Where is Rantanen? Who is Rantanen? Why is Rantanen? What is Rantanen?

[Mr Nogatco]

There is a huge difference between cocaine Nuke, and the drug free version.

which one is better?

 

[jalapenoWithAnH]

Not many probably know this in the U.S but when Rantanen played in TPS of the U20 Liiga in FInland he was chosen as the best player of the playoffs receiving the Ville Peltonen award. He has always had that dawg in him.

 

[Troy McClure]

which one is better?

Sober version is a fine but unspecial player. Cocaine Val was a monster.

 

[Bruce Granville]

Sober version is a fine but unspecial player. Cocaine Val was a monster.

Well, Cocaine Bear is his favourite movie and he roots for the bear.
Just sayin‘…

 

[Killahpunk]

Clearly Rantanen has been propped up by playing with the great Granlund.

 

[Praetorian Caps]

 

[Hollowmoon]

Product of Granlund?

 

[pelderhostiga]

Yeah, this is my take.

They had a 7ish year window, won a cup, then burned two years because of a freak injury and Nuke not being able to keep on the level (plus not keeping Kadri). But that didn't mean the build was wrong at the top. Sometimes you have down years in your contention window.

With Nuke back, and Landeskog back, and a good goalie (Blackwood), this year you had a real shot. The 2C was a recurring problem once solved by Kadri and they should have found a way to keep him. But they had all the pieces, and juuuust enough D depth, to continue the real contender window. WITH all three megastars. That's my take. Sure it's top-heavy. But the top is so good that it's a contender build.

With just Nate and Makar, even with Landy and Nuke back, but no prospect pipeline and no strong 2C... it's not looking great. Huge hole where Moose was, and no 2C, and the D looking a bit thin behind Makar and Toews, and no way to address those issues.

This is my take as well.

People can say what they want about DeBoer having Bednar's numbers, but last year I really felt the de-moralizing effect in Colorado when Nichuskin, who was playing the best hockey of his career, betrayed the team at the worst possible time. It was not on Rantanen, it was not on "top-heavyness" and to some extent it was not on the coaching.

I just can't get my head around the idea of trying to go deep in the playoffs by trading away your most efficient playoffs (and especially elimination games) performer. The logic just seems backwards to what other teams are trying to do.

 

[LuGBuG]

Are you talking about Rantanen or Grantenen

 

[jalapenoWithAnH]

I hope DeBoer stops playing Rantanen for +20 minutes. His worst games in playoffs have been in the games he has had over 20min TOI.

G2 vs Col: 26min, 0p, -1
G2 vs Wpg: 21:42min, 0p, -2
G4 vs Wpg: 23:49min, 1p, +1
G5 vs Wpg: 24:58min, 0p, -2
G6 vs Wpg: 24:23min, 0p, 0

=1 p, -4

Rest of the 8 games with less than 20min TOI:

=18p, +5

A clear trend here it seems. We are talking about a 215lbs forward after all.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I hope DeBoer stops playing Rantanen for +20 minutes. His worst games in playoffs have been in the games he has had over 20min TOI.

G2 vs Col: 26min, 0p, -1
G2 vs Wpg: 21:42min, 0p, -2
G4 vs Wpg: 23:49min, 1p, +1
G5 vs Wpg: 24:58min, 0p, -2
G6 vs Wpg: 24:23min, 0p, 0

=1 p, -4

Rest of the 8 games with less than 20min TOI:

=18p, +5

A clear trend here it seems. We are talking about a 215lbs forward after all.

Correlation =/= causation

 

[jalapenoWithAnH]

Correlation =/= causation

Nah, this is the exact point made by some Avs fans when they tried to explain why Rantanen started to look lazy and like a different player in Colorado after 2022. Rantanen's advanced stats worsened after 2022, especially his defence and even strength offense compared to pre 2022. At the same time his ATOI increased to 22 min for all his last three season with the Avs.

It's common sense: you shouldn't run your highest scoring forwards to the ground.

 

[DamonDRW]

Correlation =/= causation

this statement is tiring. I'm doing probability models professionally for 20+ years and each and every time you see data like these, there is strong a reason behind.

 

[ijuka]

Correlation =/= causation

Do you even understand what this means/is referring to?

For example, more people drowning is correlated with more ice cream being sold. So does ice cream cause people to drown? No, but more people buy ice cream during warm days, and more people swim(and drown) during warm days as well. That's correlation without causation. But this is because of both ice cream sales and swimming being dependent on a hidden variable.

Correlation != causation clearly doesn't apply for the ice time - performance metric unless you can hypothesize the actual hidden variable the two features depend upon. The other possibility would be for low performance to cause high ice time, or for high performance to cause low ice time, which by evoking domain expertise, doesn't seem very logical. Otherwise, this is just pseudostatistical mumbo jumbo.

You should instead use the sample size as an argument, which would be perfectly fine for this small of a sample.

 

[BB88]

I hope DeBoer stops playing Rantanen for +20 minutes. His worst games in playoffs have been in the games he has had over 20min TOI.

G2 vs Col: 26min, 0p, -1
G2 vs Wpg: 21:42min, 0p, -2
G4 vs Wpg: 23:49min, 1p, +1
G5 vs Wpg: 24:58min, 0p, -2
G6 vs Wpg: 24:23min, 0p, 0

=1 p, -4

Rest of the 8 games with less than 20min TOI:

=18p, +5

A clear trend here it seems. We are talking about a 215lbs forward after all.

What on earth were you watching last night?

Rantanen was constantly dangerous all game

 

[BB88]

Nah, this is the exact point made by some Avs fans when they tried to explain why Rantanen started to look lazy and like a different player in Colorado after 2022. Rantanen's advanced stats worsened after 2022, especially his defence and even strength offense compared to pre 2022. At the same time his ATOI increased to 22 min for all his last three season with the Avs.

It's common sense: you shouldn't run your highest scoring forwards to the ground.

Again, I’m convinced you didn’t watch game 6

Based on his play he could have easily had a 2-3 point night

 

[Dirty Dog]

I hope DeBoer stops playing Rantanen for +20 minutes. His worst games in playoffs have been in the games he has had over 20min TOI.

G2 vs Col: 26min, 0p, -1
G2 vs Wpg: 21:42min, 0p, -2
G4 vs Wpg: 23:49min, 1p, +1
G5 vs Wpg: 24:58min, 0p, -2
G6 vs Wpg: 24:23min, 0p, 0

=1 p, -4

Rest of the 8 games with less than 20min TOI:

=18p, +5

A clear trend here it seems. We are talking about a 215lbs forward after all.

This doesn’t make sense on a lot of levels. Mainly small sample size and not matching the eye test. But also common sense. What do you think is going on the first 18 minutes of games he ends up playing longer, anticipatory fatigue? He isn’t producing in this first 18 minutes because he knows he’s going to end up playing longer?

 

[jalapenoWithAnH]

This doesn’t make sense on a lot of levels. Mainly small sample size and not matching the eye test. But also common sense. What do you think is going on the first 18 minutes of games he ends up playing longer, anticipatory fatigue? He isn’t producing in this first 18 minutes because he knows he’s going to end up playing longer?

Well you playing in one line for the whole game vs. you playing in two lines throughout the game equals to shorter resting time between the shifts. So I would think he would be more exhausted after the first 18min in the latter case than in the first one.

 

[coooldude]

This doesn’t make sense on a lot of levels. Mainly small sample size and not matching the eye test. But also common sense. What do you think is going on the first 18 minutes of games he ends up playing longer, anticipatory fatigue? He isn’t producing in this first 18 minutes because he knows he’s going to end up playing longer?

One highly plausible explanation goes the other way.

In games he scores early, the team is more likely to be winning, and he's therefore less likely to need to be iced for 22+ minutes. Therefore he is more likely to have scored a point or even many points when his ice time ends up at 18min.

Even if the idea is that he's getting "double shifted" in games, and therefore when he's on the ice during a 22+ min game he's more fatigued than he is when he's on the ice in an 18min game, is actually only a 20%ish boost in ice time and might be more dependent on special teams than anything else, which you'd think would boost his points/60.

No matter what, the sample size is too small and the hidden factor possibility too large for the numbers to be taken at face value as a direct cause of poor play. If we actually looked at many seasons of historical splits between TOI and points/60 in a simple x-y scatter plot, and/or got deeper and tried to isolate for number of games or minutes in a certain period like a week, might be able to unearth this. I definitely believe the theory that Bednar falls back on "put the megastars out there" too much. But not with the sample size here with Rantanen specifically.

 

[Harhis]

This doesn’t make sense on a lot of levels. Mainly small sample size and not matching the eye test. But also common sense. What do you think is going on the first 18 minutes of games he ends up playing longer, anticipatory fatigue? He isn’t producing in this first 18 minutes because he knows he’s going to end up playing longer?

It actually does. When he plays more he obviously has less time to recover between shifts. How much it effect? Only Rantanen can tell.

 

[Dirty Dog]

you guys think he’s getting double shifted in those first two periods? And those seconds of less rest is the reason he isn’t producing in those games? That’s what your going with?

Not it’s an extremely small sample of games and he’s actually looked really good in several of the games and the increased TOI is a countenance in those games?

 

[heksagon]

you guys think he’s getting double shifted in those first two periods? And those seconds of less rest is the reason he isn’t producing in those games? That’s what your going with?

Not it’s an extremely small sample of games and he’s actually looked really good in several of the games and the increased TOI is a countenance in those games?

For the bolded part: Yes? He's been double shifted right from the start in the last 3 games. He played on two different lines because Dallas iced only 11 forwards (and 7 D) to ease in Heiskanen.

 

[Dirty Dog]

For the bolded part: Yes? He's been double shifted right from the start in the last 3 games. He played on two different lines because Dallas iced only 11 forwards (and 7 D) to ease in Heiskanen.

I understand he’s playing a few extra shifts and couple extra minutes a period. My point is, I find it really hard to believe that’s contributing to his lack of production in the games at all. He has still looked great for the most part, we’re talking about a very small size. Over a large sample size, sure, that seems like it could be a big issue. But to think he’s being double shifted in those first few periods and those extra minutes and shifts are resulting in him not producing seems like stretch.

 

[jalapenoWithAnH]

I understand he’s playing a few extra shifts and couple extra minutes a period. My point is, I find it really hard to believe that’s contributing to his lack of production in the games at all. He has still looked great for the most part, we’re talking about a very small size. Over a large sample size, sure, that seems like it could be a big issue. But to think he’s being double shifted in those first few periods and those extra minutes and shifts are resulting in him not producing seems like stretch.

It's not just the few extra shifts per period. You also have to factor in the decreased resting time between shifts. Obviously that will accumulate towards the end of the game.

 

[avocadosmoothie]

I hope DeBoer stops playing Rantanen for +20 minutes. His worst games in playoffs have been in the games he has had over 20min TOI.

G2 vs Col: 26min, 0p, -1
G2 vs Wpg: 21:42min, 0p, -2
G4 vs Wpg: 23:49min, 1p, +1
G5 vs Wpg: 24:58min, 0p, -2
G6 vs Wpg: 24:23min, 0p, 0

=1 p, -4

Rest of the 8 games with less than 20min TOI:

=18p, +5

A clear trend here it seems. We are talking about a 215lbs forward after all.

that's really not that much.. he's still averaging fewer than 21 minutes per game these playoffs. his production won't just fall off a cliff because of a short stint of a few extra minutes per game. it's coincidence + various other factors unrelated to TOI