Which 1st Rounder to Forfeit?

[lang006]

I actually think the punishment is well-deserved. Lying on a trade call is insane, even if the NHL should have better processes in place.

Oh I agree it’s well deserved. I just think that for some organizations the punishment would be less severe like a fine or something.

 

[aragorn]

If this team underperforms next year, we can be upset at their performance and the lost lottery pick. Woo!

Or, if they overperform and go on a run, they won't have a 1st in a better draft to upgrade at the deadline. Double win! /s

They have a 2nd for the 2026 draft along with three 3rd rd picks that they might be able to do something with should they have a player in mind relatively ranked they want to target. If they lose their 1st in 2026 they still have 4 more picks in the next two rds to do something with.

 

[Blotto71]

Staois is holding onto the pick this year. He will make an offer (they can't refuse) to Vegas with the 2026 1st round pick—only for the league to step in and shut it down, just to shove it to Vegas for complaining.

 

[Xspyrit]

It’s a no brainer to forfeit 2025.

We pick 21st
No guarantees we make playoffs next year and aren’t involved in lottery
2026 is projected to be stronger


Way way too much risk not forfeiting this years pick. Staois would be thinking short term and it could blow up in his face

Or just badly placed pride... An injury to Stutzle or Sanderson and we're in trouble. This team has one of the most glaring lack of depth in the league among playoffs hopeful teams and very little cap space to maneuver.

There is very LITTLE to gain and so much to lose. Mark my words, if they end up forfeiting a Top-15 pick in 2026, this will come back and haunt them for years and years to come. Everyone knows (or should) that we can't afford to waste a single asset with how much Dorion has dilapidated through the years. Even 7th rounds are costly to us.

Comparing 21st in 2025 to 2026's draft, it's basically ECF or bust next season.

Very stupid decision IMO.

 

[Cosmix]

Or just badly placed pride... An injury to Stutzle or Sanderson and we're in trouble. This team has one of the most glaring lack of depth in the league among playoffs hopeful teams and very little cap space to maneuver.

There is very LITTLE to gain and so much to lose. Mark my words, if they end up forfeiting a Top-15 pick in 2026, this will come back and haunt them for years and years to come

Comparing 21st in 2025 to 2026's draft, it's basically ECF or bust next season.

Very stupid decision IMO.

Just wait until you see what the Senators get for that 2025 #21 pick! It will be amazing!

 

[Stutzlaaaa]

It'seems that Staois will keeping and the pick and hoping league will not veto next year oick which is Dorionesque.21st this year is same quality as 2nd rounder. Next year draft is better even if we pick at same position. This year pick is not close to help as a 2026 pick.

The only way it will be smart to keep this pick is if he has already a deal set in the making for a really good player that will improve the team anything else is huge L going foward.

 

[Ice-Tray]

We could always wait and see how it plays out before slinging shit….. but where’s the fun in that!

 

[Cosmix]

We could always wait and see how it plays out before slinging shit….. but where’s the fun in that!

That's what we do! Stop being so damn critical!

 

[aragorn]

I expect they will get a good player at 21st OA & that they will win on appeal or a reduction in penalty given that NJ has set a precedent.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

So...is it official that we're keeping 2025? I haven't heard an actual statement form the team yet (or maybe I missed it?).

 

[Xspyrit]

So...is it official that we're keeping 2025? I haven't heard an actual statement form the team yet (or maybe I missed it?).

https://puckpedia.com/trade/982

"Ottawa Forfeits 2026 1st Round Pick due to rejected Dadonov trade"


I still have no idea why they are deciding to take that risk. It will be an unhealthy pressure on Sens players all season long. Imagine if they don't have a good start. If Stutzle is known for trying to do too much and gripping his sticks too hard, imagine now, it will literally explode in his hands lol

IF there was something to gain then maybe I would understand but a 21st OA pick in a shitty draft year is nothing worth to take such high risks for.

Even worse, imagine if they end up taking an Eliasson/Nordberg/Ostapchuk/Roger type... we're gonna be "all of this for... THAT?" lol

But even worse than that : this is a team that botched these 1st round picks recently :

- 4th OA in 2019
- 10th OA in 2021
- 7th OA in 2022
- 12th OA in 2023

It goes without saying that we can't afford to scrap another first for nothing.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I still have no idea why they are deciding to take that risk. It will be an unhealthy pressure on Sens players all season long. Imagine if they don't have a good start.

lol, players don’t care about a possible draft pick, that could make the team in 3-4 years.

 

[BondraTime]

Makes sense from Staois POV, doesn't from mine, but I'm looking at it much differently than someone who is in the know would. Scouts and management are looking at things in a much more in depth and knowledagle position than I/we are

Team desperately, desperately needs some skill, pushing that another year would hurt. They're missing thier 2nd this year and another 2nd next year from the Chychrun trade as well.

Not very optimistic with the outcome in the long run, but from the spot the Sens are in pushing it would/could hurt just as much as making the pick, there isn't really a win/win scenario, ton of risk on either side of the fence, basically just have to pick a poison and hope for the best.

 

[Xspyrit]

lol, players don’t care about a possible draft pick, that could make the team in 3-4 years.

If the team is struggling (all it takes is a few injuries), you really think that players are not going to FEEL the pressure on the organization to not give up a top-10/15 OA pick, AGAIN?

 

[Puikiou]

The only way it makes sense to keep the pick this year is if Andlauer/Staios are confident they can get Bettman to lower or forgo the penalty next season.

Otherwise, it's plain moronic.

1) Whatever injection of skill they pick this year won't play for a few seasons. How long did it take Ridly Greig?

2) Giroux/Jensen/Perron are all declining. Montreal/Buffalo/Columbus are on the rise. There's no certainty we pick lower than 21st next year.

3) All in all, our top players were exceptionally healthy this year. What happens if Stützle or Sanderson get seriously injured next season? Good night.

4) Pick #27 next year is arguably a better player than pick #21 this year. Etc. Etc.

If there's no plan to lower the penalty next year, this is peak stupidity.

 

[BondraTime]

The only way it makes sense to keep the pick this year is if Andlauer/Staios are confident they can get Bettman to lower or forgo the penalty next season.

Otherwise, it's plain moronic.

1) Whatever injection of skill they pick this year won't play for a few seasons. How long did it take Ridly Greig?

2) Giroux/Jensen/Perron are all declining. Montreal/Buffalo/Columbus are on the rise. There's no certainty we pick lower than 21st next year.

3) All in all, our top players were exceptionally healthy this year. What happens if Stützle or Sanderson get seriously injured next season? Good night.

4) Pick #27 next year is arguably a better player than pick #21 this year. Etc. Etc.

If there's no plan to lower the penalty next year, this is peak stupidity.

There’s no plan to lower the penalty, it’s not something that can be planned. They can hope, but that’s all there is.

It’s not going to be lowered, the same way there was no plan to lower the Coyotes losing their 12th, they skirted/broke league bylaws.

We can point to Jersey, but that’s is different in so many ways it’s essentially not comparable whatsoever.

We just need to accept they’d rather make their pick and think they will have a similar/worse pick next year, or just don’t care for the difference.

 

[Golden_Jet]

If the team is struggling (all it takes is a few injuries), you really think that players are not going to FEEL the pressure on the organization to not give up a top-10/15 OA pick, AGAIN?

No I don’t,

 

[Golden_Jet]

1) Whatever injection of skill they pick this year won't play for a few seasons. How long did it take Ridly Greig?

So wait yet another year, ok.

 

[Puikiou]

So wait yet another year, ok.

So a chance to get a Greig caliber player (in the very best case scenario) a year earlier is worth the risk of giving up a top 15 pick (or better) in a deep draft?

There’s no plan to lower the penalty, it’s not something that can be planned. They can hope, but that’s all there is.

It’s not going to be lowered, the same way there was no plan to lower the Coyotes losing their 12th, they skirted/broke league bylaws.

We can point to Jersey, but that’s is different in so many ways it’s essentially not comparable whatsoever.

We just need to accept they’d rather make their pick and think they will have a similar/worse pick next year, or just don’t care for the difference.

By "plan" I really meant "understanding". Sorry, l'anglais n'est pas ma première langue.

 

[Xspyrit]

The only way it makes sense to keep the pick this year is if Andlauer/Staios are confident they can get Bettman to lower or forgo the penalty next season.

Otherwise, it's plain moronic.

1) Whatever injection of skill they pick this year won't play for a few seasons. How long did it take Ridly Greig?

2) Giroux/Jensen/Perron are all declining. Montreal/Buffalo/Columbus are on the rise. There's no certainty we pick lower than 21st next year.

3) All in all, our top players were exceptionally healthy this year. What happens if Stützle or Sanderson get seriously injured next season? Good night.

4) Pick #27 next year is arguably a better player than pick #21 this year. Etc. Etc.

If there's no plan to lower the penalty next year, this is peak stupidity.

I hope they're not expecting that the NHL lowers the penalty, can't make plans on based on that kind of hope, it's a serious business with a ton of money involved. For me, it's already a sunk cost. I would have gotten rid of it as soon as possible to move on from the Dorion mismanagement years ASAP

1) with such a big difference in the quality of the 2025 and 2026 drafts, the 2026 guy we could have taken could even end up playing before the guy from 2025

2) + 3) competition will be ferocious next year, one injury and we could be screwed.

4) yeah, made that argument several times. It's basically ECF or bust to make this risk worth it lol, recipe for failure.

No I don’t,

It's very easy to imagine though

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I get the feeling the thinking is the pick is getting traded for more immediate help. That may not work and we make the pick.

Its been discussed but there is risk in keeping the pick. I don't see a tremendous advantage happening taking the pick of possibly a lesser prospect one year earlier.. that would very much be dependent on the prospects. We have seen prospects jump in earlier and some need more time so who knows when it comes to that.
Here's hoping that someone with talent, speed , hockey sense and plenty of pims falls to us.

 

[Golden_Jet]

So a chance to get a Greig caliber player (in the very best case scenario) a year earlier is worth the risk of giving up a top 15 pick (or better) in a deep draft?


By "plan" I really meant "understanding". Sorry, l'anglais n'est pas ma première langue.

You’re making assumptions they will miss the playoffs, what if they’re better, that could be an alternative assumption, what if they get the pick back, at the end of the first, like NJ did. Lots of things could happen.

 

[aragorn]

I don't think it's that big a deal, we are drafting 21st OA in this yr's draft & I expect we could be a few places improved by next yr, so who are we missing out on in next yr's draft that is better than who we pick in this yr's draft?

 

[Ice-Tray]

I suspect that they aren’t planning based on maybe falling apart next season. That is a loser mentality that really shouldn’t play into the decision making today in a pro organization that is on the upswing.

This is a team on the rise that could use that asset a year sooner rather than a year later as a prospect, or in a trade for help right now.

They obviously are fine with the calibre of players available at 21 this year, which they know in a general sense, vs what could be available somewhere next year.

It is what it is. Tear the bandaid off and move on. No need to try and overthink, bet hedge, or try to be the smartest brain in the room.

There are two options with pros and cons, gotta roll with whatever the team chooses to go with and move on.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I suspect that they aren’t planning based on maybe falling apart next season. That is a loser mentality that really shouldn’t play into the decision making today in a pro organization that is on the upswing.

This is a team on the rise that could use that asset a year sooner rather than a year later as a prospect, or in a trade for help right now.

They obviously are fine with the calibre of players available at 21 this year, which they know in a general sense, vs what could be available somewhere next year.

It is what it is. Tear the bandaid off and move on. No need to try and overthink, bet hedge, or try to be the smartest brain in the room.

There are two options with pros and cons, gotta roll with whatever the team chooses to go with and move on.

It's not a loser mentality, it's just risk/reward evaluation, which is what any smart team does when making any significant decision.

Shit happens. The Devils are a team on the upswing like we are but they almost missed the playoffs due to injuries to several of their key players.

There's also a ton of parity in the league. The team that won the Presidents trophy last year just missed the playoffs.

We're by no means a lock to make the playoffs next season. Realizing that is not having a losers mentality.

It's extremely obvious that the team is only keeping the pick this year to give Andlauer more time to push Bettman to reverse or lower the penalty, not because they are burying their head in the sand and assuming we'll finish much higher than 11th best in the league next year, which is what we'd need to do to end up with a worse prospect considering the 2026 draft is almost universally viewed as better than this 2025 class and the players available at 21 this year is likely to be worse than the players available at 21 next year.