Where do the Leafs go?

[HofT]

The Leafs don't have their first round draft pick in 2025, 2026 or 2027. They don't even have their 2nd round pick in 2026. They basically have to keep trying. It's possible by 2027-28, Matthews will be ready to move on (last year of contract), Nylander will show some sign of aging (will turn 32 before the 2027-28 playoffs), the defense will fall off a cliff and at that point they can kick off a new rebuild to enter into a tank cycle with a Knies trade. Not much point in trying to get out ahead of it, too many NMCs at the moment. For now though, they basically have to stay aggressive for the next two years and try to maximize what they can out of this window.

It will be a pathetic regression year after year until they just decide to tank.

 

[BHD]

This is totally logical, but I think market pressure will push them into a major trade. Until now, the same market pressure prevented them from trading their core players, but it feels like the team has finally run out of excuses to avoid change. Besides, if Marner walks they have no choice but to reshuffle their lineup.

Morgan Rielly?

 

[Lshap]

Morgan Rielly?

Rielly's the longest serving player on the team, right? Yeah, he has value, although I doubt the Leafs could get enough to move the needle.

 

[BCNate]

Marner will almost certainly be gone. I have a hard time thinking that the Leafs are able to return anywhere near as strong next year he leaves. 90pt Selke level players don't grow on trees, he will be tough to replace. There isn't anyone as a UFA that can, and the Leafs have very few trade assets of value.

 

[thebeernerd]

After watching the Devils play their asses off against Carolina in spite of being outmatched and being coached by the Leaf faithful's old whipping boy, and then contrasting that to the pitiful display the Leafs put on in yet another Game 7, I can tell you this: it's on the players, specifically their mentality. I don't know whether it's nerves, entitlement, laziness, lack of giving a shit, etc. but it's definitely something. I thought Berube might be the coach to cut through that mental malaise but even he couldn't do it.

So the question is, which players need to go? Which players need to be traded, which ones need to walk in free agency (Marner), which ones should be on notice (Mathews), and which ones are the guys who you can trust to keep at it (Knies)? What I have no doubt about is that Shanahan shouldn't be the guy who makes these decisions. He hasn't earned another chance. His solution was to continue relying on a core of guys who can't get it done, chasing out Dubas in the process. Now that they haven't, and given the likelihood that at least one of them is going to walk or be dealt in free agency, he needs to face the music. But I doubt that's going to happen. Until that does I don't trust the Leafs to do the right thing. And I have a feeling that when it finally does happen, it's going to be too late, with the Leafs set up for a new era of failure similar to the one they had prior to Mathews.

 

[BHD]

Rielly's the longest serving player on the team, right? Yeah, he has value, although I doubt the Leafs could get enough to move the needle.

Marner's departure seems like a foregone conclusion and Tavares could be wearing a different sweater next season. That leaves Matthews, Rielly, and Nylander... I can't see a scenario where they move on from Marner, Tavares, and one of Matthews or Nylander in one off-season.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Probably has been said but they need a Shoresey to set the tone. Sure it's fun when Marner yells a little but even having Ryan Reaves or a Matt Martin type would have been better than relying on depth pieces like Jarnkrok (a fine player I guess but not really a huge emotional leader, physical presence or secondary scoring type).

 

[WarriorofTime]

Rielly's the longest serving player on the team, right? Yeah, he has value, although I doubt the Leafs could get enough to move the needle.

Rielly has 5 years left on his deal and a NMC. He's not going anywhere.

 

[Captain Mountain]

A lot of people (myself included) had written off Washington before they got their cup. They were playing too cute before IMO and really took it up a notch that year. Winning the cup is really hard of course, but some people seems to underrate simply being able to at least compete for it (meaning making the Playoffs year after year with a competitive team).

Sure, it must sucks to be a leaf fan and I'd probably be happy to see the GM blow it up a bit if I was a fan of the team because as fans it's hard to root for underachievers but as a neutral fan it's probably best to tweak it a bit and hope for the best.

The Capitals also dramatically overhauled their core before winning their cup.

The Leafs have done everything but that, even if they probably should have moved someone before all the NMCs kicked in.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This is totally logical, but I think market pressure will push them into a major trade. Until now, the same market pressure prevented them from trading their core players, but it feels like the team has finally run out of excuses to avoid change. Besides, if Marner walks they have no choice but to reshuffle their lineup.

Yea I think it’s likely they re-tool and try to redirect the savings from Marner likely walking elsewhere, I just think they have to stay trying to win.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The Capitals also dramatically overhauled their core before winning their cup.

The Leafs have done everything but that, even if they probably should have moved someone before all the NMCs kicked in.

True, I think only players that were there in 2017-18 that had already been there by the 2008-09 playoffs were Ovechkin and Backstrom. Everyone else like Semin, Green, Poti, Laich etc. was replaced. It helped that they were drafting very well amidst their competitive window and so with the growth of players like Carlson, Kuznetsov, Holtby, Wilson, Orlov, Stephenson were able to get where they needed internally (and crazy that they drafted and could have had Forsberg had they not squandered him). All those players were drafted after Washington started making the Playoffs. It's helped the Leafs a lot that Knies was able to come in as a reinforcement when he did as a way to keep it going, then we'll see about Cowan if he can have a similar impact. After that though? Re-tooling around just a couple of the guys is tougher when you don't have a big wave of reinforcements coming from the prospect pool and lack Futures worth of trade capital to offload to bring in more guys outside (because they've largely been trading away a lot of it to get to a point they're at now).

 

[Captain Mountain]

True, I think only players that were there in 2017-18 that had already been there by the 2008-09 playoffs were Ovechkin and Backstrom. Everyone else like Semin, Green, Poti, Laich etc. was replaced. It helped that they were drafting very well amidst their competitive window and so with the growth of players like Carlson, Kuznetsov, Holtby, Wilson, Orlov, Stephenson were able to get where they needed internally (and crazy that they drafted and could have had Forsberg had they not squandered him). It's helped the Leafs a lot that Knies was able to come in as a reinforcement when he did as a way to keep it going, then we'll see about Cowan if he can have a similar impact. After that though? Re-tooling around just a couple of the guys is tougher when you don't have a big wave of reinforcements coming from the prospect pool and lack Futures worth of trade capital to offload to bring in more guys outside (because they've largely been trading away a lot of it to get to a point they're at now).

They've also sacrificed a ton as part of the vision of keeping the core 4 (or 5) together. What do they look like if the starting point wasn't building a team around Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly. That's going to be a huge what if.

 

[FlameChampion]

Probably depends if MLSE wants to try and be a competitive team with a chance to win a cup or if they are content to try and make the playoffs and make money. The first option is very difficult with their current players and current division.

 

[MadLuke]

The Leafs don't have their first round draft pick in 2025, 2026 or 2027. They don't even have their 2nd round pick in 2026. They basically have to keep trying.

Even if they did had those draft pick, 27-28 years old Matthews-Nylander... bit of course you go for the cup next year... what else is there even to talk about.

With those NMC, they would only accept to move to a better contender and making that work trade wise with a cap and their contract, not easy. And they are the level of players you would dream to draft with high draft pick anyway...

 

[Fatass]

Looks like Shamaplan is heading to the islanders.

 

[brentashton]

Looks like Shamaplan is heading to the islanders.

ThePlanwasASham

 

[NYRnine94]

Retool and take another shot at it. They probably lose a few guys but that opens up cap for other players but they still have a decent team. If you can add guys who aren't as good as Marner in the regular season but come through in the playoffs, it's not a huge loss. Regular season means nothing at all

 

[Gil Gunderson]

The Capitals also dramatically overhauled their core before winning their cup.

The Leafs have done everything but that, even if they probably should have moved someone before all the NMCs kicked in.

Caps had John Carlsson on the back end just entering his prime. If I’m a Leafs fan the defence is actually my biggest concern. There are good pieces there but nobody I would consider a #1 dman, and everyone in the top 4 aside from Carlo is 32+ years old. Tanev is probably the best dman they have and he’ll be 36 by December. They’re only going to get older.

I really don’t buy this media narrative coming out about how Treliving has done an amazing job with the defence, just because they’re blocking a lot of shots now. I think they have really good games where they box out a lot of chances, but it doesn’t seem like a very durable group to go four rounds in the playoffs.

The Carlo and Tanev acquisitions were great, but I think it’s going to be tough for them moving forward if they don’t get an upgrade in Rielly’s spot.

 

[Lahey]

Caps had John Carlsson on the back end just entering his prime. If I’m a Leafs fan the defence is actually my biggest concern. There are good pieces there but nobody I would consider a #1 dman, and everyone in the top 4 aside from Carlo is 32+ years old. Tanev is probably the best dman they have and he’ll be 36 by December.

I really don’t buy this media narrative coming out about how Treliving has done an amazing job with the defence, just because they’re blocking a lot of shots now. I think they have really good games where they box out a lot of chances, but it doesn’t seem like a very durable group to go four rounds in the playoffs.

The Carmo and Tanev acquisitions were great, but I think it’s going to be tough for them moving forward if they don’t get an upgradenin Rielly’s spot.

Tend to agree here. They’re not really a good puck moving group on the back end and lack a #1.

 

[12ozPapa]

Break up that core of babies and move on

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Here is what you do.

Step 1 walk away from Shanny.

Step 2 let Marner walk, step 2 sucks because Marner is a great player but you have to do because you have to increase the depth and you need that money, I love Mitch but he has to go.

Step 3find rakers for Berube and Kampf, I like both players but they are not Berube system players.

Step 4 sign JT

Step 5 take the Marner money and use it acquire at least 2 players because you have to increase the depth.

Trade options include Marchment, Crouse, Garland, Krider.

Ideally the trade target is somebody with size at LW that can get to the inside of the ice that can score.

Garland doesn't quite have the size I'd ideally want at LW but I've been a fan of his since his days with what is now Utah so I made an exception for him.

Then you have to sign a forward be it Granlund, or Brock Nelson, or Ehlers, or Matt Duchene, or Boesser it doesn't really matter who but regardless of how you do it, you need 2 top 6 forwards.

My target here would be Nelson because it would give you the option to run Matthews, Tavares, Nelson down the middle when needed.

Then we get to the bottom 6 and this is where I think most of the work needs to be done.

I want Lorentz back they need to keep that guy.

I think Brandon Tanev lands here, his brother is already here.

I think Andrew Mangiapane probably lands here too, he's from Toronto and Treliving had him in Calgary.

You'll notice I didn't talk about the defense that's because I think 1-7 their defense is solid.

But I think there is a MAJOR reconstruction of forwards.

Unless your name is Matthews, Nylander or Knies I think you are available.

I don't think Domi or Laughton are going anywhere either but I'm not ruling it out.

 

[GQS]

I really don’t buy this media narrative coming out about how Treliving has done an amazing job with the defence, just because they’re blocking a lot of shots now. I think they have really good games where they box out a lot of chances, but it doesn’t seem like a very durable group to go four rounds in the playoffs.

The Carlo and Tanev acquisitions were great, but I think it’s going to be tough for them moving forward if they don’t get an upgrade in Rielly’s spot.

Just my opinion, but I think the Leafs defense is pretty good right now and that for the most part they played pretty well in the playoffs outside of Rielly who was kinda good at times, but mostly average to bad.

Tanev and McCabe have been a good shutdown pairing, OEL has looked decent and Benoit has looked quite good and really surprised in the playoffs. Carlo looked decent as well although maybe he'd do better if he didn't have Rielly as his partner. If the Leafs can move Rielly and replace him with a decent offensive Dman, that would be a good group going forward. Sure they're on the older side, but as long as they can stay healthy and keep playing well that's all that matters.

Right now the biggest issue with the Leafs is their forwards where despite all that talent on paper, they far too often can't produce offense on the ice in the playoffs. With Marner likely gone as well as a few other forwards, if they can bring in some good forwards to change the mix, maybe their fortunes may change in the playoffs.