Which 1st Rounder to Forfeit?

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I think that they are going to give up the pick. My theory is that Andlauer is talking a big game for optics. They don't want Staios giving up the pick to be perceived as a vote of non-confidence in the team. Having Andlauer present it like he would like to keep the pick, but it's up to Staios to decide based on the strength of the draft.

It prevents the narrative from forming that they think they will be outside the playoffs next year. They can present it as they viewed the last pick in the first round next year as being stronger than the 21st, so it was a no brainer to keep it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I think that they are going to give up the pick. My theory is that Andlauer is talking a big game for optics. They don't want Staios giving up the pick to be perceived as a vote of non-confidence in the team. Having Andlauer present it like he would like to keep the pick, but it's up to Staios to decide based on the strength of the draft.

It prevents the narrative from forming that they think they will be outside the playoffs next year. They can present it as they viewed the last pick in the first round next year as being stronger than the 21st, so it was a no brainer to keep it.

I’ll be surprised if they give up the pick this year.

 

[PlayOn]

I think that they are going to give up the pick. My theory is that Andlauer is talking a big game for optics. They don't want Staios giving up the pick to be perceived as a vote of non-confidence in the team. Having Andlauer present it like he would like to keep the pick, but it's up to Staios to decide based on the strength of the draft.

It prevents the narrative from forming that they think they will be outside the playoffs next year. They can present it as they viewed the last pick in the first round next year as being stronger than the 21st, so it was a no brainer to keep it.

I agree. They’ve changed their tune because before they kept saying they’d push it back as far as possible and now it’s “we have to decide what to do”. I’d imagine they already know and are just softly re-positioning until they announce it.

 

[bicboi64]

Stupid NHL, why can't they let us decide right before the draft

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I wonder if they actually have a later deadline to give up the pick.

All we have heard is within x amount of time of the draft lottery. But the Senators aren't in the lottery, they are in the playoffs. That means that their pick isn't fully determined until they are both eliminated from the playoffs, and the conference final teams are set. As of now, their pick could be as high as 17 or as low as 32.

So I wonder if the league will set a different deadline. It seems poorly thought out, or like it was thought it when it being assumed that the Senators would be part of the lottery.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I wonder if they actually have a later deadline to give up the pick.

All we have heard is within x amount of time of the draft lottery. But the Senators aren't in the lottery, they are in the playoffs. That means that their pick isn't fully determined until they are both eliminated from the playoffs, and the conference final teams are set. As of now, their pick could be as high as 17 or as low as 32.

So I wonder if the league will set a different deadline. It seems poorly thought out, or like it was thought it when it being assumed that the Senators would be part of the lottery.

100% agreeing with that.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Stupid NHL, why can't they let us decide right before the draft

I can only imagine it is to make it as steep of a punishment as possible and prevent the Senators from maximizing their situation.

I don't think it matters as much with the Senators picking in the late portion of the draft, but if we were picking in the top 5 or top 10, the internal value of the pick changes dramatically depending on who is on the board.

Using the example of Dorion with the conditional 4th OA in 2018, he claimed that he had Tkachuk higher than everybody in 2019 except Hughes, so it made sense to keep the pick. Because of how the conditions were set between OTT/COL, Dorion had the benefit of waiting to see if Tkachuk would be there at 4. Assuming that he was only keeping the pick if Tkachuk was on the board at 4, that would have made it a lot more difficult to choose if he didn't have the benefit of seeing who fell to 4.

 

[Cosmix]

Michael McCaron C/RW fits the bill, also plays PK, good at faceoffs, hits, fights & adds some offence & is cheap at $.900K.

Sounds exactly like the type of 4C we need.

 

[OmniSens]

21st overall... Forfeit!

 

[Ice-Tray]

Either way, our scouts aren’t going to likely be the deciding factor with our first round pick whenever we make it, so that will mitigate the effects of everyone’s favourite scouting staff.

It’s the later picks that we aren’t losing to the league, where our scouts truly shine

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Rip the bandaid off now. Too many uncertainties about our division next year and the top of next year's draft is too good.

 

[bert]

Neither, easy answer.

Rip the bandaid off now. Too many uncertainties about our division next year and the top of next year's draft is too good.

This team is going to be no where near the position to be picking in the lottery. Make the pick and get in Garys ear every day for the next 300 days before the 2026 draft.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

We could try to give the league Boucher.

 

[Senator Stanley]

Neither, easy answer.


This team is going to be no where near the position to be picking in the lottery. Make the pick and get in Garys ear every day for the next 300 days before the 2026 draft.

I think it comes down to whether you think Gary is going to change his mind on this. Personally, I don't see that happening if it doesn't happen by the time we have to make a decision this year (i.e. in the next four days). Now's the time to be in his ear. If it doesn't work now, I don't think it works later.

Outside of that factor, I would rather have the 2026 first. This class doesn't look very strong in the early 20s, and 2026 is looking better. Plus - even if it's a smaller factor - I would prefer to protect ourselves in the unlikely event that we miss the playoffs and are a lottery team next year. Because if things go to shit next year, and we also don't have our first round lottery pick because of Pierre f***ing Dorion, I don't think I could take it.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

There's no way the Rangers are going to miss the playoffs in 2025.
There's no way LA missed the playoffs after winning the Cup.
There's no way Vancouver regresses in 2025.

These things happen. Can we at least make the playoffs twice in a row before pretending we're a lock to make it?

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Neither, easy answer.


This team is going to be no where near the position to be picking in the lottery. Make the pick and get in Garys ear every day for the next 300 days before the 2026 draft.

The most generous thing I think that the league realistically can do is give us the 32nd pick in 2026. I think the prospect of us getting back our real pick is a pipe dream.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

Gotta forfeit it - The draft is meh and like others have mentioned, I want protection next year in case for whatever reason we suck - at least we have a pick to look forward to in a way better draft.

 

[Senator Stanley]

The most generous thing I think that the league realistically can do is give us the 32nd pick in 2026. I think the prospect of us getting back our real pick is a pipe dream.

People point to what he did for New Jersey as evidence that he might do the same for Ottawa. I wonder if that actually works against Ottawa.

If you're Bettman, you want teams to take the threat of your punishment seriously. He's already let New Jersey off the hook, but he can explain that away as an exceptional case. If he lets Ottawa off the hook, too, it's establishing a clear precedent for other owners that Bettman's punishments are negotiable. I think he'd rather stand firm on Ottawa, even if it looks hypocritical to the Sens organization, than put himself in a position where every team points to New Jersey and Ottawa and says "well now you have to go easy on us".

 

[Sun God Nika]

Just forfeit it and tell the team the 2026 first rounder will be used to make the team better at the next deadline.

 

[Sun God Nika]

People point to what he did for New Jersey as evidence that he might do the same for Ottawa. I wonder if that actually works against Ottawa.

If you're Bettman, you want teams to take the threat of your punishment seriously. He's already let New Jersey off the hook, but he can explain that away as an exceptional case. If he lets Ottawa off the hook, too, it's establishing a clear precedent for other owners that Bettman's punishments are negotiable. I think he'd rather stand firm on Ottawa, even if it looks hypocritical to the Sens organization, than put himself in a position where every team points to New Jersey and Ottawa and says "well now you have to go easy on us".

I think if Andlauer doesn't get similar compensation he should just go for it and sue. The fanbase will have his back for sure.

 

[GCK]

Make one final push to Betteman.

Ask to have our 2025 pick lowered by 32 spots and a 100K fine.

 

[Hale The Villain]

People point to what he did for New Jersey as evidence that he might do the same for Ottawa. I wonder if that actually works against Ottawa.

If you're Bettman, you want teams to take the threat of your punishment seriously. He's already let New Jersey off the hook, but he can explain that away as an exceptional case. If he lets Ottawa off the hook, too, it's establishing a clear precedent for other owners that Bettman's punishments are negotiable. I think he'd rather stand firm on Ottawa, even if it looks hypocritical to the Sens organization, than to put himself in a position where every team points to New Jersey and Ottawa and says "well now you have to go easy on us".

It's also worth stressing that Kovalchuk unexpectedly leaving the NHL and going back to Russia played a big role in the penalty being lessened.

Not only did they lose the benefit of having Kovalchuk on a reduced cap hit for many years of the contract, but it also resulted in them getting an annual cap recapture penalty of 250k for over a decade.

Also while the 1st round pick penalty was reduced, they also lost a 3rd round pick and paid 1.5M in fines. They weren't let off the hook scot-free by any means.

People hoping Bettman will completely reverse the penalty and give us back our 1st because Andlauer whines to him about how it's unfair are setting themselves up for disappointment.

 

[Senator Stanley]

I think if Andlauer doesn't get similar compensation he should just go for it and sue. The fanbase will have his back for sure.

Who is he suing? He bought the team from the Melnyk trust, not the NHL.

It's possible that the Melnyk trust represented to him that there wasn't an open investigation, and it turned out there was, but even if that were true, his recourse is against the Melynk trust, not the NHL.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Make one final push to Betteman.

Ask to have our 2025 pick lowered by 32 spots and a 100K fine.

Raise the fine to $2.5m and I’m sure it could be settled pretty quickly

 

[Gil Gunderson]

People point to what he did for New Jersey as evidence that he might do the same for Ottawa. I wonder if that actually works against Ottawa.

If you're Bettman, you want teams to take the threat of your punishment seriously. He's already let New Jersey off the hook, but he can explain that away as an exceptional case. If he lets Ottawa off the hook, too, it's establishing a clear precedent for other owners that Bettman's punishments are negotiable. I think he'd rather stand firm on Ottawa, even if it looks hypocritical to the Sens organization, than put himself in a position where every team points to New Jersey and Ottawa and says "well now you have to go easy on us".

New Jersey didn’t get their real pick back, just the 30th.