Never say never, but I would be surprised to see him back here while Fletcher is still around. There are rumors (that the team of course denied) that Giroux would completely waived his NMC if Fletcher would have given him a handshake deal to bring him back next year. Fletcher declined. Then went on to say that (i'm paraphrasing a bit here) Giroux hamstrung the team with his NMC in defense of the shit return he got.
I love Giroux, but I don't want him back anywhere near this team. He deserves better than this dumpster fire.
Piling on, there were related rumors that the team wanted to facilitate a leadership change, specifically wanting a more "vocal" leader *coughCevincough*, which contributed to their refusal to even offer to meet with Brisson in the offseason. (Not saying they won't ultimately do so, but there's no indication Fletcher was willing to promise even that little in advance.) I'd be very happy if he came back, but entirely unsurprised if he doesn't.
That said, I have the odds at 45% Florida, 40% Ottawa, 5% Philadelphia, 10% the field.