Which 1st Rounder to Forfeit?

[Wallet Inspector]

Seems like they're keeping the 2025 pick.

Oof, I was worried about this, Staois and Andlauer have been great but they also seem like the types to get a little prideful, hopefully they reconsider.

 

[Icelevel]

Seems like they're keeping the 2025 pick.

Good decision imo. Relatively simple one.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Why would it be likely we collapse next season? If anything we could also be better next yr, who is to say? Anything can happen as you said, but I doubt we make decisions based on the worse case scenario. Either way is a risk, I doubt either way they go matters much in the long term. If they have an opportunity to draft a good player this yr they should go for it, I don't see any reason to wait for the following draft. Hoping we do badly next season so we will have a shot at a better player is not a strategy.

likely no , possible yes.

Sharks went from 101 pts in 2018/19 to 63 pts in 2019/20... Sens end up w 3OA pick

 

[Icelevel]

likely no , possible yes.

Sharks went from 101 pts in 2018/19 to 63 pts in 2019/20... Sens end up w 3OA pick

That’s newsworthy for a reason. Don’t want to start betting against the success of the organization while we’re just starting to build momentum. Time to go for it.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That’s newsworthy for a reason. Don’t want to start betting against the success of the organization while we’re just starting to build momentum. Time to go for it.

I think its worth examining every aspect. Plan for the worst hope for the best. I am not saying because its happened to other teams it will happen to us.. but it could. Is gambling on the pick our scouts make in 2025 worth the risk?

many things can happen. On that list are

-the possibility of having the penalty of a 1st round pick reduced - if you believe in that you take the pick in 2025
- the possibility of making new hires and having an improved scouting staff by 2026 - Picking this year may not yield the player sooner if at all.
- the relative strengths of the draft depth which draft will be stronger in that 15-20 range.
- Injuries happen .. if they are key they can derail the season
- Sens improve their finish and the pick drops enough to care about.

 

[aragorn]

likely no , possible yes.

Sharks went from 101 pts in 2018/19 to 63 pts in 2019/20... Sens end up w 3OA pick

Are we making decisions on what may or may not happen because it happened to some other team? I don't think so, we have a good team & we should be confident that they will do as well next season & make decisions based on that rather than the negative of not making it for whatever reasons. Elite athletes always think they are going to win, they don't think about losing & rid themselves of negative thoughts, so should management. Play to win.

 

[bicboi64]

Haha NYR, get rekt Dolan

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Are we making decisions on what may or may not happen because it happened to some other team? I don't think so, we have a good team & we should be confident that they will do as well next season & make decisions based on that rather than the negative of not making it for whatever reasons. Elite athletes always think they are going to win, they don't think about losing & rid themselves of negative thoughts, so should management. Play to win.

I think its worth examining every aspect. Plan for the worst hope for the best. I am not saying because its happened to other teams it will happen to us.. but it could. Is gambling on the pick our scouts make in 2025 worth the risk?

many things can happen. On that list are

-the possibility of having the penalty of a 1st round pick reduced - if you believe in that you take the pick in 2025
- the possibility of making new hires and having an improved scouting staff by 2026 - Picking this year may not yield the player sooner if at all.
- the relative strengths of the draft depth which draft will be stronger in that 15-20 range.
- Injuries happen .. if they are key they can derail the season
- Sens improve their finish and the pick drops enough to care about.

very next post
Should be obvious by default but I guess we have to spell everything out on hf

 

[ottawagm]

Oof, I was worried about this, Staois and Andlauer have been great but they also seem like the types to get a little prideful, hopefully they reconsider.

Maybe they are hoping Bettman retires and the replacement is OK to drop it to a later round.

Otherwise just give up this pick after you win the cup.

 

[Ice-Tray]

You don’t bet on negativity. Make the pick this year and give next years away. It should be a later pick.

It would be dumb to give away the higher pick just because you out cleverer yourself by being a negative Nancy.

If it happens and we bottom out, then oh well, we got beaten by an anomaly, and we have a much worse problem to deal with than a first rounder.

There is no need to be scared of success, the team has earned some confidence here, and the right to bet on themselves.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

If it happens and we bottom out, then oh well, we got beaten by an anomaly, and we have a much worse problem to deal with than a first rounder.

A wildcard team missing the playoffs the following year isn’t really an anomaly.

Anyway, I haven’t been a fan of the way this team has drafted over the last 4 drafts. At the very least deferring the pick means there’s a chance a new scouting staff gets to work on making the pick. The homework for the 2025 deaft is pretty mych done.

 

[mysens]

Maybe Andlauer knows that Travis Hamonic not resigning for next year is always good for 4 or 5 more wins. Good odds!

 

[Rand0m]

IMO, the ‘25 mid 1st round pick likely won’t improve the team in the next year or two.

By giving up this years pick, the team can leverage the ‘26 pick at the trade deadline if they feel they improved vs this year. You can get some good players for a playoff run with a 1st in ‘26. If they’re playing worse, then just keep the pick which would be better than this year anyway.

 

[bert]

Oof, I was worried about this, Staois and Andlauer have been great but they also seem like the types to get a little prideful, hopefully they reconsider.

Its the right decision 10 times out of 10. Mind boggling that people are voting the other way. Has nothing to do with pride. This team is only going to get better and this gives them more time to try and fight to get it back.

 

[Icelevel]

Its the right decision 10 times out of 10. Mind boggling that people are voting the other way. Has nothing to do with pride. This team is only going to get better and this gives them more time to try and fight to get it back.

83% against us bert.

What’s happeningggggggggg?

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I guess we can start looking at some big guys typically ranked around 40 - 50

I hope this is just face saving, so that when someone inevitably asks if they felt the team would take a step back next year, Andlauer can lean on publicly wanting to keep the pick, but trusting his scouting group and letting them give it up.

Staios seemed to throw cold water on the idea of it being forgiven at the recent fan Q&A. Unless Andlauer has a rock solid indication that Bettman will drop it to a second or something, keeping the 2025 pick is too risky of a choice. There is a reason even good teams protect picks in most trades. If a contender trades away a protected pick, that doesn't mean that they think they will suck next year. So the Senators giving the league an unprotected 1st when they possibly have a golden opportunity to give up a late 1st and get some cost certainty seems extremely reckless.

 

[NyQuil]

If it happens and we bottom out, then oh well, we got beaten by an anomaly, and we have a much worse problem to deal with than a first rounder.

If we bottom out due to some anomaly, we get a huge infusion of skill into our line-up and we go right back to winning again the following year.

To me it's a no-brainer to give this year's away.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Historically we pretty much always missed the playoffs when we entered a season without our 1st round pick lol. We were pretty confident we were going to get better each time too (other than 2019).

It’s literally not even close to an anomaly at all lmao.

 

[Hale The Villain]

You don’t bet on negativity. Make the pick this year and give next years away. It should be a later pick.

It would be dumb to give away the higher pick just because you out cleverer yourself by being a negative Nancy.

If it happens and we bottom out, then oh well, we got beaten by an anomaly, and we have a much worse problem to deal with than a first rounder.

There is no need to be scared of success, the team has earned some confidence here, and the right to bet on themselves.

It's not a matter of positivity or negativity, it's a matter of risk management.

Our pick is currently 20th and could be 21st if we finish the season strong.

The consensus is that the 2026 draft class is better than this one, so a pick in the 22-32 range may not end up being less valuable, as it may be able to produce a better potential NHLer than our pick this year anyways due to the weaker crop. There's a reason so many teams were comfortable trading away high picks this year at the deadline.

So the downside with keeping the pick appears to be rather limited, while the upside in potentially selecting higher than 20th/21st next year in a stronger draft class is much bigger.

People thought the way you do back in the summer of 2014 when we dealt an unprotected 1st for Bobby Ryan after making the playoffs. No one wanted to face the realization that dropping in the standings, whether due to players taking a step back, injuries hitting the team or even bad luck, was a distinct possibility in a league with significant parity.

Staios isn't paid to make thoughtless decisions and say "oh well" if they don't pan out. That's the Pierre Dorion approach that we've moved on from. He'll actually think about the risk/reward involved, which is more I can say for a lot of people in this thread.

 

[Hale The Villain]

If they are leaning towards keeping the pick, I'm sure Staios will shop around to see what teams would be willing to give up for our unprotected 1st in 2026.

Maybe a team picking slightly higher in the 15-20 range that isn't thrilled with the prospects available this year would be comfortable swapping that pick for the Sens' 2026 1st in the hopes shit hits the fan for us next year and we end up missing the playoffs.

Philly did that last year by trading the 32nd pick to the Oilers for their 2025 1st, which is currently 23rd, but the Oilers' pick was top 12 protected.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

If they are leaning towards keeping the pick, I'm sure Staios will shop around to see what teams would be willing to give up for our unprotected 1st in 2026.

Maybe a team picking slightly higher in the 15-20 range that isn't thrilled with the prospects available this year would be comfortable swapping that pick for the Sens' 2026 1st in the hopes shit hits the fan for us next year and we end up missing the playoffs.

Philly did that last year by trading the 32nd pick to the Oilers for their 2025 1st, which is currently 23rd, but the Oilers' pick was top 12 protected.

There are mixed messages about the league reducing the punishment, but the problem with this strategy is that losing our 2025 pick would close the book on that since it would resolve the case with the league. So I don't think the above is a solution if we take the Andlauer comments at face value.

I suggested something similar earlier in the thread. The idea being we could possibly trade our 2026 pick for a 2025 pick in the same range as we are picking, but include some form of protection that we wouldn't get if we gave up the 2026 pick to the league. When I made that suggestion, the most recent comment about the league reducing the punishment was Staios being dismissive to the idea that it is a consideration.

If we take the league punishment aspect out of it, and assume this is set in stone, then in a scenario where we want to stay in the 2025 draft, it probably makes sense to explore what our 2026 protected pick is worth to teams picking in the range of our pick (19th currently). That range likely being determined by where we see the tier the 19th pick is in cutting off. It could be a draft where we can't move any farther back and still get a similar player, or 19th could already be far enough back that we missed out on the higher tiers and even moving back to the late 20s would produce what we would consider to be a similar player. In that scenario, it would be pretty easy to flip our 2026 1st with playoff protection for a pick in the 20+ type range. I'm sure someone who has multiple picks might bite.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Its the right decision 10 times out of 10. Mind boggling that people are voting the other way. Has nothing to do with pride. This team is only going to get better and this gives them more time to try and fight to get it back.

There's no guarantee that we will finish better next season, injuries can make things difficult if they occur and teams that finished below us this year could bounce back. Better to give up the guaranteed mediocre pick now and focus on the future.

 

[bert]

There's no guarantee that we will finish better next season, injuries can make things difficult if they occur and teams that finished below us this year could bounce back. Better to give up the guaranteed mediocre pick now and focus on the future.

But giving up for sure is giving in and there is no way they should do that until the bitter end.

Chances are they will be better next season.

 

[Masked]

But giving up for sure is giving in and there is no way they should do that until the bitter end.

Andlauer doesn't have the juice that Josh Harris had in Jersey.

The NHL doesn't view Andlauer as someone they need to respect or they wouldn't have hid the Dadonov and Pinto issues from him when he was buying the team. Having the NHL scale back the punishment is a pipedream.

 

[OUT HOUSE]

Oh god.. a late 1st in a weaker draft vs. a complete unknown in a stronger draft.