Which 1st Rounder to Forfeit?

[Boud]

Now that the season is coming to a close, our good friend steady Steve Staios will have a big decision to make in the early stages of the offseason. Credit where credit is due, we couldn’t have gotten here without Pierre Dorion.

Which first rounder should the Sens give away as a result of the botched Dadonov trade?

Things to consider:

- The Sens pick this year should be around 18-20 depending on the results of the last 5 games, and playoff results.

- The 2026 draft is widely considered a better draft than 2025. A first in 2026 might have better value in a trade (if it ever came to that).

- A player drafted this offseason is more likely to play for the team during this team’s contention window, but would still be 2-3 years away in a best case scenario.

- The 2026 pick is likely to be in the same range as this year’s pick (Let’s say possibly between 17-25).

- Could there be a chance that the penalty is revised by Bettman if the team only forfeits the 2026 pick? This may be a long shot but I wonder if it could impact the decision.

What would you do?

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

2026 1st

The team will be better next year, and the pick will be in the 23-26 range. We need some talent in our pool immediately, after only one first round pick in the last 3 years. And Gary will cut us some slack and lessen the punishment.

 

[ijif]

2026 1st

The team will be better next year, and the pick will be in the 23-26 range. We need some talent in our pool immediately, after only one first round pick in the last 3 years. And Gary will cut us some slack and lessen the punishment.

You don't know the team will be better next year. Using the pick this year opens the team up to massive risk, and the downside of not taking the pick this year is minimal.

 

[Hale The Villain]

2026 1st

The team will be better next year, and the pick will be in the 23-26 range. We need some talent in our pool immediately, after only one first round pick in the last 3 years. And Gary will cut us some slack and lessen the punishment.

A year ago the Rangers won the Presidents Trophy, now they are about to miss the playoffs.

Bruins went from 7th best team in the league to last in the East.

Can't just assume we're going to finish in a better spot next season.

Shit happens. A few injuries to key players and we could end up giving up a higher pick in a better draft.

 

[Sensators]

2025. Team isn't good enough to think we will always be in the playoffs. Worse draft. Easy choice.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

A year ago the Rangers won the Presidents Trophy, now they are about to miss the playoffs.

Bruins went from 7th best team in the league to last in the East.

Can't just assume we're going to finish in a better spot next season.

Shit happens. A few injuries to key players and we could end up giving up a higher pick in a better draft.

We can’t assume, but we’re also in a much different position than teams like the Rangers and Bruins, who have older cores and have peaked.

We need young talent coming in, and we only have Yakemchuk because we traded our 2022 and 2023 picks. We have one of the worst prospect pools in the league and need to get it deeper.

 

[DrEasy]

A year ago the Rangers won the Presidents Trophy, now they are about to miss the playoffs.

Bruins went from 7th best team in the league to last in the East.

Can't just assume we're going to finish in a better spot next season.

Shit happens. A few injuries to key players and we could end up giving up a higher pick in a better draft.

Exactly. Paraphrasing, the team got to where they are with a relatively healthy roster all year. Even counting on further improvements internally and externally by the GM, the ceiling for this team next year isn't as high as the floor is low.

 

[ottawagm]

2025 - This draft isn't great and we know where the pick will be. Keep 2026 as protection or a deadline trade asset if we're ready for a cup run.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Ya you forfeit 2025 unless the team seriously thinks bettman will pardon the penalty than the path is to delay. Would suck to roll the tankathon next season after this year but anything can happen. Hopefully we continue to progress.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Exactly. Paraphrasing, the team got to where they are with a relatively healthy roster all year. Even counting on further improvements internally and externally by the GM, the ceiling for this team next year isn't as high as the floor is low.

We suffered less major injuries than the likes of CBJ and Vancouver, yes. But we were absolutely hit harder than teams like Montreal, Rangers, and Red Wings.

 

[Boud]

Interesting results so far. Most people are saying we should forfeit this season and keep the pick in a better draft.

Many are not confident that the team will do as good next season, potentially missing the playoffs. Others think the team will do better next season.

I think the team has a good chance to be better next season or at least more consistent. I think individual players have a set role on the team now which we had not necessarily seen in the past. There will be an understanding of system’s from day 1 from the players which will be a big change from this year. There will also be a level of comfort from guys like Ullmark, Amadio, Perron, Cozens, Zetterlund and Jensen right off the hop. Sanderson has been much better in the 2nd half of the season, I would expect him to have this level of play from the start of next season. Stutzle has room to improve. Cozens has room to improve. Making the playoffs this season should be a confidence booster.

Merilainen will come in and back-up Ullmark. That could stabilize the back-up position although Forsberg has pretty good numbers for a backup.

Staios has my confidence in filling the holes on the roster. I think we need a 4th line center. A RHD and a top 6 forward (Giroux replacement potentially).

Tampa, Florida, Toronto should still be very good. I could see Montreal adding in the offseason to their group and I could see Buffalo and Detroit taking steps as well. I think there is reason to be weary.

I think I would be forfeiting the 2025 pick as well all things considered.

 

[Silky Johnson]

For me it all comes down to Staios & Andlauers belief regarding the chances that Bettman rescinds the penalty. Its not without precedent and they will have the best feel for it after talking to Bettman directly.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

For people who think we should give up the 2026 pick, wouldn't it make more sense to give up the 2025 pick and then shop the 2026 pick with protection to get back into the 2025 draft?

They have to give up the pick within 24 hours of the draft lottery. They aren't allowed to wait to see who falls. There are multiple teams with 2-3 picks in the first round this year. Philadelphia, Nashville, Chicago, San Jose, etc. Wouldn't it make more sense to trade back into the draft because we can protect out 2026 pick? If we give up the 2026 pick to the league, there is no protection if it ends up as a lottery pick.

We should be better next year, but should doesn't matter in a league with this much parity. Some good teams miss the playoffs every year.

 

[BradyTkachucky]

I’d lean toward giving up the 2025 pick. It’s likely in the 18–20 range, and while that still has value, it’s a known quantity compared to the uncertainty of future drafts.

Holding onto the 2026 pick makes sense if that draft is stronger and could offer more trade value or a better prospect. Plus, if the Sens continue to improve, that 2026 pick could end up being later in the round anyway. Better to rip the Band-Aid off now and move forward with a clean slate.

 

[bert]

2025 winning is absolutely mind boggling. Already explained it in another thread. But the basics of it is Ottawa gets an extra year to fight for it. Barring major injuries they will be a better team next season due to natural progression and Staios having another offseason to make them better. In which he undeniably has. Third they need infusion of talent to match up and keep this core going sooner rather than later.

 

[bert]

Now that the season is coming to a close, our good friend steady Steve Staios will have a big decision to make in the early stages of the offseason. Credit where credit is due, we couldn’t have gotten here without Pierre Dorion.

Which first rounder should the Sens give away as a result of the botched Dadonov trade?

Things to consider:

- The Sens pick this year should be around 18-20 depending on the results of the last 5 games, and playoff results.

- The 2026 draft is widely considered a better draft than 2025. A first in 2026 might have better value in a trade (if it ever came to that).

- A player drafted this offseason is more likely to play for the team during this team’s contention window, but would still be 2-3 years away in a best case scenario.

- The 2026 pick is likely to be in the same range as this year’s pick (Let’s say possibly between 17-25).

- Could there be a chance that the penalty is revised by Bettman if the team only forfeits the 2026 pick? This may be a long shot but I wonder if it could impact the decision.

What would you do?

With this being a variable the rest doesn't even matter.

 

[DuncanMacpherson]

The risk/reward factor makes it an easy choice to forfeit 25. Though wait until the last day of the deadline to choose and keep pushing for Bettman to rescind the penalty

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

2025, purely because this seems to be a very weak year for prospects. We're not getting a stud or even a nearly-guaranteed NHL caliber prospect in the 18-20 range in 2025. #20 in 2025 could be a worse prospect than #30 in 2026....at least it sure feels that way the way some draft hounds are talking. So even if we do a lot better next year, we may still get a better kid with a lower pick. The quirks of the draft, especially at depth levels.

Plus, we take our punishment and get it over with. Officially close that chapter of Sens history.

 

[OmniSens]

Neither. It's just dumb that we have to.

 

[BigRig4]

You gotta forfeit this year. We’re a few unlucky injuries away from a lottery pick. Wouldn’t be good to have that hanging over. Look at NJD a few years ago getting #2 despite being a playoff team most years. Just don’t even risk it.

 

[Alex1234]

2026 draft >>>2025 draft supposedly
So yeah get it over with

 

[c_mak]

I also think Neither. I want to see this grieved/fought/protested. I think the conditions that Ottawa had to operate under were challenging. I want to see this reviewed. Ottawa got hosed on the Pinto thing and I am tired of this franchise being a whipping boy

 

[OUT HOUSE]

If there's no indication that the penalty will be lessened, 100% forfeit the 2025 pick.

 

[Psycroptic86]

Having to choose, I would go with the 2025 pick and delay for as long as possible.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

2025 .. I'd say unless someone unexpected drops but with our scouting staff .. I expect they would go with someone else more off the board anyway.