Where will Dubois play next year?

[CBJfan4evr]

His play relative to his teammates should decide where he plays. How much of a chance he gets, well that is certainly dictated to a certain extent by FO and coaches. "Hard to keep a good man down". time will tell...

 

[EspenK]

Just to clarify, my Q reference was QMJHL, not Quicken.

yeah but i needed the Springfield reference to go with dusty to play off wishing & hoping

 

[major major]

The poll needs a 40 game option.

I think it was Bob Mackenzie who wrote a year ago that teams are actually more concerned these days with the countdown to UFA (which starts at 40 games, I believe) than with the activation of the ELC (10 games).

 

[Cowumbus]

I saw an article where they say Dubois will play in Cbus next year and have a larger impact than Werenski.. That would be cool.

But like I voted, Back to the Q seems the most probable

 

[major major]

I saw an article where they say Dubois will play in Cbus next year and have a larger impact than Werenski.. That would be cool.

But like I voted, Back to the Q seems the most probable

Got a link?

 

[Forepar]

There's two different barriers - The 9 game barrier, which IIRC is what activates the ELC, and the 41 game barrier, which is what activates the countdown to UFA status. I think for our club the 41 game barrier is a bigger deal. We don't mind having to pay a guy on a second or third RFA deal if the ELC expires, those deals are not that much more expensive. The UFA years are more of an issue for this franchise - way more expensive and more of a risk that you just lose the player entirely.

Also depends on the timing of the expected expansion draft AFTER the LV draft. If that 2nd expansion draft occurs in 2018, then under current rules for LV draft, Dubois would be exempt even if he plays with CBJ for full year this year, as he would have two professional years of service and still be automatically exempt. However, if that 2nd expansion draft is not until 2019, my understanding is that the definition of professional season for purposes of the expansion draft are:
- for 18 or 19 yo (age as of 9/15): 10 or more NHL games played.
- for 20+ yo: 1 or more Professional (NHL or AHL) games played.

Of course, I am assuming that the expansion draft rules for draft 2 will be the same as for LV draft, and that expansion draft 2 occurs in 2018 or 2019 (none of which may be accurate). If assumptions are reasonable and 2019 is the more likely year for expansion draft 2, that suggests 9 games with CBJ this year and then to the Q, so that Dubois is automatically exempted from expansion draft for 2019 and CBJ retains ability to protect another player. I think Dubois gets 9 games with CBJ as carrot for going to the Q - he gets NHL exposure for 9 games, he gets a unrealistic shot at sticking, and gets an NHL paycheck for 9 games to fatten his bank account. I know NHL pays on number of days in NHL, not games, but 9 games would be roughly $100-105K, compared to next to zero in the Q (generally stipend only).

The only way I would consider a different scenario is if Dubois absolute blows the doors off in camp and during 1st 9 games, CBJ is 7-1-1 or better after the 9 games, Dubois is major factor in that start, and CBJ then becomes "all in" for 2016-17 season. That wouldn't necessarily be the smart move, but with a starving fanbase and poor results for past 2 years, FO would at least have to consider it. Anything short of that, my 2 cents says then to the Q. But nothing would surprise me.

 

[Crede777]

I think it's folly for the Jackets to consider a potential expansion draft which would be 2+ years away for a team which hasn't even been announced.

Their actions need to be dictated solely by what is best for the team this season and what is best for Dubois' development. They can worry about who to protect later.

 

[Forepar]

But an 18 yr old at C in the NHL is best for his development?

A better fit would be the AHL; he can't play in the AHL by rule. The choices are Q or NHL.
Further complicating the decision is that once sent to the Q, a player may not be recalled to the NHL until after the player's Q season has ended.
Most good teams would tell Dubois to percolate longer in the Q - overpercolate better than rushing. I'm in that camp. I understand why some would disagree.

Correct, the 2nd expansion draft is not announced - but it is coming at some point sooner than later. The expansion fee LV is paying is something the owners would love to have a 2nd helping of, and there are candidates. It also will balance scheduling so it is equal (odd number of games within the division, but the same for each division, with same percentage of teams in each conference making playoffs). The $$$ drive this - it is simply a question of when.

CBJ FO will have more info on the likelihood of when the next expansion draft occurs than any of us. I am not saying the anticipated expansion draft issue is or should be the overriding factor - but it is a factor in roster management. If CBJ is not in serious contention for a playoff spot this year, you certainly would not burn more than 41 games on Dubois or you accelerate a year toward his eligibility for UFA status. If he's only going to get 40 games, I would opt for just 9, to get the ELC to slide a year and also preserve the expansion draft exemption for another year as well. Dubois may be too good for the Q, but it would not hurt his development. The issue may be more whether CBJ is ready for him, not the other way around.

This is where what is best for CBJ "this year" would take a back seat in my book, unless they come out smoking hot. You may think otherwise, and that's where we agree to disagree. Because for the most part we have the same team as last year; young'uns will be better, but are they 25 points better than last year, with or without Dubois? My bet is on 2017-18 season, not this year. With all the factors considered (CBJ's likely spot outside playoff hunt; PLD's further development at C probably better somewhere other than 3rd line of a non-playoff NHL team; extending PLD's first UFA year by a year; sliding PLD's ELC by a year, PLD's possible exemption from potential expansion draft in 2019), the move I would make is 9 games in the NHL, then to the Q. I hope they prove me wrong and start 9-0 and PLD's performance and the record makes it next to impossible to move him to the Q - but I don't expect it and it would take that for me to keep him in the NHL this year beyond 9 games.

 

[Crede777]

But an 18 yr old at C in the NHL is best for his development?

I never said that he should be in the NHL. If it's best for his development to go back to the QMJHL, then that's where he should go. But a potential, unannounced expansion shouldn't register as a concern.

The 2nd expansion draft is not announced - but it is coming at some point sooner than later. The expansion fee LV is paying is something the owners would love to have a 2nd helping of, and there are candidates.

That may be, but the GM's have shown that worrying about who to protect is a minor concern until a year away from the draft. This time last season they weren't worrying about the Las Vegas expansion draft. The approach is that every team is going to lose a pretty good player. The best approach is to accept that and move on to making your team as competitive as possible in the present.

I am not saying the anticipated expansion draft issue is or should be the overriding factor - but it is a factor in roster management.

It will be a factor in about a year or two. Not right now. We have no idea what our roster is going to look like in 3 years. The guys we protect during the Las Vegas expansion may be mostly gone by that point. In fact, if Dubois is eligible and good enough to be protected, I would consider that a win because it means he's developing nicely.

If CBJ are not in serious contention for a playoff spot this year, you certainly would not burn more than 41 games on Dubois or you burn a year off his ELC. If he's only going to get 40 games, I would opt for just 9, and preserve the expansion draft exemption for another year as well.

Again, the only considerations are what is best for Dubois and best for the team right now.

Dubois may be too good for the Q, but it would not hurt his development. The issue may be more whether CBJ are ready for him, not the other way around.

This is where what is best for CBJ "this year" would take a back seat in my book, unless they come out smoking hot. You may think otherwise, and that's where we agree to disagree. Because for the most part we have the same team as last year; young'uns will be better, but are they 25 points better than last year, with or without Dubois? My bet is on 2017-18 season, not this year. I hope they prove me wrong.

You're assuming that what is best for the CBJ this year is to have Dubois play in the NHL. That might not be the case. If Dubois can show that he's better than all but one of our centers, then he certainly deserves a spot on the opening night roster. Getting regular TOI at the NHL level would be fine for his development. The issue comes if he is only getting ~9 minutes a night and/or being scratched.

 

[Forepar]

Good post. I get where you are coming from, just disagree with projections. My responses bolded.

I never said that he should be in the NHL. If it's best for his development to go back to the QMJHL, then that's where he should go. But a potential, unannounced expansion shouldn't register as a concern.



That may be, but the GM's have shown that worrying about who to protect is a minor concern until a year away from the draft. This time last season they weren't worrying about the Las Vegas expansion draft. The approach is that every team is going to lose a pretty good player. The best approach is to accept that and move on to making your team as competitive as possible in the present.


It will be a factor in about a year or two. Not right now. We have no idea what our roster is going to look like in 3 years. The guys we protect during the Las Vegas expansion may be mostly gone by that point. Given the number of younger studs and the number of NMC's the FO threw out, and that CBJ is a year away from competitive imo, the FO needs to be looking 3 years out. Every good franchise does that. In fact, if Dubois is eligible and good enough to be protected, I would consider that a win because it means he's developing nicely. And if he's in the Q this year, and still developing nicely we keep him AND another stud.



Again, the only considerations are what is best for Dubois and best for the team right now. Agree that what is best for Dubois right now is a big consideration. Disagree that what is best for team right now is major consideration on this issue - my view is what is best for team 2-4 years out is more important. I don't like writing that, but I have resigned myself to that.


You're assuming that what is best for the CBJ this year is to have Dubois play in the NHL. No, I'm assuming that CBJ is not competitive this year in terms of playoffs/SC, regardless of whether Dubois is in NHL or the Q. That might not be the case. If Dubois can show that he's better than all but one of our centers, then he certainly deserves a spot on the opening night roster. Not sure he can conclusively show that in 10-15 days of camp with the World Cup going on (part of the roster and HCJT missing) and in 9 games to start the season? Getting regular TOI at the NHL level would be fine for his development. The issue comes if he is only getting ~9 minutes a night and/or being scratched. He will get 3rd line minutes at best with Torts, and not have much scoring chance in that role. He likely will not be on PP. As with most young players, he needs to continue to score, especially as a C, imo. We have enough 2C's.

 

[EspenK]

I think it's folly for the Jackets to consider a potential expansion draft which would be 2+ years away for a team which hasn't even been announced.

Their actions need to be dictated solely by what is best for the team this season and what is best for Dubois' development. They can worry about who to protect later.

And then you'll ***** about the lack of foresight that causes a player to be unprotected. Of course an impending expansion should be considered. To not do so would be wrong, imo.

Good teams aren't built overnight. You have to try to project out 3, 5 years to plan and act correctly. To do otherwise would be to continue the Jackets tradition of chasing their tail trying to get better.

 

[Crede777]

And then you'll ***** about the lack of foresight that causes a player to be unprotected. Of course an impending expansion should be considered. To not do so would be wrong, imo.

Good teams aren't built overnight. You have to try to project out 3, 5 years to plan and act correctly. To do otherwise would be to continue the Jackets tradition of chasing their tail trying to get better.

I can pretty much guarantee if you sat Jarmo down and said "what do you think about a potential expansion draft after Las Vegas?" he would say that the team will cross that bridge if/when they get to it and right now he's just focused on what's best for the team this year and for the player.

I'm not complaining about a lack of foresight with regards to this expansion draft. I doubt I'd complain about the next one. Really the only issue I have is the Clarkson situation but that was stupid even without the expansion draft.

Again, at the end of the day, with the way the expansion drafts are set up now, every team is going to lose a player it doesn't want to lose. That's less about team foresight and more an issue of the league attempting to prop up new franchises when it left the Jackets twisting in the wind for a number of years (yes, I want to see every new franchise have to go through that wringer).

Good post. I get where you are coming from, just disagree with projections. My responses bolded.

You're right in that I don't think the Jackets will rush Dubois simply because the team needs him. Where I think we disagree is how NHL playing time would benefit him. I of course think Dubois should go back to Cape Breton and spend an entire season at center. However, if he can be guaranteed minutes at the NHL level, and if management doesn't think he'd be rushed, then I could see the argument for keeping him up.

 

[Jackets16]

I think it's folly for the Jackets to consider a potential expansion draft which would be 2+ years away for a team which hasn't even been announced.

Their actions need to be dictated solely by what is best for the team this season and what is best for Dubois' development. They can worry about who to protect later.

I completely disagree. It is the same reason MLB teams don't bring up prospects to start a year. You ALWAYS have to be thinking about the future. You would be #*$$ed in a couple of years if we lost a great young player because we played Dubois a little earlier than we had to.

 

[blahblah]

I completely disagree. It is the same reason MLB teams don't bring up prospects to start a year. You ALWAYS have to be thinking about the future. You would be #*$$ed in a couple of years if we lost a great young player because we played Dubois a little earlier than we had to.

I appreciate FUD as much as the next guy; but please pissed is the status quo around here. We'd find a way to be pissed off after winning the Cup.

 

[Crede777]

I completely disagree. It is the same reason MLB teams don't bring up prospects to start a year. You ALWAYS have to be thinking about the future. You would be #*$$ed in a couple of years if we lost a great young player because we played Dubois a little earlier than we had to.

I think they will play him as soon as he's fully ready, potential (unannounced) expansion draft or not.

 

[Jackets16]

I think they will play him as soon as he's fully ready, potential (unannounced) expansion draft or not.

I agree. I am just saying that it is something you have to take into consideration.

 

[mikeyp24]

I wouldn't pass up a good season for expansion exemption. By the time that draft comes around the team will likely have less F to be forced into protecting and still being flexible. I firmly believe PLD spending another year in the Q will hurt him long term. He was already dominating last year as one of the youngest draft eligible players and going back will not progress any talent. You don't leave Sydney Crosby to play high school hockey scoring 5 goals per period in order to not have to protect him 3 years from now. Extreme example but leaving a person in an area of far lessor competition hinders growth. No matter how well he plays there won't matter because the caliber of play in the NHL would stop 90% of what he would have gotten away with in the Q. It's smarter to let the kid grow on the 3rd line surrounded by 2 vets in Hartnell and our captain. Foligno is a player who converted to C after always playing wing before being in the NHL so he can help and Hartnell has brought along the progression of wennberg and Karlson so we know PLD is likely to succeed.

 

[CBJx614]

I wouldn't pass up a good season for expansion exemption. By the time that draft comes around the team will likely have less F to be forced into protecting and still being flexible. I firmly believe PLD spending another year in the Q will hurt him long term. He was already dominating last year as one of the youngest draft eligible players and going back will not progress any talent. You don't leave Sydney Crosby to play high school hockey scoring 5 goals per period in order to not have to protect him 3 years from now. Extreme example but leaving a person in an area of far lessor competition hinders growth. No matter how well he plays there won't matter because the caliber of play in the NHL would stop 90% of what he would have gotten away with in the Q. It's smarter to let the kid grow on the 3rd line surrounded by 2 vets in Hartnell and our captain. Foligno is a player who converted to C after always playing wing before being in the NHL so he can help and Hartnell has brought along the progression of wennberg and Karlson so we know PLD is likely to succeed.

You have this wrong or im misunderstanding.

Foligno played C until he got to the NHL where he made the switch to wing.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

I wouldn't pass up a good season for expansion exemption. By the time that draft comes around the team will likely have less F to be forced into protecting and still being flexible. I firmly believe PLD spending another year in the Q will hurt him long term. He was already dominating last year as one of the youngest draft eligible players and going back will not progress any talent. You don't leave Sydney Crosby to play high school hockey scoring 5 goals per period in order to not have to protect him 3 years from now. Extreme example but leaving a person in an area of far lessor competition hinders growth. No matter how well he plays there won't matter because the caliber of play in the NHL would stop 90% of what he would have gotten away with in the Q. It's smarter to let the kid grow on the 3rd line surrounded by 2 vets in Hartnell and our captain. Foligno is a player who converted to C after always playing wing before being in the NHL so he can help and Hartnell has brought along the progression of wennberg and Karlson so we know PLD is likely to succeed.

I agree. If you took this guy because you believe he had big time impact skills and he has the reputation of being a coach's kid that out works the other guys you need to put him into a position to maximize the challenges, especially when this is not a team that is going to win the Stanley Cup while he learn in juniors.

 

[Old Guy]

My understanding is that DuBois converted to center about midway thru last season. His point production per game increased during that sample set. I didn't dig into how he performed defensively or how his face-off numbers were.

In addition, my understanding of a center is they actually cover more ice (skate further) on each shift, than any other position. Offensive production is important, but not to the exclusion of defensive responsibility, taking draws and his conditioning and recovery.

I saw the video clip showing the scouts saying he "checks all the boxes". But I don't know what that means. Maybe the young man will come to camp and by opening night everyone will be saying "Johansen who". But that is not what I expect.

The cap space and roster slots have been made available for players like Bjorkstrand, Anderson, Milano and Werenski to get long looks and slot in. That would be 4 rookies, without any consideration of either of the goalies. Having a 5th rookie skater among 21 total skaters sounds like inviting trouble. Who sits in the press box and doesn't develop?

I'm not saying a team with 5 rookies could never be a playoff team, but 5 rookies generally says you are picking early again.

 

[CBJx614]

My understanding is that DuBois converted to center about midway thru last season. His point production per game increased during that sample set. I didn't dig into how he performed defensively or how his face-off numbers were.

In addition, my understanding of a center is they actually cover more ice (skate further) on each shift, than any other position. Offensive production is important, but not to the exclusion of defensive responsibility, taking draws and his conditioning and recovery.

I saw the video clip showing the scouts saying he "checks all the boxes". But I don't know what that means. Maybe the young man will come to camp and by opening night everyone will be saying "Johansen who". But that is not what I expect.

The cap space and roster slots have been made available for players like Bjorkstrand, Anderson, Milano and Werenski to get long looks and slot in. That would be 4 rookies, without any consideration of either of the goalies. Having a 5th rookie skater among 21 total skaters sounds like inviting trouble. Who sits in the press box and doesn't develop?

I'm not saying a team with 5 rookies could never be a playoff team, but 5 rookies generally says you are picking early again.

That is correct. Centers are basically rovers who follow the play of the puck. Wingers(defensively) are up near the dmen to keep pressure on them.

 

[major major]

The cap space and roster slots have been made available for players like Bjorkstrand, Anderson, Milano and Werenski to get long looks and slot in. That would be 4 rookies, without any consideration of either of the goalies. Having a 5th rookie skater among 21 total skaters sounds like inviting trouble. Who sits in the press box and doesn't develop?

I'm not saying a team with 5 rookies could never be a playoff team, but 5 rookies generally says you are picking early again.

Milano is not slated to slot in. He hasn't been that good, and when the coaches and FO are surveyed on who they expect to make the team his name does not pop up like the other three you mentioned.

 

[Jackets16]

Milano is not slated to slot in. He hasn't been that good, and when the coaches and FO are surveyed on who they expect to make the team his name does not pop up like the other three you mentioned.

Plus, who cares how many rookies we have. I want talent on our team. Also, I've said this before, but I don't consider most of them rookies after the season (winning the AHL Championship) they just had. That is better experience than playing some NHL games on a bad team, IMO.

 

[major major]

Plus, who cares how many rookies we have. I want talent on our team. Also, I've said this before, but I don't consider most of them rookies after the season (winning the AHL Championship) they just had. That is better experience than playing some NHL games on a bad team, IMO.

I wouldn't go quite that far - perhaps we can say that all rookies are different.

Werenski and Dubois are mature ahead of their years, but they're still teenagers. Bjorkstrand and Anderson are 21 and 22, and they've both long been lauded by their coaches as diligent types of players. Those two I doubt will play like "rookies". Werenski might be he'll bust through on pure talent. Who knows with Dubois.

 

[mikeyp24]

You have this wrong or im misunderstanding.

Foligno played C until he got to the NHL where he made the switch to wing.

I might have flipped it around. I read it here once and saw people talk about it so I may have misremembered. I never watched him before he came to Columbus. But even if that's true foligno knows what it's like to play both positions and can understand what PLD is going through and help that transition and who better to help him then 2 great leaders and veterans.