Where's the summertime "rank/order our prospects" thread?!

[Sol]

Going which direction? I feel like most prospects writers/rankings consistently mention that goaltending is our pool’s only weak area (Pronman, Wheeler, Elite Prospects, etc.).

I mean, Yannetti admitted we were trying to trade back into the first round last year to get Wallstedt. We haven’t drafted a goalie in the 1st round since Bernier, so that says a lot about how our management team feels about our goaltending depth. I think if they felt better about it they’d have just continued picking goalies in the later rounds and trusting internal development/pro scouting. At this point I feel more confident that we’ll acquire another reclamation project like Campbell or Kuemper rather than one of our drafted goalies reaching NHL starter status (which honestly might just be a better strategy given that we have more data on those guys as more mature goalies).

Absolutely. Our goaltending is very weak and there’s no talent down there. Petersen is a shot in the dark and he hasn’t panned out to expectations whatsoever. You’d have to be heavily biased to think otherwise.

I am going to have to disagree here for a superabundance of reasons:

There are people who think the earth is flat
You would feel differently if you had read the Covid threads here
Jefe' once told El Guapo that he had a plethora of piñatas without even knowing what a plethora is
People watch The Kardashians and buy their products
Kevin Federline is somehow in the news again
People still listen to The Grateful Dead

I think the worst offender on this list is that people still listen to the Grateful Dead. Such overrated trash.

 

[All The Kings Men]

I mean the conversations that rank guys like Parik and Ingham ahead of Villalta.

Parik is currently without a contract and Ingham is clearly behind Villalta on the depth chart.

I understand that these are hypothetical rankins of potential ceilings but I just keep seeing and hearing the exact same conversations about these guys and I just wonder where on earth the evidence is coming from.

Not at all contesting the notion that the goaltending depth is thin... but then I'm not sure the New Jersey Devils really had a bunch of solid goaltending prospects while Martin Brodeur was still in the league.

 

[All The Kings Men]

I am going to have to disagree here for a superabundance of reasons:

There are people who think the earth is flat
You would feel differently if you had read the Covid threads here
Jefe' once told El Guapo that he had a plethora of piñatas without even knowing what a plethora is
People watch The Kardashians and buy their products
Kevin Federline is somehow in the news again
People still listen to The Grateful Dead

Funny and sadly very accurate.

Which, as overly dramatic as it may sound, is part of the reason I wind up getting annoyed at some of these conversations.

Misinformation is misinformation.

 

[Lt Dan]

Funny and sadly very accurate.

Which, as overly dramatic as it may sound, is part of the reason I wind up getting annoyed at some of these conversations.

Misinformation is misinformation.

Indeed my friend. The internet is more frustrating than the East LA interchange at rush hour

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I mean the conversations that rank guys like Parik and Ingham ahead of Villalta.

Parik is currently without a contract and Ingham is clearly behind Villalta on the depth chart.

I understand that these are hypothetical rankins of potential ceilings but I just keep seeing and hearing the exact same conversations about these guys and I just wonder where on earth the evidence is coming from.

Not at all contesting the notion that the goaltending depth is thin... but then I'm not sure the New Jersey Devils really had a bunch of solid goaltending prospects while Martin Brodeur was still in the league.

Because it's a potential ranking, not a current depth chart ranking. Obviously the org has Villalta on top right now for a variety of reasons including age and seniority.

But frankly if anyone have Villalta on their chart of anyone with any NHL future, I"m perfectly comfortable being absolutely wrong. One of our only prospects I have at a .000001% chance of being a good NHL player.

 

[All The Kings Men]

Because it's a potential ranking, not a current depth chart ranking. Obviously the org has Villalta on top right now for a variety of reasons including age and seniority.

But frankly if anyone have Villalta on their chart of anyone with any NHL future, I"m perfectly comfortable being absolutely wrong. One of our only prospects I have at a .000001% chance of being a good NHL player.

I get it and I'm certainly not in the "well the conventional wisdom says" camp

BUT AT SOME POINT

The water carrying I see some people doing for guys that have no contract and no sample size to speak of is just confusing.

I am including pundits and podcasters in this category. Being passionate is fun, these conversations are fun... I'm just baffled by the complete lack of reasonable arguments to support some of the takes.

It winds up being "I saw dude play in one game and I liked it so therefore my opinion is valid" in the face of "there are teams of people responsible for scouting, evaluating and employing these guys and they all disagree with your take"

doesn't seem to faze anyone in the slightest... including people who should know better or at the very least claim to know better

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Speaking of prospects!

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I get it and I'm certainly not in the "well the conventional wisdom says" camp

BUT AT SOME POINT

The water carrying I see some people doing for guys that have no contract and no sample size to speak of is just confusing.

I am including pundits and podcasters in this category. Being passionate is fun, these conversations are fun... I'm just baffled by the complete lack of reasonable arguments to support some of the takes.

It winds up being "I saw dude play in one game and I liked it so therefore my opinion is valid" in the face of "there are teams of people responsible for scouting, evaluating and employing these guys and they all disagree with your take"

doesn't seem to faze anyone in the slightest... including people who should know better or at the very least claim to know better

Hey I don't disagree really. And I think asking for support/evidence is fair and should be more interesting dialogue/discussion.

But to be fair, file this under the thought that this is a discussion board and it would just be so tiring to have a disclaimer at the beginning or end of every post that says "for entertainment purposes only, I'm not a pro scout, I'm just an extremely opinionated stranger who has seen 4 games of this prospect and have an Al Bundy playing history and I can make these decisions from the safety of my living room rather than the employment-dependent pressure of the draft floor"

 

[All The Kings Men]

Hey I don't disagree really. And I think asking for support/evidence is fair and should be more interesting dialogue/discussion.

But to be fair, file this under the thought that this is a discussion board and it would just be so tiring to have a disclaimer at the beginning or end of every post that says "for entertainment purposes only, I'm not a pro scout, I'm just an extremely opinionated stranger who has seen 4 games of this prospect and have an Al Bundy playing history and I can make these decisions from the safety of my living room rather than the employment-dependent pressure of the draft floor"

I get it.

There are plenty of conversations that are just as wildly off base that don't raise my eyebrows.

This one just makes me curious because I hear certain opinions voiced by certain (multiple) pundits, then I see them repeated enough times that they just because the commonly accepted narrative and then I talk to the people around the office and the organization and I look at the rosters, the reserve lists, the contract statuses, the stats etc etc etc etc

and I just can't help but feel like the driving force behind these opinions is that they're repeated enough times that they just BECOME "the truth" and it drives me nuts.

 

[Lt Dan]

Hey I don't disagree really. And I think asking for support/evidence is fair and should be more interesting dialogue/discussion.

But to be fair, file this under the thought that this is a discussion board and it would just be so tiring to have a disclaimer at the beginning or end of every post that says "for entertainment purposes only, I'm not a pro scout, I'm just an extremely opinionated stranger who has seen 4 games of this prospect and have an Al Bundy playing history and I can make these decisions from the safety of my living room rather than the employment-dependent pressure of the draft floor"

Don't let this distract you from the the fact that in 1966, Al Bundy scored four touchdowns in a single game while playing for the Polk High School Panthers

 

[Choralone]

Germaine to this topic:

From time-to-time I like watching the YouTube channel, "Tasting History with Max Miller." He tries to recreate historical recipes, and talks a bit about some of the historical context around them.

He recently did one entitled "Debunking the Myths of Leonardo da Vinci". He discovers that some of the interesting "facts" about da Vinci aren't facts at all, and discovers the common, surprising provenance of many of them.

 

[Statto]

I'm endlessly fascinated by the fan and pundit conversations surrounding the goaltending prospects.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a larger gulf between the oft repeated talking points and then... you know... reality.

I think win part is that most of us don’t really know how to assess a goaltender properly and I 100% include myself in that. I see potential but I honestly wouldn’t know where they sit compared to other prospects. So the low ranking I give them is representative of my confidence level as opposed to the ‘reality’ because I really don’t know what that is. It probably would have made more sense just to exclude goaltending altogether.

NB: I left Villalta off my list as he’s no longer on his ELC.

 

[mysterman2]

my thoughts on Vilalta....

Im not sure hes even an AHL goalie to be honest. He would a championship in juniors but while he ranked high in wins the save% and GAA wasnt amung league leaders. I think hes the poor mans Chris Osgood. Osgood was good enough to get the job done on stacked teams and was just good enough in all critical areas. Vilalta is one notch below Osgood in all critical areas. That said- shocked to see last season he finished with a .903 save.

Reign goaltending was brutal last season.

Hes got a great look though...if I was in my 20s and starting a band I would totally want him as a keyboard player or drummer.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'm sorry, I don't care who you are, this is a pathetic statline from teens till now.

Yet look at those team records. He was on a team that finished with EIGHT TIMES as many wins as losses and posted under .910. The guy hasn't been over .900 since 2019. and his BEST playoff line was under 900 and it's only gotten worse since.

This isn't the case of a bad year or numbers not translating across leagues or bad teams or whatever, this is a guy who has a history of non-performance and EVERY level and its' mind blowing how much rope he's gotten his whole career.

Believe me I'd LOVE to know what the pros are seeing that I'm not because the eye test is junk that matches the stats. Because best I can come up with otherwise is Jedi prophecy.

 

[Johnny Utah]

I think Grans is an emerging prospect.

Roy, Walker better look out - HG is 6'-3", 205 lbs and had 24 points last year in the AHL as a 19/20 year old.

If he shot left, he would be on the Kings likely now over Bjornfot.

Doughty, Anderson and Durzi aren't going anywhere for a few years; I have to imagine Spence and Grans step in eventually here with those three.

 

[All The Kings Men]

I'm sorry, I don't care who you are, this is a pathetic statline from teens till now.

View attachment 576761

Yet look at those team records. He was on a team that finished with EIGHT TIMES as many wins as losses and posted under .910. The guy hasn't been over .900 since 2019. and his BEST playoff line was under 900 and it's only gotten worse since.

This isn't the case of a bad year or numbers not translating across leagues or bad teams or whatever, this is a guy who has a history of non-performance and EVERY level and its' mind blowing how much rope he's gotten his whole career.

Believe me I'd LOVE to know what the pros are seeing that I'm not because the eye test is junk that matches the stats. Because best I can come up with otherwise is Jedi prophecy.

OK but I'm not defending him as a future hall of famer

I'm asking why some fans, pundits, content creators etc hold other guys in high esteem when they cant supplant this guy that youre thorougly convinced is a bum.

Like if Villalta is that bad and he's the one playing all the minutes... what does that say about the dudes without contracts or spinning wheels in the ECHL and USHL?

The goaltending department just has no idea what they're doing? At all?

That's my confusion.

The absolute confidence some people have that a dude with no contract, a 24 year old 5 year NCAA goalie and a 30 game ECHL vet are routinely listed as being "clearly" above Villalta on the "prospect ranking" or "goalie depth chart" based on.... a vibe? What?

A couple games at a prospect showcase?

I don't get it.

 

[Sparky206]

Its not so much the faith they have in the others, they just have 0 faith in Villalta. Hes just never got that bad goal out of his game. For every good save theres the unscreened shot from the blue line that squeaks 7 hole to give the opponent a 1-0 lead when the shots are 17-5. Mikey Anderson could score on him.

 

[Herby]

Age is still the #1 thing when it comes to evaluating these guys, followed by play at high levels of hockey. That is why these prospect lists are so tough to string together if you are still considering 22-23 year olds as prospects and 19-20 year olds as graduated.

I'd rather just rank everyone who is still considered a young player who may still have some upside. A decent starting point is anyone drafted after Blake became GM. That leaves 1999 birth years and later.

Factoring in age, proven production and ceiling

1. Kaliyev
2. Byfield
3. Clark
------------Faber would be here
4. M. Anderson
5. Spence
6. Bjornfot
7. Kupari
8. Turcotte
9. Grans
10. Fagemo
11. Vilardi
12. Chromiak
13. Thomas
14. Simontaivel
15. Nouisianen
16. Hughes
17. Pinelli
18. JAD

It's not a terrible young group by any stretch, there is a very good amount of quality depth, but I think certainly we have seen the arrow trend down on some important picks, while some lower picks have risen up. Also losing a guy like Faber who is going to be a lockdown defensive d-man for the next 15 years is tough, also losing the #1, which probably would fall somewhere around Spence/Anderson in the rankings hurts the overall list, but you have to give up something to get a guy like Fialia. We weren't getting Fiala for Turcotte and Vilardi or Grans and Fagemo.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

OK but I'm not defending him as a future hall of famer

I'm asking why some fans, pundits, content creators etc hold other guys in high esteem when they cant supplant this guy that youre thorougly convinced is a bum.

Like if Villalta is that bad and he's the one playing all the minutes... what does that say about the dudes without contracts or spinning wheels in the ECHL and USHL?

The goaltending department just has no idea what they're doing? At all?

That's my confusion.

The absolute confidence some people have that a dude with no contract, a 24 year old 5 year NCAA goalie and a 30 game ECHL vet are routinely listed as being "clearly" above Villalta on the "prospect ranking" or "goalie depth chart" based on.... a vibe? What?

A couple games at a prospect showcase?

I don't get it.

I can only speak for me. I'm not certain what exactly people are seeing in other prospects. But as SParky says below, in my case at least, it's that my faith in Villalta is so low that Parik could be three kids in a trenchcoat and I'd have him ranked higher.

I could probably make a case for some of them but ultimately as others have said our 'goalie rankings' are probably better off on their own list rather than commingled with the others. And even then they're mostly just based on draft pedigree, performance outcomes paired with extremely limited viewings so should be taken with a grain of salt. None of them are especially highly-ranked though, it's just that MV is the worst of the bunch.

If the goaltending department had big faith in him or any of the others really they wouldn't keep going out and getting vets to support. He's a big enough kid that he can stand on his own now, it speaks volumes to me that they signed Copley after watching Villalta flail hopelessly on yet another powerhouse team yet again. You talk about 'supplanting' villalta but who has had a shot to do so? Just ingham for 5 games as far as I can see and he didn't perform well either. But Villalta has been failing at this for years.

It's not that they don't know what they're doing, but they're not given much to work with, and the franchise clearly knows that given their attempt to trade up for Wallstedt.

Its not so much the faith they have in the others, they just have 0 faith in Villalta. Hes just never got that bad goal out of his game. For every good save theres the unscreened shot from the blue line that squeaks 7 hole to give the opponent a 1-0 lead when the shots are 17-5. Mikey Anderson could score on him.

 

[ClayAikenFan77]

Little scoop for the Kings HF fans. Jared Wright has committed to Denver and will be playing for the Pioneers this season.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

el oh f***ing el on the heels of the previous conversation

Good thing we just keep getting weaker in goal

can hardly blame him though, I'd be pretty miffed getting buried in the ECHL when you have a f***stick like Villalta stinking up the crease.

Blake starting to look really really inept dealing with the goaltending on an organizational level.

 

[All The Kings Men]

My understanding is that Parik's rights still belong to the Kings

but still
*cough*

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Just wait until the Colorado Eagles make Villalta look like a clown, like they typically do.

Check out these numbers Villalta posted versus Colorado this past season:
10.64 GAA .737 SV%
3.98 GAA .852 SV%
3.06 GAA .917 SV% (his only win against them)
8.39 GAA .824 SV%
9.22 GAA .696 SV%

He may be better suited for the ECHL.

 

[Docgonzo]

Just makes Villalta’s signing so stupid. This is a big blunder for a team that’s desperate for a goaltender for the future.

They should’ve let Villalta walk, either run Parik/Ingham in Ontario or let them battle it out in camp and sign a Vet backup.

Disappointed in Blake on this one.

 

[Schrute farms]

Looking like a bad/wasted 3rd round pick. Makes not picking a goalie this past draft a bit perplexing. Even if it was a down year for goalies, it seemed like we needed a mid/late round pick for developmental purposes. Now we are in an absolute must draft mode next year in one of the early rounds. unless we can swing a trade for a young guy -- which might enable us to draft a guy late round next year (still a MUST draft need in 2023).