GDT: Wherein the Hurricanes beat up elderly parliamentarians.

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
49,331
102,073
Right...a game like this against real opponent usually doesnt end well for us. Outshoot the lights out of the other team within the first 10 mins, build a 2-0 lead when it should be 5-0, then run out of gas and play to hold the lead while taking penalties out the wazoo. Thankfully we can afford to do this against this kind of opponent.

I don't think the word "usually" applies to this season. Canes are 24-2-4 when leading after the 1st and are 23-1-5 when leading after the 2nd. Since Thanksgiving, they are 18-1-2 when leading after the 1st period and 21-1-3 when leading after the 2nd.

When this team gets a lead, it doesn't lose often.
 

Lempo

Recovering Future Considerations Truther
Feb 23, 2014
27,714
86,665
Jarvis will score 20 this year. That’s not bad for a young player.
That would be the Schedule A Performance Bonus threshold for goals, good for $212,500 out of his individually agreed max $500k.

Currently he's on pace for getting the $212,5k bonus in categories of:
- top6 forward ToI (5th in aggregate, 6th in per GP)
- top3 forward +/- (1st tied with Aho at +16, Necas trailing them at +10).
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
49,331
102,073
I don't think the word "usually" applies to this season. Canes are 24-2-4 when leading after the 1st and are 23-1-5 when leading after the 2nd. Since Thanksgiving, they are 18-1-2 when leading after the 1st period and 21-1-3 when leading after the 2nd.

When this team gets a lead, it doesn't lose often.
just to add onto this.

Canes have outshot opponents 43 times this season and are 31-8-4: .767 points %
Canes have been outshot/tied in shots 14 times this season and are : .714 points %


Statistically, there's probably no difference in those points % numbers given the sample sizes. Even if there is, the Canes have good outcomewhen outshooting opponents and when not outshooting opponents. For reference, a .714 points % would be the 2nd best points % in the NHL right now and better than the .707 the Canes had last year.
 

surfzone365

Registered User
Jan 13, 2021
3,364
9,293
Ashburn, VA
I don't think the word "usually" applies to this season. Canes are 24-2-4 when leading after the 1st and are 23-1-5 when leading after the 2nd. Since Thanksgiving, they are 18-1-2 when leading after the 1st period and 21-1-3 when leading after the 2nd.

When this team gets a lead, it doesn't lose often.
Indeed we have been better but there is still a reason this fanbase remains uneasy even with a lead. I’d say starting 2019 we were the comeback kings and relished that role more than the lead-holders. That being said, I'm glad long gone are the days of routine playing from behind.
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
49,331
102,073
Indeed we have been better but there is still a reason this fanbase remains uneasy even with a lead. I’d say starting 2019 we were the comeback kings and relished that role more than the lead-holders

The data doesn't really support that though. I think it's because we, as fans, choose to place greater importance on certain events rather than acknowledge how infrequent the events are. Comebacks and losing a game after leading are noteworthy so we dwell on it and remember it, but don't acknowledge how infrequent those events are.

Over the past 3 seasons (including this one) combined:
Canes points % when leading after 1P: .816
Canes points % when leading after 2P: .867
Canes points % when trailing after 1P: .362
Canes points % when trailing after 2P: .222

We have 17 wins out of 195 games played when trailing after the 1st and only 10 when trailing after the 2nd. In fairness, the reason is that we don't trail often so we have less chances to come back. TB has 24 wins when trailing after 1, Florida has 23, EDM, NYR and TOR have 22, etc... Our winning % is top 5 in the NHL when trailing after 1, but we just don't get many chances to come back.

We only have 6 losses and 10 OT losses out of 195 games played when leading after the 1st, and only 2 losses and 11 OTL when leading after 2. Only TBL (3 losses), BOS (5 losses) and STL (5 losses) have fewer losses, but STL had many fewer leads to begin with so it's really TBL and Boston that have fewer.

Looking at this season alone, the Canes have trailed less than any other team in the NHL (when looking at actual time trailing in a game). On the season: 28:46 min/game leading (1st in the NHL), 10:26 min/game trailing (best in the NHL).

The point is that even if we fans have scars from 5 years ago or make certain events more noteworthy, the fact is that the Canes don't have a bunch of comebacks because they don't trail often, and they don't lose a lot of games they take a lead on.
 
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surfzone365

Registered User
Jan 13, 2021
3,364
9,293
Ashburn, VA
The data doesn't really support that though. I think it's because we, as fans, choose to place greater importance on certain events rather than acknowledge how infrequent the events are. Comebacks and losing a game after leading are noteworthy so we dwell on it and remember it, but don't acknowledge how infrequent those events are.

Over the past 3 seasons (including this one) combined:
Canes points % when leading after 1P: .816
Canes points % when leading after 2P: .867
Canes points % when trailing after 1P: .362
Canes points % when trailing after 2P: .222

We have 17 wins out of 195 games played when trailing after the 1st and only 10 when trailing after the 2nd. In fairness, the reason is that we don't trail often so we have less chances to come back. TB has 24 wins when trailing after 1, Florida has 23, EDM, NYR and TOR have 22, etc... Our winning % is top 5 in the NHL when trailing after 1, but we just don't get many chances to come back.

We only have 6 losses and 10 OT losses out of 195 games played when leading after the 1st, and only 2 losses and 11 OTL when leading after 2. Only TBL (3 losses), BOS (5 losses) and STL (5 losses) have fewer losses, but STL had many fewer leads to begin with so it's really TBL and Boston that have fewer.

Looking at this season alone, the Canes have trailed less than any other team in the NHL (when looking at actual time trailing in a game). On the season: 28:46 min/game leading (1st in the NHL), 10:26 min/game trailing (best in the NHL).

The point is that even if we fans have scars from 5 years ago or make certain events more noteworthy, the fact is that the Canes don't have a bunch of comebacks because they don't trail often, and they don't lose a lot of games they take a lead on.
If we put the good mojo to work in April we'll be set.
 

Svechhammer

THIS is hockey?
Jun 8, 2017
25,498
92,979
I don't think the word "usually" applies to this season. Canes are 24-2-4 when leading after the 1st and are 23-1-5 when leading after the 2nd. Since Thanksgiving, they are 18-1-2 when leading after the 1st period and 21-1-3 when leading after the 2nd.

When this team gets a lead, it doesn't lose often.
Can't wait til the inevitable Game 7 3rd period Chokejob this year.
 
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Svechhammer

THIS is hockey?
Jun 8, 2017
25,498
92,979
The data doesn't really support that though. I think it's because we, as fans, choose to place greater importance on certain events rather than acknowledge how infrequent the events are. Comebacks and losing a game after leading are noteworthy so we dwell on it and remember it, but don't acknowledge how infrequent those events are.

Over the past 3 seasons (including this one) combined:
Canes points % when leading after 1P: .816
Canes points % when leading after 2P: .867
Canes points % when trailing after 1P: .362
Canes points % when trailing after 2P: .222

We have 17 wins out of 195 games played when trailing after the 1st and only 10 when trailing after the 2nd. In fairness, the reason is that we don't trail often so we have less chances to come back. TB has 24 wins when trailing after 1, Florida has 23, EDM, NYR and TOR have 22, etc... Our winning % is top 5 in the NHL when trailing after 1, but we just don't get many chances to come back.

We only have 6 losses and 10 OT losses out of 195 games played when leading after the 1st, and only 2 losses and 11 OTL when leading after 2. Only TBL (3 losses), BOS (5 losses) and STL (5 losses) have fewer losses, but STL had many fewer leads to begin with so it's really TBL and Boston that have fewer.

Looking at this season alone, the Canes have trailed less than any other team in the NHL (when looking at actual time trailing in a game). On the season: 28:46 min/game leading (1st in the NHL), 10:26 min/game trailing (best in the NHL).

The point is that even if we fans have scars from 5 years ago or make certain events more noteworthy, the fact is that the Canes don't have a bunch of comebacks because they don't trail often, and they don't lose a lot of games they take a lead on.
Starting last year we've never really felt like we were out of a game when trailing. I feel like we had a string of 2 goal comebacks that almost made it feel routine and now you almost half expect it.

Last night I felt myself relax a bit in the 2nd and 3rd. Like, yeah we weren't playing well but it never felt like the game was getting away from us.

We are a really good team
 

surfzone365

Registered User
Jan 13, 2021
3,364
9,293
Ashburn, VA
Starting last year we've never really felt like we were out of a game when trailing. I feel like we had a string of 2 goal comebacks that almost made it feel routine and now you almost half expect it.

Last night I felt myself relax a bit in the 2nd and 3rd. Like, yeah we weren't playing well but it never felt like the game was getting away from us.

We are a really good team
We are doing what a team of our caliber should be doing in the regular season, which is taking care of business against the lesser teams and winning most of our matches vs the better teams, with the occasional stinker expected on occasion.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
49,331
102,073
Can't wait til the inevitable Game 7 3rd period Chokejob this year.

You say that like it's happened in the past, but it hasn't. Sure, it can happen because we are going to have to play some damn good teams in the playoffs, but:

Last year:
BOS Game 7: Canes Scored 1st goal and Canes won.
NYR Game 7: NYR scored 1st goal and Canes lost.

Two seasons ago:
NSH Game 6: NSH scored 1st, Canes tied in the 1st, Canes won
TBL Game 5: TBL scored 1st and won

Three seasons ago:
Game 3 NYR: NYR scored 1st, Canes won
BOS game 5: Canes scored 1st period, BOS scored 2 in the 2nd, Canes lost

Four seasons ago:
Game 7 WSH: Caps scored 1st, Canes won
Game 4 NYI: NYI scored 1st, Canes won
Game 4 BOS: BOS scored 1st, Boston won
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
49,331
102,073
Starting last year we've never really felt like we were out of a game when trailing. I feel like we had a string of 2 goal comebacks that almost made it feel routine and now you almost half expect it.
Yes, and that's because we have a very good team. All really good teams are never out of a game. Top 5 teams the last 3 seasons in points % when trailing after 1 are TOR, TBL, FLA, COL, CAR, and BOS. All really good teams.

Also, the teams that have trailed the least this season: CAR, BOS, SEA, COL, EDM, TOR (TBL has trailed 9th least).

Last night I felt myself relax a bit in the 2nd and 3rd. Like, yeah we weren't playing well but it never felt like the game was getting away from us.

We are a really good team
Exactly. We win most games when we lead, we don't trail often, and while we don't have a great winning % when trailing, it's still top 5.
 
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Svechhammer

THIS is hockey?
Jun 8, 2017
25,498
92,979
You say that like it's happened in the past, but it hasn't. Sure, it can happen because we are going to have to play some damn good teams in the playoffs, but:

Last year:
BOS Game 7: Canes Scored 1st goal and Canes won.
NYR Game 7: NYR scored 1st goal and Canes lost.

Two seasons ago:
NSH Game 6: NSH scored 1st, Canes tied in the 1st, Canes won
TBL Game 5: TBL scored 1st and won

Three seasons ago:
Game 3 NYR: NYR scored 1st, Canes won
BOS game 5: Canes scored 1st period, BOS scored 2 in the 2nd, Canes lost

Four seasons ago:
Game 7 WSH: Caps scored 1st, Canes won
Game 4 NYI: NYI scored 1st, Canes won
Game 4 BOS: BOS scored 1st, Boston won

Ahh but if there was going to be a team to buck that trend, y'all know it'll be us
 
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surfzone365

Registered User
Jan 13, 2021
3,364
9,293
Ashburn, VA
You say that like it's happened in the past, but it hasn't. Sure, it can happen because we are going to have to play some damn good teams in the playoffs, but:

Last year:
BOS Game 7: Canes Scored 1st goal and Canes won.
NYR Game 7: NYR scored 1st goal and Canes lost.

Two seasons ago:
NSH Game 6: NSH scored 1st, Canes tied in the 1st, Canes won
TBL Game 5: TBL scored 1st and won

Three seasons ago:
Game 3 NYR: NYR scored 1st, Canes won
BOS game 5: Canes scored 1st period, BOS scored 2 in the 2nd, Canes lost

Four seasons ago:
Game 7 WSH: Caps scored 1st, Canes won
Game 4 NYI: NYI scored 1st, Canes won
Game 4 BOS: BOS scored 1st, Boston won
In other words, we’re not the Capitals or Sharks yet 😁
 

surfzone365

Registered User
Jan 13, 2021
3,364
9,293
Ashburn, VA
:laugh:

There's no argument that the Canes need to figure out a way to get over the hump in the playoffs.
I haven’t verbally expressed it yet because I’m an optimist for the most part, but I’m crossing my fingers we don’t become one of those teams that melts away in the playoffs. The Sharks, Caps, and Canucks are teams that stand out in having spectacular regular seasons only to be choking dogs when April/May roll around. I think our team culture with a no-quit guy like Rod at the helm is the best thing for us.
 

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