Which 1st Rounder to Forfeit?

[Golden_Jet]

Now that the season is coming to a close, our good friend steady Steve Staios will have a big decision to make in the early stages of the offseason. Credit where credit is due, we couldn’t have gotten here without Pierre Dorion.

Which first rounder should the Sens give away as a result of the botched Dadonov trade?

Things to consider:

- The Sens pick this year should be around 18-20 depending on the results of the last 5 games, and playoff results.

- The 2026 draft is widely considered a better draft than 2025. A first in 2026 might have better value in a trade (if it ever came to that).

- A player drafted this offseason is more likely to play for the team during this team’s contention window, but would still be 2-3 years away in a best case scenario.

- The 2026 pick is likely to be in the same range as this year’s pick (Let’s say possibly between 17-25).

- Could there be a chance that the penalty is revised by Bettman if the team only forfeits the 2026 pick? This may be a long shot but I wonder if it could impact the decision.

What would you do?

Why are multiple votes allowed?

 

[milkbag]

2025 because of the devil you know vs devil you don't. Shit happens and we could have multiple major injuries next year and "be f***ing suck" in the immortal words of Ovie. We know we have a pretty late 1st this year in a weak draft so why not

 

[Golden_Jet]

2025 because of the devil you know vs devil you don't. Shit happens and we could have multiple major injuries next year and "be f***ing suck" in the immortal words of Ovie. We know we have a pretty late 1st this year in a weak draft so why not

The devil I know, got their first back at the end of the first round.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

The Coyotes punishment is the closer comparable.

The league relented with the Devil's because everybody circumvented the cap, and they were the only team punished.

We already had the punishment lowered. We originally were going to have to give up our 2024 1st, which would have been Yakemchuk. The league agreed to give us the 3 year window. We also asked if we could give up the Boston pick since we already owned it at the time of the punishment, but they was turned down by the league.

I don't think it's realistic to expect the league to go back on the penalty. Even Staios in the recent QA commented that they aren't operating with that as an expectation.

It is a no brainer to give it up this year for the cost certainty of giving up a late pick and also just to put the chaos behind us.

If they were willing to give up the Boston pick last year, which they apparently were but the league refused, that points to them probably valuing cost certainty over getting the pick a year sooner. It also points to them not believing that the league will relent of they wait until the final year.

 

[Xspyrit]

Many are not confident that the team will do as good next season, potentially missing the playoffs.

Nothing to do with that, it's just pure logic

The fact that I would take the 25th OA pick in 2026 over the 18th OA pick in 2025, this poll becomes very easy to answer and frankly, I am a bit surprised that it is still open and not closed already for being AINEC

I know sports fans always want to think that their team is going so much better next year but there’s no guarantee and even if it happens, the difference between the 2 drafts more than counters that. We'd probably need to make the ECF for the GAMBLE to be worth it

Logic : don't take the risk, give the 2025 pick

The risk/reward factor makes it an easy choice to forfeit 25. Though wait until the last day of the deadline to choose and keep pushing for Bettman to rescind the penalty

Exactly and if the penalty was going to change, it would have happened already, particularly after the backlash from Andlauer just after he bought the team for near a billion already.

 

[TheNewEra]

Interesting results so far. Most people are saying we should forfeit this season and keep the pick in a better draft.

Many are not confident that the team will do as good next season, potentially missing the playoffs. Others think the team will do better next season.

I think the team has a good chance to be better next season or at least more consistent. I think individual players have a set role on the team now which we had not necessarily seen in the past. There will be an understanding of system’s from day 1 from the players which will be a big change from this year. There will also be a level of comfort from guys like Ullmark, Amadio, Perron, Cozens, Zetterlund and Jensen right off the hop. Sanderson has been much better in the 2nd half of the season, I would expect him to have this level of play from the start of next season. Stutzle has room to improve. Cozens has room to improve. Making the playoffs this season should be a confidence booster.

Merilainen will come in and back-up Ullmark. That could stabilize the back-up position although Forsberg has pretty good numbers for a backup.

Staios has my confidence in filling the holes on the roster. I think we need a 4th line center. A RHD and a top 6 forward (Giroux replacement potentially).

Tampa, Florida, Toronto should still be very good. I could see Montreal adding in the offseason to their group and I could see Buffalo and Detroit taking steps as well. I think there is reason to be weary.

I think I would be forfeiting the 2025 pick as well all things considered.

adding to this is boston, i dont see a team with neely and sweeney as part of the management group rebuilding, and bostons season really went off the rails when they got a million injuries otherwise they were in a playoff spot.

We have room for growth for sure. Tampa and Florida will still be good. Leafs will be a different team but should be a playoff one. Montreal will be in the mix as well.

So thats 6 teams including us without factoring in buffalo and detroit. At best our division can take 5 spots.

Give up the pick this year because we arent going to get a penalty reduction since we arent an american team. We will need that 2026 pick as an asset to either add to our team at the deadline or use if we are on the outside looking in.

 

[thinkwild]

I dont see what the basis would be for Bettman giving us a 1st at the end of the round let alone rescinding it. Pity? Lou still made a case. Im not inclined to believe that will happen. Rip the bandaid off.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The Coyotes punishment is the closer comparable.

The league relented with the Devil's because everybody circumvented the cap, and they were the only team punished.

We already had the punishment lowered. We originally were going to have to give up our 2024 1st, which would have been Yakemchuk. The league agreed to give us the 3 year window. We also asked if we could give up the Boston pick since we already owned it at the time of the punishment, but they was turned down by the league.

I don't think it's realistic to expect the league to go back on the penalty. Even Staios in the recent QA commented that they aren't operating with that as an expectation.

It is a no brainer to give it up this year for the cost certainty of giving up a late pick and also just to put the chaos behind us.

If they were willing to give up the Boston pick last year, which they apparently were but the league refused, that points to them probably valuing cost certainty over getting the pick a year sooner. It also points to them not believing that the league will relent of they wait until the final year.

It was always a 3 year window.
Here is the original presser

Senators to forfeit 1st-round pick in 2024, 2025 or 2026 NHL Draft | NHL.com

Ottawa penalized for role in trades of Dadonov to Golden Knights, Ducks

www.nhl.com

 

[Micklebot]

2025 winning is absolutely mind boggling. Already explained it in another thread. But the basics of it is Ottawa gets an extra year to fight for it. Barring major injuries they will be a better team next season due to natural progression and Staios having another offseason to make them better. In which he undeniably has. Third they need infusion of talent to match up and keep this core going sooner rather than later.

I agree with you in principal, but...

I have zero faith that the NHL will ever let us catch a break and downgrade the punishment. The team has made it clear they are operating under the assumption that the NHL will not change the punishment,

Next year's draft is suppose to be stronger, how much I'm not sure, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 20OA in 2025 to be valued similarly to 29-32nd OA in 2026, so I'm not concerned about the team progressing at next year's pick being a worse one.

The only element where I 100% on board with you is that we need an injection of talent from the draft ASAP so even if 2025 and 2026 are equal, waiting an extra year hurts. We don't have a 2nd this year either, so if we give it up this year, that means no picks until the 3rd round

I'm ok with whatever the team decides tbh, I think there is value in both approaches, don't envy Staios for having to make the call....

 

[Crosside]

The fact we trade for the Buffalo second next year. I think we keep this year first. If not, no pick until third round

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

It was always a 3 year window.
Here is the original presser

Senators to forfeit 1st-round pick in 2024, 2025 or 2026 NHL Draft | NHL.com

Ottawa penalized for role in trades of Dadonov to Golden Knights, Ducks

www.nhl.com

I never claimed that it was originally announced as the 2024 pick, then the league changed it.

I claimed that the league already gave them a consolation with the 3 year window, when Arizona did not get the same. When you look at how we would have possibly lost the 7th overall, and now we're set to lose 19th to 32nd, that's a pretty big consolation already.

 

[bicboi64]

Despite how much weaker this draft class is compared to 2026, whomever we draft would be our 2nd best prospect by a far margin. Someone like Spence, Carbonneau, Lakovic, or Kindel would be nice winger prospects that might be able to start stepping in as we look for Giroux/Perron replacements in a few years.

I'm onboard with keeping the 2026 because shit happens and we're a couple of injuries away from not making the playoffs/being a basement team, but this draft class being consider weaker doesn't change how we'd benefit from some ELC talent. If we keep the 2026 pick, I hope its with the intention of using it to start drafting players and not trade it (unless its a no brainer trade)

 

[Golden_Jet]

I never claimed that it was originally announced as the 2024 pick, then the league changed it.

I claimed that the league already gave them a consolation with the 3 year window, when Arizona did not get the same. When you look at how we would have possibly lost the 7th overall, and now we're set to lose 19th to 32nd, that's a pretty big consolation already.

Hear what you said, I guess interpret that how you want then.

We already had the punishment lowered. We originally were going to have to give up our 2024 1st, which would have been Yakemchuk.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

The fact we trade for the Buffalo second next year. I think we keep this year first. If not, no pick until third round

I think it is just as likely that it is the opposite. We might view that the 2026 draft is better in the late 1st to early 2nd range. So we might have specifically targeted the pick next year for that reason. Especially since we gave up our own 2nd in the San Jose trade.

Even if we want to be in the 2025 1st round, I still think it makes sense to give up the pick. Like I said in my other post, we might be able to reasonably project an opportunity to trade back into the 2025 1st round with our 2026 1st round pick. The benefit being, we can protect the pick to give us some cost certainty against it being a lottery pick. We likely end up with a similar prospect in 2025, but we get the benefit of not getting screwed if we have a bad season and miss the playoffs.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Hear what you said, I guess interpret that how you want then.

We already had the punishment lowered. We originally were going to have to give up our 2024 1st, which would have been Yakemchuk.

Yes, it was discussed at one point how the league relented and agreed to a 3-year window as a consolation. Originally, they wanted the 2024 pick. This was prior to the punishment being announced. You posted a link to the press release when the punishment was announced.

I will try to find the radio hit/press conference source for that.

Andlauer has been very candid that he doesn't expect the NHL to relent, and while Staios as of this month threw cold water on that as well. I don't know why people still cling to it as an expectation. We already got off easy when you consider what happened to Arizona, which is likely the closest apples to apples comparison. The New Jersey thing was a decade or so ago, and while they did have an ownership change, cap circumvention was rampant with nobody else punished.

 

[SlapJack]

2025. Better draft next year AND we don't know where we'll finish either. You'd think we'd be better, but anything can happen. I'd rather deal with what's known then what could be.

Imagine if this was a penalty applied to the Avalanche in 2016 where they could choose 2016 or 2017. They missed the playoffs by 5 points at the end of the 15-16 season and as a result would pick 10th in 2016. Now that would be hard to give up because they were a team with Landeskog, Duchene, Iginla, Barrie, Erik Johnson, young guns MacKinnon and Rantanen, and the rewards from the O'Reilly trade in Zadorov, Compher, and Grigorenko.

They drafted Tyson Jost with that pick. Then they had a disastrous season following that, finishing in last place, and to add insult to injury they subsequently lost the lottery and had to settle for 4th overall.

If you don't know the end of this story, let's just just say that the phrase, "Dude, where's ma kar?" comes to mind.

We did end up making the right choice in 2018 to keep the pick, but if Montreal takes Tkachuk, then the lottery balls worked out differently in 2019... yikes...

 

[NyQuil]

My heart says 2026 because the penalty was excessive and maybe the league will realize that, like with NJ.

My head says the NHL doesn't give two shits about Ottawa and we might as well get it over with in 2025.

We saw with San Jose what can happen with a draft pick if the season doesn't go your way.

 

[Crosside]

Yes, it was discussed at one point how the league relented and agreed to a 3-year window as a consolation. Originally, they wanted the 2024 pick. This was prior to the punishment being announced. You posted a link to the press release when the punishment was announced.

I will try to find the radio hit/press conference source for that.

Andlauer has been very candid that he doesn't expect the NHL to relent, and while Staios as of this month threw cold water on that as well. I don't know why people still cling to it as an expectation. We already got off easy when you consider what happened to Arizona, which is likely the closest apples to apples comparison. The New Jersey thing was a decade or so ago, and while they did have an ownership change, cap circumvention was rampant with nobody else punished.

Could be a possibilitie

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Depends how far we go here

Missing the playoffs next year is a very real possibility.

So I would give up this years

 

[GCK]

Give up this year’s pick. If we are worse next year the pick is valuable. If we are better next year the pick becomes good TDL currency. It’s a no brainer.

 

[Cosmix]

The 2025 pick is more valuable than the 2026 pick due to the net present time value of an earlier pick; we get a prospect sooner who could become an NHL player sooner. We could use the 2025 pick to trade for a current NHL player that would help the team during our next few years when we have a competitive team.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Depends how far we go here

Missing the playoffs next year is a very real possibility.

So I would give up this years

This is what people need to think about.

Do I hope we have turned the corner? Yes. But every year, you can name a good team that misses the playoffs. It's the nature of the beast when only half the league gets in. There aren't 16 terrible teams.

Giving up the 2026 pick goes against everything Staios has done or preached. They want less chaos. The biggest chaos move possible is to open the team to the narrative where every loss is viewed from the context of "did the Sens give up a chance at McKenna for a late 1st?".

If they had until their pick on the floor to choose, I would think that there might be a chance they keep it. If it's 19th, a player they view as a top 10 talent could be on the board. But they have to give the pick up within 24 hours of the draft lottery concluding. So there won't be that temptation.

Like I suggested in other posts, I think it's a reasonable assumption to think that they also could trade back into the 1st with their protected 2026 pick. If they absolutely need a late 1st, that seems like the smarter option. Of course, it is not guaranteed that they find a dance partner, but with multiple teams owning multiple picks, and the willingness teams seem to have to move their late 2025 picks, it seems like a reasonable gamble to assume they can trade back in if they wish to do so.

 

[Senator Stanley]

The 2025 pick is more valuable than the 2026 pick due to the net present time value of an earlier pick; we get a prospect sooner who could become an NHL player sooner. We could use the 2025 pick to trade for a current NHL player that would help the team during our next few years when we have a competitive team.

Prospects do not operate like money, though. If 2026 is a better draft class, the 20th OA pick in 2026 should be a better prospect than the 20 OA pick in 2025, and could very well reach the NHL at the same time or sooner.

And if they are really concerned about proximity to the NHL, there are ways to put the thumb on the scale a bit with how they approach 2026.

Unless our scouts really like the 2025 class through to our likely pick (e.g. they have 20 guys they love, and barring a deep playoff run we'll be picking around 18th), to me it's a pretty easy decision - you give up 2025.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

If we go far and we are sure the league won’t change the punishment, I change my vote to 2025

 

[StoicSensFan]

I say 2025 unless someone becomes available this summer that makes the team better and the 1st is the trading chip.