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When Will The USA Be The Country To Beat? (EDIT: Not just for WJHC)

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Penguins23

Penguins23

Le Magnifique
Dec 14, 2006
15,643
102
NB Canada
Disclosure : Die-Hard Canadian but a Pittsburgh fan(all sports teams) so I've grown to like USA quite a bit and have been following the growth of hockey in the country for a while now.

I was reading the ASU thread(Congrats on the new program btw) and it got me thinking, how close is the USA in surpassing Canada as the country to beat in hockey? I was in Mexico this past winter and met a couple from Finland and he said their country was really happy to win the WJHC and to beat Canada along the way made it even better. Kinda shocked me because people around here seem to think only Canada cares about the WJHC but anyways.

Hockey in the USA has really grown and I'm thinking they are pretty close to being the country to beat. Here's just some random stuff that leads me to believe USA could surpass Canada in the near future. With their population, I'm not sure Canada will ever be able to regain their status as the hockey powerhouse of the world.

In 1990-1991 they had under 200,000 registered hockey players. Now they have over 500,000.

In the 2014, NHL entry draft, they had 67 players drafted. Canada had 77. (As per NHL.com. Wiki says 64-80) Canada had 6 of the top 7 picks but USA still managed 5 first rounders. In 2015, USA could have 2 of top 3 picks.

In the 2010 NHL Entry draft, the USA had 13 of the first 32 picks.

The USA has won the WJHC twice since Canada was last able to do it. This isn't always the best indication since some top players are often in the NHL but it still shows that Canada is no longer the dominant country it once was.


I probably missed some stuff but do others agree with me? When will this happen? 10 years? Less?
Click to read more...
 
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I wonder how much canada would have dominated that wjc if we didn't have so many playing In the nhl. If America was catching up it would be loosing +4 people a year in the nhl also not just 1 maybe two.
 
I'd say quite a bit longer. Canada is still producing the highest level of talent and, by far, the deepest pool of talent. I don't see that changing in just ten years. Since 2008, only one non-Canadian has been drafted first overall and that was a Russian (Yakupov). This year's draft will, almost certainly, be a Canadian (McDavid) picked first, as well. And it looks like the majority of the first round's potential picks will be Canadian too. And if you look at the current list of the ten best players in the NHL, only 2 or 3 would be non-Canadians (OV, Malkin, and maybe Kopitar) and none of them would likely be Americans. And only a handful of Americans would likely make a top 50 list (Kane, Suter, Kessel, Quick, Parise and McDonagh).

Canada is currently stronger at the top end, deeper and has more talent coming up, IMO. The States are making huge strides but it's going to take a while, to usurp Canada.
 
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In World Juniors? It always depends on the crop of players produced for those 2/3 years in a row. You basically want 18 and 19 year old players who are good, but not good enough to make the NHL, kind of like Sweden last year. USA players taking the NCAA route generally don't make the NHL until they're 21/22, so they're available for the world juniors up until their last year, where highly drafted CHL players usually only get their draft year to play in the world juniors. I'd definitely say Canada and the US are on par for favourites at the world juniors (along with Sweden), but if you're talking hockey as a whole like olympics and everything, there isn't really any country close to Canada.

If the World Juniors took place in the summer and every eligible player was able to play, I don't think it would be that close either. Canada would have Mackinnon, Ekblad, Drouin and Monahan all playing for them as well as Duclair, Horvat and Lazar. That's 7 NHLers who are already making an impact for their respective teams.
 
Never unless MLB/NFL/NBA expand more into Canada, and the Canadian soccer team becomes relevant. Right now we have 1 MLB team, 1 NBA team, and zero NFL teams so there isn't much of a threat to hockey in this country. Canada's biggest MLB star is Votto who really isn't all that marketable. our biggest NFL star is probably a kicker. In the NBA we have some young talent, but it will be a while before Wiggins approaches a Nash level impact, if ever. Majority of kids will still stick with hockey as their number one sport and Canada will continue pumping out a plethora of talent. I don't see hockey ever getting enough exposure in the US to overtake Canada.
 
When we find a time machine and use it to convince a 14 year old JJ Watt to not give up his dreams of the NHL.
 
Edler Von Gud said:
Never unless MLB/NFL/NBA expand more into Canada, and the Canadian soccer team becomes relevant. Right now we have 1 MLB team, 1 NBA team, and zero NFL teams so there isn't much of a threat to hockey in this country. Canada's biggest MLB star is Votto who really isn't all that marketable. our biggest NFL star is probably a kicker. In the NBA we have some young talent, but it will be a while before Wiggins approaches a Nash level impact, if ever. Majority of kids will still stick with hockey as their number one sport and Canada will continue pumping out a plethora of talent. I don't see hockey ever getting enough exposure in the US to overtake Canada.
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Whereas hockey is pretty much maxed out in Canada already, there's a lot of room for growth in the US.

Just look at these numbers, hockey is growing in virtually every state:
http://unitedstatesofhockey.com/2013/09/13/hockeys-growth-in-the-united-states-2003-2013/
 
I'm happy to see the game growing here, but I don't think we're true contenders until we start producing #1 C's on the level of Giroux, Getzlaf, Toews, Tavares, etc. (let alone a Crosby-type generational player).

Despite a 1-0 score at the Olympics, I never really felt it was that close.

Over the last few years, I think our defense has been making good strides. McDonagh, Jones, Trouba, Fowler, Carlson, Faulk is a pretty promising group, with guys like Hanifin and Werenski showing some promise too.

Hopefully Eichel, Matthews, Khodorenko, Wise, can start adding to our center depth in the coming years.

Majority of kids will still stick with hockey as their number one sport and Canada will continue pumping out a plethora of talent. I don't see hockey ever getting enough exposure in the US to overtake Canada.
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Tough to say, the US doesn't have to adopt hockey to the same extent as Canada to start producing comparable talent, assuming the distribution of talent is random. California alone has as many people as Canada, if I remember correctly. Will be interesting if we start to see more talent emerges from that region in the next decade or two (ex. Matthews).
 
Penguins23 said:
Disclosure : Die-Hard Canadian but a Pittsburgh fan(all sports teams) so I've grown to like USA quite a bit and have been following the growth of hockey in the country for a while now.

I was reading the ASU thread(Congrats on the new program btw) and it got me thinking, how close is the USA in surpassing Canada as the country to beat in hockey? I was in Mexico this past winter and met a couple from Finland and he said their country was really happy to win the WJHC and to beat Canada along the way made it even better. Kinda shocked me because people around here seem to think only Canada cares about the WJHC but anyways.

Hockey in the USA has really grown and I'm thinking they are pretty close to being the country to beat. Here's just some random stuff that leads me to believe USA could surpass Canada in the near future. With their population, I'm not sure Canada will ever be able to regain their status as the hockey powerhouse of the world.

In 1990-1991 they had under 200,000 registered hockey players. Now they have over 500,000.

In the 2014, NHL entry draft, they had 67 players drafted. Canada had 77. (As per NHL.com. Wiki says 64-80) Canada had 6 of the top 7 picks but USA still managed 5 first rounders. In 2015, USA could have 2 of top 3 picks.

In the 2010 NHL Entry draft, the USA had 13 of the first 32 picks.

The USA has won the WJHC twice since Canada was last able to do it. This isn't always the best indication since some top players are often in the NHL but it still shows that Canada is no longer the dominant country it once was.


I probably missed some stuff but do others agree with me? When will this happen? 10 years? Less?
Click to expand...

It will NEVER happen
 
Never say never. I suspect Canada will always be seen as one of the teams to beat, but it isn't completely out there to suggest the US can match, or surpass them at some point. They just have a ways to go.

As others have said, there is tremendous opportunity for growth, and the interest continues to pick up.
 
Umm not for at least 25 more years. Nothing against the USA, they are definitely an emerging super power, there are just lots of factors against it.

1. Cold weather- the Outdoor rink gives kids that play in the northern part of the continent a lot more opprotunity to practice. I played 80 ice times a year but I also grew up in Alberta, if there's one nice thing about five months of winter you can play a lot of hockey (ever wonder why more hockey players come from Alberta/ capita then anywhere else? It's because it's very cold and we got nothing else to do.

2. Culture. Hockey is Canada. It's part of our every day culture. It isn't some niche sport like it is in the USA. Hockey is maybe the most important aspect of our identity as a nation.

3. Canada is still producing top-end talent. The US has some studs coming on the blueline, Trouba, Jones, Maybe Hanifin
But so does Canada, Ekblad, Murray,
But the real difference is in the forwards. With young guys like John Tavares, Seguin, Stamkos, Mackinnon, McDavid on and on and on. It's just the US hasn't been able to produce to this point. Yes they have very good players. Usually almost 1 every year.
 
LEAFANFORLIFE23 said:
It will NEVER happen
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Never is a long time.

30 years ago the league was 76.5% Canadian.
20 years ago, 62.9% Canadian.
10 years ago, 54.4% Canadian.
Today, 50.9% Canadian.

The fact that it's still so high is a testament to how great you guys are at the sport though, I wish my country shared the same love of the game.
 
I don't see it ever happening. Hockey growth will eventually stagnate. You can't sustain such development. They may reach the same level as Canada, and are trending towards that, but I don't think they're ever going to be "the team to beat," at least for any length of time. That is to say, I think that they have the potential to reach the level of Canada, but I don't see it progressing past. There are a number of other excellent hockey nations, and Canada though known as the team to beat, has a TON of really good competition.
 
Penguins23 said:
I was in Mexico this past winter and met a couple from Finland and he said their country was really happy to win the WJHC and to beat Canada along the way made it even better. Kinda shocked me because people around here seem to think only Canada cares about the WJHC but anyways.
Click to expand...

I'd say hockey is pretty much as big in Finland as it is in Canada. Every Finnish person I meet travelling seems to be able to talk hockey in depth.

I'm not sure the USA will ever become the team to beat.

It is more likely to just even out where any of the big 4-5 could win any tournament.

It's pretty much there now.
 
Penguins23 said:
I was in Mexico this past winter and met a couple from Finland and he said their country was really happy to win the WJHC and to beat Canada along the way made it even better. Kinda shocked me because people around here seem to think only Canada cares about the WJHC but anyways.
Click to expand...

The WJC really isn't that popular here. Here people only gathered interest in the event as Finland advanced to the final, before that most people didn't even know the tournament was going on.
 
Melrose Munch said:
Canadian hockey players keep having american kids so.
Click to expand...

Yet a lot of them choose to play for Canada despite playing all their hockey up until juniors in USA. The 2016 draft could be basically no Canadians in the top10 if Logan Brown and Jakob Chychrun would play for the nation they grew up in. Anyway, I think US are really getting there. The growth recent years has been gigantic. Just look at their 96, 97 and 98 crops. Very impressive, and there's no reason to think it won't continue. I think they'll always be overshadowed by Canada to some degree but that gap is closing rapidly.
 
Once it's affordable to lower and middle class families.

If you could start a development program in Texas, Alabama, and Florida. Football / Baseball / Soccer / Basketball are cheap vs Hockey.

But if you convince JJ Watts to go NHL not NFL... Wow.
 
If the best athletes in the United States grew up playing hockey the NHL would be made up entirely of US players. Everyone in the league would be 6'5, 230 pounds, and skate like the wind. It would be physically brutal sport to play in.
 
Not for a while. Too many other sports that draw in athletic kids there. Until hockey can go right up against football, baseball, and basketball it's just not going to happen. Already have the disadvantage of being more expensive from an equipment point of view than most of those sports.

Someday, maybe.
 
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