Which 1st Rounder to Forfeit?

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I don't like this move, unless they have some sort of assurance that our first round pick next year is safe.

At the very least, give up the pick this year and try to trade back into the 2025 draft with the 2026 pick. That way, they can have it protected. There are lots of teams with multiple picks in the 21 range. I'd imagine with the 2026 draft being stronger, someone would bite.

 

[Micklebot]

I can live with keeping the 21st pick and using it on a high upside skill player, even if giving up an unprotected 1st in a better draft next year is a massive risk, but the problem is that we won't select a skilled player because WE DON'T HAVE GOOD SCOUTS.

I understand Staios is a nice guy and doesn't like to fire people, but my god man I don't know how much more you need to see.

Incredibly disappointing to hear him say that. The scouting staff is the biggest problem in this organization and they'll destroy all his good work if kept in place.

What do you think the odds are of getting an impact player at 21 really is though? I mean, sure you could hit gold and draft the next Robertson, but I don't think that's a reasonable expectation even if your scouts are fantastic,

The most likely scenario is you miss at that stage of the draft, you're literally under 50% odds of that a pick at ~21 will play over 200 games. But if you do manage to be in that 45% of picks that pan out and play 200+, it's far more likely it will be an olli maataa or a Kapanen, Laughton or god forbid a a Yamamoto than a Robertson. We could certainly use a Maatta Kapanen or Laughton, but we can't afford to draft a Yamamoto, or miss out completely, so imo, if you can use the pick to get a guy that will stick around for ~5 years at the level of a Maata or Kapanen, you'd have to consider it. Trading off the potential of a Robertson, to mitigate the far greater risk of a Yamamoto.

When you're a contender without a lot of holes in the lineup, you can take more risks imo. And when you're a bottom feeder expecting to suck for the foreseeable future, you can also take some risks. But we're in a delicate position where a miss is a big deal. We spent all our rounds, this one needs to count.

 

[bicboi64]

The only positive I see for selecting a prospect with this years pick is we add something to our pathetic pipeline. We have a bottom 5 pipeline with only Yakemchuk being anyone of high potential. Whomever we pick (unless we go full Tyler Boucher), might be in a position to make some noise in camp when Giroux and Perron are out of the picture.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I know you're joking but yes: Elite Prospects - NHL Draft Center

Don Boyd never drafted a player in the top 2 rounds with less PIMs than GP in his tenure as head scout in Columbus, and he just happened to take the guys with the most PIMs with our top picks last year in Yakemchuk and Eliasson, so it's legitimately something we should be looking at when examining potential Sens picks.

It’s actually kind of funny

 

[Senator Stanley]

They could trade our pick to Vegas for a B prospect and our pick next year ?
or formulate a trade to get a prospect and retain our pick next year. Not sure what it would look like

There is no connection to Vegas. We either have our pick in 2025 or 2026. If we choose to have the pick in 2025, it's forfeited in 2026.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

They should let us keep the pick but as an alternate punishment we should have to re-hire Pierre Dorion.

 

[bicboi64]

They should let us keep the pick but as an alternate punishment we should have to re-hire Pierre Dorion.

Might as well have us forfeit another couple first round picks. Would be less disasterous than rehiring Dorion who'd made the team awful in other ways with crap signings or trades

 

[Hale The Villain]

What do you think the odds are of getting an impact player at 21 really is though? I mean, sure you could hit gold and draft the next Robertson, but I don't think that's a reasonable expectation even if your scouts are fantastic,

The most likely scenario is you miss at that stage of the draft, you're literally under 50% odds of that a pick at ~21 will play over 200 games. But if you do manage to be in that 45% of picks that pan out and play 200+, it's far more likely it will be an olli maataa or a Kapanen, Laughton or god forbid a a Yamamoto than a Robertson. We could certainly use a Maatta Kapanen or Laughton, but we can't afford to draft a Yamamoto, or miss out completely, so imo, if you can use the pick to get a guy that will stick around for ~5 years at the level of a Maata or Kapanen, you'd have to consider it. Trading off the potential of a Robertson, to mitigate the far greater risk of a Yamamoto.

When you're a contender without a lot of holes in the lineup, you can take more risks imo. And when you're a bottom feeder expecting to suck for the foreseeable future, you can also take some risks. But we're in a delicate position where a miss is a big deal. We spent all our rounds, this one needs to count.

Not high, which is why we really should be giving up the 1st this year to protect against the downside risk of missing the playoffs in 2026 and giving up a top 15 pick in a better draft, where you can reasonably expect to select a future impact player. That's the main reason why I think we should be surrending the pick this year.

I don't see any Robertsons (big high skill high IQ players with skating issues) available this year. I was super high on him in 2017 and wanted him with our pick, but the Sens scouts prioritized safety and projectability and took Bowers.

Having said this, if Staios decides to keep the pick, my hope would be that either Kindel or Reshny fall to 21 and we actually decide to select a player that has the potential to be a difference maker, even if they aren't easy to project as bottom 6 guys.

I'm particularly high on Kindel, reminds me a lot of Giroux. Elite level IQ. Could be a massive steal.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

They should let us keep the pick but as an alternate punishment we should have to re-hire Pierre Dorion.

NGL Dorion was a good scout in the days, so I'm all for it if Dorion is scout only.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

NGL Dorion was a good scout in the days, so I'm all for it if Dorion is scout only.

He has to run the show. Every choice Staios makes has to go through him. He also gets final say on all CTC concession offerings.

 

[RyCam]

They should let us keep the pick but as an alternate punishment we should have to re-hire Pierre Dorion.

As long as they don't specify for which position, I'm sure he'd be a competent zamboni driver.

 

[Masked]

He has to run the show. Every choice Staios makes has to go through him. He also gets final say on all CTC concession offerings.

Have you recently acquired an ownership stake in Gabriel Pizza?

 

[PlayOn]

The Sens have been pretty vocal about playoff hockey and how it’s played along the boards, in tight spaces etc so PIM jokes aside, I think if a player doesn’t project well in those areas, we simply won’t draft them.

 

[Hotsam Batcho]

I'd like for the Sens to hire Dorion just to fire him immediately after.

One of the worst GMs in nhl history.

 

[Micklebot]

Not high, which is why we really should be giving up the 1st this year to protect against the downside risk of missing the playoffs in 2026 and giving up a top 15 pick in a better draft, where you can reasonably expect to select a future impact player. That's the main reason why I think we should be surrending the pick this year.

I don't see any Robertsons (big high skill high IQ players with skating issues) available this year. I was super high on him in 2017 and wanted him with our pick, but the Sens scouts prioritized safety and projectability and took Bowers.

Having said this, if Staios decides to keep the pick, my hope would be that either Kindel or Reshny fall to 21 and we actually decide to select a player that has the potential to be a difference maker, even if they aren't easy to project as bottom 6 guys.

I'm particularly high on Kindel, reminds me a lot of Giroux. Elite level IQ. Could be a massive steal.

Ya I mostly agree although full disclosure, brain fart on my end, I was thinking Johnston not Robertson since the former was a ~21 pick,

If we keep this year's pick, I kind of hope we trade it, I'm not as up to date on this year's crop but my understanding is it is a bit of a weaker cohort, so if we can use it to get a somewhat proven piece from a vulnerable team that would be ideal, kind of how StL got Broberg and Holloway from EDM except we'd do it via trade. Not sure if there's a parallel target though, maybe Issac Howard?

 

[Golden_Jet]

People point to what he did for New Jersey as evidence that he might do the same for Ottawa. I wonder if that actually works against Ottawa.

If you're Bettman, you want teams to take the threat of your punishment seriously. He's already let New Jersey off the hook, but he can explain that away as an exceptional case. If he lets Ottawa off the hook, too, it's establishing a clear precedent for other owners that Bettman's punishments are negotiable. I think he'd rather stand firm on Ottawa, even if it looks hypocritical to the Sens organization, than put himself in a position where every team points to New Jersey and Ottawa and says "well now you have to go easy on us".

Well both NJ and Ottawa got new owners, and happened under the previous regime.
So if there is another punished team., chances are they are the same ownership group. So don’t think need to worry about being hypocritical

 

[Loach]

Not high, which is why we really should be giving up the 1st this year to protect against the downside risk of missing the playoffs in 2026 and giving up a top 15 pick in a better draft, where you can reasonably expect to select a future impact player. That's the main reason why I think we should be surrending the pick this year.

I don't see any Robertsons (big high skill high IQ players with skating issues) available this year. I was super high on him in 2017 and wanted him with our pick, but the Sens scouts prioritized safety and projectability and took Bowers.

Having said this, if Staios decides to keep the pick, my hope would be that either Kindel or Reshny fall to 21 and we actually decide to select a player that has the potential to be a difference maker, even if they aren't easy to project as bottom 6 guys.

I'm particularly high on Kindel, reminds me a lot of Giroux. Elite level IQ. Could be a massive steal.

When do scouts start evaluating for a draft? Is it 3-4 years ahead that they start a file on a kid? Dorion was running shit for 7 years right? Was the staff told to look for certain player types, in certain regions? "Find players like this, from these spots." If Staios has a different vision, how long would it take for the scouts to update the files they have and alter the system going forward? Could last years draft be a leftover from Dorion Era scouting because it takes time to put in a new system? What difference does the new analytics department have on drafting?

I just hit you with all the questions and your name is Hale...not Google. Sorry. If any of the other scouting people would like to hop in, please do. I feel shame now.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

If they are keeping the pick, they must have some sort of assurance about the punishment being lowered.

I still think it's risky because when the amount of parity in the league, good teams sometimes finish with lottery picks.

 

[PlayOn]

Ottawa Senators 'highly likely' to keep first-round pick in NHL draft

It will be business as usual when the Ottawa Senators gather for their annual scouting meetings in two weeks.

ottawacitizen.com

Garrioch again suggesting the Sens are doing this in the hopes that the punishment is lowered or removed.

There’s gotta be something to it, I can’t imagine they keep putting this out there if there’s no actual possibility of it happening.

 

[Hale The Villain]

When do scouts start evaluating for a draft? Is it 3-4 years ahead that they start a file on a kid? Dorion was running shit for 7 years right? Was the staff told to look for certain player types, in certain regions? "Find players like this, from these spots." If Staios has a different vision, how long would it take for the scouts to update the files they have and alter the system going forward? Could last years draft be a leftover from Dorion Era scouting because it takes time to put in a new system? What difference does the new analytics department have on drafting?

I just hit you with all the questions and your name is Hale...not Google. Sorry. If any of the other scouting people would like to hop in, please do. I feel shame now.

I don't know how early they start a file on a kid, but certainly most of the emphasis will be put on their 16 (draft-1), 17 (draft year) and 18 year old seasons (draft year in the case of late-birthdays).

Undoubtedly Dorion/Mann told the scouts to focus more on players that fit the mold they were looking for, which were big, fast, tough players.

Staios could come in and tell the scouts to shift their emphasis to look more for skill and smarts, but based on what we've seen thus far I don't think that has happened.