It will be a minute before Kucherov slows down.

 

[Mulletman]

I respectfully disagree with this quite emphatically.

First, the pendulum tends to swing a lot in the NHL. We had the high-flying 80s, the dead puck era 90s, a boost in scoring immediately post '04 lockout, then another major lull (and star-studded goalie era) in the 10s, followed by an uptick in the 20s that has already come down a bit. Nothing guarantees a prolonged era of high goal-scoring.

Second, you mentioned Aho. He turns 28 this Summer and needs 226 goals to get to 500. To be clear, I'm not arguing he won't get there. I am, however, saying that - on a balance of probabilities - it's less likely for a 28 year-old to record 226 goals before retiring than it is that he does it. I mentioned this before, but I think OV's totally anomalous production is seeping into our thinking. Aho has averaged 34 goals on an 82-game pace thus far. While his durability has been impressive, it's rather unlikely that he won't have a single major injury before aged 35. Even assuming he plays mostly full/healthy seasons, he'd need production something like this to reach 500:

Age 28: 34 Goals
Age 29: 32 Goals
Age 30: 30 Goals
Age 31: 28 Goals
Age 32: 28 Goals
Age 33: 28 Goals
Age 34: 28 Goals
Age 35: 28 Goals

Possible? Sure. Likely? No.

Goal scoring in the NHL is hard.

Why are you assuming Aho retires at 35? Aho is on pace to add another 9 goals this season which would give him 283 goals when he turns 28. Aho could very well do something like this instead:
Age 28: 34 Goals
Age 29: 32 Goals
Age 30: 30 Goals
Age 31: 28 Goals
Age 32: 27 Goals
Age 33: 27 Goals
Age 34: 25 Goals
Age 35: 24 Goals
Age 36: 24 goals
Age 37: 22 goals
Age 38: 23 goals
Age 39: 21 goals
Age 40: 12 goals
Age 41: 3 goals (contract terminated because the weels start falling off...)
Age 42: Aho announces his retirement without winning the cup.
That's 615 goals for Aho once it's all said and done...

You could always take some other examples.
Daniel Sedin had 245 goals after turning 28
Ray Whitney had 249 goals after turning 28
Shane Doan had 260 goals after turning 28
Martin St Louis had 320 goals after turning 28
Dino Ciccarelli had 322 goals after turning 28
Mark Recchi had 339 goals after turning 28
Patrick Marleau had 347 goals after turning 28

Except for Shane Doan all of these other players were similar players to Aho, small players who didn't play physical. If Aho can avoid a career ending injury, it would be very surprising if Aho didn't reach 500 career goals. The only other scenario I could think of is if Aho wins multiple cups and retires in his early 30s as a result of loosing his passion for hockey and that is very very unlikely...

 

[BobCole]

Why are you assuming Aho retires at 35? Aho is on pace to add another 9 goals this season which would give him 283 goals when he turns 28. Aho could very well do something like this instead:
Age 28: 34 Goals
Age 29: 32 Goals
Age 30: 30 Goals
Age 31: 28 Goals
Age 32: 27 Goals
Age 33: 27 Goals
Age 34: 25 Goals
Age 35: 24 Goals
Age 36: 24 goals
Age 37: 22 goals
Age 38: 23 goals
Age 39: 21 goals
Age 40: 12 goals
Age 41: 3 goals (contract terminated because the weels start falling off...)
Age 42: Aho announces his retirement without winning the cup.
That's 615 goals for Aho once it's all said and done...

You could always take some other examples.
Daniel Sedin had 245 goals after turning 28
Ray Whitney had 249 goals after turning 28
Shane Doan had 260 goals after turning 28
Martin St Louis had 320 goals after turning 28
Dino Ciccarelli had 322 goals after turning 28
Mark Recchi had 339 goals after turning 28
Patrick Marleau had 347 goals after turning 28

Except for Shane Doan all of these other players were similar players to Aho, small players who didn't play physical. If Aho can avoid a career ending injury, it would be very surprising if Aho didn't reach 500 career goals. The only other scenario I could think of is if Aho wins multiple cups and retires in his early 30s as a result of loosing his passion for hockey and that is very very unlikely...

I'm routing for Aho and I said that I don't think it's impossible that he does it, but I think the bolded is some extremely wishful thinking. Very, very, very, very few players have this kind of longevity. For every Sedin/Doan/St Louis, etc., you can find dozens upon dozens of other ~30 goal scorers who didn't manage to kick around until age 40, let alone while still scoring 20+ goals per season. For the record, 11 players in NHL history have scored 23+ goals at age 38 (with illustrious names like Hull, Ovechkin, Sellane, and Howe populating that list). This is the point I was originally making - that players who manage to play like this are massive outliers and not the norm. Could Aho be one? Sure. Is it likely? No.

 

[FanCos]

Wow, that's some serious spreadsheeting. I did something similar but less involved. I actually threw it by the wayside once I determined that the biggest X factor was drop in production over time. Obviously some guys on this list - like McDrai - are safe bets to get there. But a lot of guys within striking distance (~150-200 goals) are in their late-20s/early-30s, and it's highly unlikely that those guys continue scoring at .40+ GPG. I think many of us have been lulled into thinking otherwise thanks go OV's unprecedented longevity. But the fact remains that most guys' goal scoring rate drops off precipitously after 30, so even being "only" 150 goals away at age ~30 leaves a steep hill to climb. Curious which players you think will get there!

Thanks for the compliment . It was just a simple act of dividing two cells multiplied by a third.

For a proper analysis, I guess you could run a regression where explaining variables would include the age of the player, average goal scoring pace of the era, and given individuals goal scoring pace, number of missed games (or propensity to get injured) etc. to tease out the average effect of the decreasing production during the tail end of players' careers properly.

But I reckon besides the current age, the number of total games required at current pace will be a stringent constraint for many, as per QuantHockey, there are a total of 134 players with 1200 or more games played, so reaching that number is far from obvious for many players in the list -- and please note, this requires that the current pace won't taper off.

It will be interesting to see how MacKinnon and Aho will continue to score - they have identical G/PG and about two full seasons worth of difference in games required - which matches their age difference by birth year, too. I reckon you placed them two categories apart, could you explain the rationale behind that a bit? I don't mean they are equals as players, ofc - just that their goal production - so far, is equal.

Oh, and I too, think it's more likely Mac will reach that milestone, no argument there.

 

[Greatzsky 99]

Dark horse, but- Tage.

Guentzel could have a chance, 575 g 254 goals

Thanks for the compliment . It was just a simple act of dividing two cells multiplied by a third.

For a proper analysis, I guess you could run a regression where explaining variables would include the age of the player, average goal scoring pace of the era, and given individuals goal scoring pace, number of missed games (or propensity to get injured) etc. to tease out the average effect of the decreasing production during the tail end of players' careers properly.

But I reckon besides the current age, the number of total games required at current pace will be a stringent constraint for many, as per QuantHockey, there are a total of 134 players with 1200 or more games played, so reaching that number is far from obvious for many players in the list -- and please note, this requires that the current pace won't taper off.

It will be interesting to see how MacKinnon and Aho will continue to score - they have identical G/PG and about two full seasons worth of difference in games required - which matches their age difference by birth year, too. I reckon you placed them two categories apart, could you explain the rationale behind that a bit? I don't mean they are equals as players, ofc - just that their goal production - so far, is equal.

Oh, and I too, think it's more likely Mac will reach that milestone, no argument there.

Mac has so far a significant dip in GPG, he is 66th in the league, we will se if its temporary, but even if he goes to 30 per year, he should make it.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Schiefele has 328 goals ….

At the end of the season let’s predict he has 340 goals

He would have to average 26 -27 goals over the last 6 years of his current contract between the ages of 31-37. ( Do-able but not a guarantee!)

He has 31 goals this year with 24 games to play.

 

[BobCole]

Thanks for the compliment . It was just a simple act of dividing two cells multiplied by a third.

For a proper analysis, I guess you could run a regression where explaining variables would include the age of the player, average goal scoring pace of the era, and given individuals goal scoring pace, number of missed games (or propensity to get injured) etc. to tease out the average effect of the decreasing production during the tail end of players' careers properly.

But I reckon besides the current age, the number of total games required at current pace will be a stringent constraint for many, as per QuantHockey, there are a total of 134 players with 1200 or more games played, so reaching that number is far from obvious for many players in the list -- and please note, this requires that the current pace won't taper off.

It will be interesting to see how MacKinnon and Aho will continue to score - they have identical G/PG and about two full seasons worth of difference in games required - which matches their age difference by birth year, too. I reckon you placed them two categories apart, could you explain the rationale behind that a bit? I don't mean they are equals as players, ofc - just that their goal production - so far, is equal.

Oh, and I too, think it's more likely Mac will reach that milestone, no argument there.

No worries.

And re: your question, I don't have a good answer. I just saw that Mack was closer (requiring fewer than 150 goals to get there) whereas Aho needs 225. Candidly, I only really watch Aho when the Canes are playing against the Pens, whereas I've seen a lot more of Mack. I may be unfairly underrating Aho.

 

[alphahelix]

Bedard, Celebrini, Fantilli? Nobody has anything to say about guys who still have 20 more years in the league to get there?

Michkov? Guenther? Raymond? Any takers?

 

[rockymtnoyster]

Jake guentzel has a good chance!

 

[Barry Tallackson]

jack Hughes has been scoring at a 40 goal pace since his 20 year old season. I think he’ll do it if he stays healthy

 

[BobCole]

Jake guentzel has a good chance!

Pens fan & Guentzel fan here. Guentzel is 30 and needs 246 goals to reach 500. 16 players in NHL history have scored this many goals after turning 30. These include:
- All-Time legends and/or pure shooters like OV, Howe, Hull, and Iginla, and Esposito.
- Outliers who virtually set all-time games played records like Jagr and Marleau.
Not to mention other all-time greats like Messier, Selanne, and St. Louis.

As much as I love Jake, I don't think he's in that kind of company. Put it this way, between the ages of 22-30, Guentzel has recorded 254 goals. How likely is it that he virtually doubles that figure after turning 30?

 

[rockymtnoyster]

Pens fan & Guentzel fan here. Guentzel is 30 and needs 246 goals to reach 500. 16 players in NHL history have scored this many goals after turning 30. These include:
- All-Time legends and/or pure shooters like OV, Howe, Hull, and Iginla, and Esposito.
- Outliers who virtually set all-time games played records like Jagr and Marleau.
Not to mention other all-time greats like Messier, Selanne, and St. Louis.

As much as I love Jake, I don't think he's in that kind of company. Put it this way, between the ages of 22-30, Guentzel has recorded 254 goals. How likely is it that he virtually doubles that figure after turning 30?

Thought he was 28 max tbh.
Playing with Kuch will help for sure though! But yeah your probably right considering hes 30 .