Black Gold Extractor
Registered User
- May 4, 2010
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- 4,967
I was going for simplicity. "Top10 is the new top5" is an easy mnemonic rule.
"Top7 in O6 era is top10" (or "top5 in O6 era is the current top7" - which is it?) invites the questions "why top7 and not top8", and questions like that can never a 100% satisfactory answer, since it is all approximation and not at all exact science.
While your idea is a good one, your original choice to use the #1 scorer as your "anchor" was not the greatest. As for the top 7 is top 10 or top 5 is top 7, either of each seems to work alright. It seems that a rough 1.4x rule is in play (5 x 1.4 = 7, or 7 x 1.4 = 9.8).
I once did a similar kind of analysis looking at the margins by which #2 in goals/points led #10 in goals/points in 1944-1970 and 1997-2017 (which should be immune from outliers).
From the work that I did yesterday (the tables are hidden in the spoilers), on average, the 2nd-place goal-scorer from 1944-1970 led the 5th place goal-scorer by 21%. Likewise, on average, the 2nd-place goal-scorer from 1997-2017 led the 7th place goal-scorer by 21%. All you need is to compare Hull to the #5 scorer and Ovechkin to the #7 scorer.
Season | Ovechkin | #7 | Ratio over #7 | Adj. To 2016-17 | Season | Hull | #5 | Ratio over #5 | Adj. To 2016-17 |
2007-08 | 65 | 42 | 1.55 | 56 | 1966-67 | 52 | 28 | 1.86 | 67 |
2014-15 | 53 | 37 | 1.43 | 52 | 1965-66 | 54 | 30 | 1.80 | 65 |
2013-14 | 51 | 36 | 1.42 | 51 | 1961-62 | 50 | 32 | 1.56 | 56 |
2015-16 | 50 | 36 | 1.39 | 50 | 1963-64 | 43 | 28 | 1.54 | 55 |
2012-13 | 32 | 23 | 1.39 | 50 | 1964-65 | 39 | 27 | 1.44 | 52 |
2008-09 | 56 | 40 | 1.40 | 50 | 1968-69 | 58 | 44 | 1.32 | 47 |
2009-10 | 50 | 40 | 1.25 | 45 | 1959-60 | 39 | 30 | 1.30 | 47 |
2005-06 | 52 | 47 | 1.11 | 40 | 1967-68 | 44 | 35 | 1.26 | 45 |
2006-07 | 46 | 43 | 1.07 | 39 | 1970-71 | 44 | 40 | 1.10 | 40 |
2011-12 | 38 | 37 | 1.03 | 37 | 1971-72 | 50 | 46 | 1.09 | 39 |
2016-17 | 33 | 36 | 0.92 | 33 | 1969-70 | 38 | 38 | 1.00 | 36 |
2010-11 | 32 | 36 | 0.89 | 32 | 1960-61 | 31 | 31 | 1.00 | 36 |
1962-63 | 31 | 33 | 0.94 | 34 | |||||
1958-59 | 18 | 33 | 0.55 | 20 | |||||
1957-58 | 13 | 30 | 0.43 | 16 |
Hull has the advantage (although Ovechkin amazingly has one additional "adjusted" 50-goal season over Hull). Does it pass the smell test? It's safe to say that 46 goals would give you the Richard every season since the shortened 12-13 season (excluding Ovechkin himself, of course). Assuming that they don't have to face one another, Ovechkin would have 6 while Hull would have 7.
Of course, what about VsX? It appears that the modification of your method does a better job than pure VsX since, using my aforementioned 1.4x finding, it's probably more fair to compare Ovechkin to the typical #3 scorer in his era while sticking with the typical #2 scorer (i.e. VsX most of the time) for Hull. As such, using a VsX estimate using the above (noting that the #7 scorer last season had 90% of the goals of the #2 scorer, and normalizing the #2 scorer to 50):
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]7-year VsX[/TD]
[TD]7-year VsX estimate (O6 top 5 = modern top 7)[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Hull[/TD]
[TD]70.2[/TD]
[TD]69.5[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]59.2[/TD]
[TD]63.2[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]