HF Habs: When will the Habs have an elite forward?

[26Mats]

after drafting the shit out of C's and D's, it's time Timmins went crazy and drafted 14 wingers next summer

Good things quality wingers are the most consistent, plentiful resource on the ufa market...

I think RD is our biggest need going forward by position. Overall, our biggest need is elite talent at any position. Price can't play forever, so even in goal.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Good things quality wingers are the most consistent, plentiful resource on the ufa market...

I think RD is our biggest need going forward by position. Overall, our biggest need is elite talent at any position. Price can't play forever, so even in goal.

We didn’t have great teams during the 10’s, but I feel like we have been somewhat spoiled when it comes to depth at RD with Subban, Weber and Petry given how in demand that position is. We’ve been spoiled with goaltending as well, but I have a lot more faith in us being able to find somebody to take over the goaltending position then the right side on D once our current core ages out.

 

[26Mats]

We didn’t have great teams during the 10’s, but I feel like we have been somewhat spoiled when it comes to depth at RD with Subban, Weber and Petry given how in demand that position is. We’ve been spoiled with goaltending as well, but I have a lot more faith in us being able to find somebody to take over the goaltending position then the right side on D once our current core ages out.

Timmins is good at finding D. So that's reason for optimism. But it's always hard to find number 1 and top pairing dmen.

Would be huge if Romanov or Norlinder are.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Timmins is good at finding D. So that's reason for optimism. But it's always hard to find number 1 and top pairing dmen.

Would be huge if Romanov or Norlinder are.

Timmins found Subban, but other then that, he’s been extremely weak at finding anything over a long span of time at that position.

 

[PuckNorris]

When they start drafting and developing players. Look at the drafts between 2008-2017... Gallagher, Lehkonen and Mete. That's all they have to show for ten draft classes. That's beyond terrible. Not to mention they traded the one good first round pick they made during that span.

It looks like they've finally put more importance on that in the past 2 years. Hopefully, it begins to bear fruit.

 

[LaP]

Timmins found Subban, but other then that, he’s been extremely weak at finding anything over a long span of time at that position.

McDO and Sergachev are not bad either. I mean Subban, McDO and Sergachev in the span of 10 years is not bad at all. The problem is two of them were traded for a 2nd line forward not very good defensively and kind of lazy.

 

[salbutera]

Timmins found Subban, but other then that, he’s been extremely weak at finding anything over a long span of time at that position.

He found McDonough & Subban at the same draft, he also found Sergachev. Habs have always been strong at drafting G and Dman their weakness for nearly 50-years now has been offensively gifted forwards, specifically 1st round success.

Post Gainey in 1973, Mark Napier, Mark Hunter (w STL), and Koivu are the only 1st round forwards who’ve had 70+ point seasons - KK may potentially achieve that milestone.

This is not a simple Timmins drafting or Lefebvre development problem, it’s much more complex - till 1993 Habs had the best player development guru in the league in Claude Ruel.

 

[dcyhabs]

He was terrific but not elite

Not a stats guy but he played against opponents top lines and consistently outscored them. Not highest scorer but maybe MVP.

 

[dcyhabs]

He found McDonough & Subban at the same draft, he also found Sergachev. Habs have always been strong at drafting G and Dman their weakness for nearly 50-years now has been offensively gifted forwards, specifically 1st round success.

Post Gainey in 1973, Mark Napier, and Koivu are the only 1st round forwards who’ve had 70+ point seasons - KK may potentially achieve that milestone.

This is not a simple Timmins drafting or Lefebvre development problem, it’s much more complex - till 1993 Habs had the best player development guru in the league in Claude Ruel.

And it should be easy. For the first round forward just draft the guy with the most points corrected by league. D and G are harder to predict.

 

[nhlfan9191]

McDO and Sergachev are not bad either. I mean Subban, McDO and Sergachev in the span of 10 years is not bad at all. The problem is two of them were traded for a 2nd line forward not very good defensively and kind of lazy.

He found McDonough & Subban at the same draft, he also found Sergachev. Habs have always been strong at drafting G and Dman their weakness for nearly 50-years now has been offensively gifted forwards, specifically 1st round success.

Post Gainey in 1973, Mark Napier, Mark Hunter (w STL), and Koivu are the only 1st round forwards who’ve had 70+ point seasons - KK may potentially achieve that milestone.

This is not a simple Timmins drafting or Lefebvre development problem, it’s much more complex - till 1993 Habs had the best player development guru in the league in Claude Ruel.

I’m not talking LHD, I’m talking RHD. Finding elite RHD is much harder then left because there is much less of them around. That was the point of my post.

 

[salbutera]

And it should be easy. For the first round forward just draft the guy with the most points corrected by league. D and G are harder to predict.

It’s a chicken and egg situation, is it the strong emphasis on 200-ft game the org implemented in 1947 under Selke the reason for lack of offensive forward development? Is the market too demanding for the specific players drafted? Were they simply poor evaluations? Or a combination of previous factors?

 

[26Mats]

Timmins found Subban, but other then that, he’s been extremely weak at finding anything over a long span of time at that position.

McDonagh? Sergachev? Streit (62 point all-star Streit in his prime)? And now a cupboard that's overflowing with D prospects?

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Haven't had one since Kovalev. Could take a while unless Drouin fulfills his potential.

What potential ? The guy is almost 26 years old, it's over.

 

[MisterY]

As pathetic as this sound, I legit believe Ilya Kovalchuk was our last elite player and we won’t see a player remotely close to this talent for 5+ years.

how can you say something that stupid as 5+ years, and in the same time qualify Kovalchuk as our last elite player?

First of all, did you predicted the arrival of Kovalchuk? No. So how can you predict that it would take at least 5 years to do something like that again?

Second, even if Kovalchuk was indeed an elite player 10 years ago in the NHL, I would not qualify him as an elite player when he was with us. It would be like saying Perry is still an elite player.

Finally, Suzuki has the potential to become an elite player, but the last one we had is probably Kovalev...

 

[the]

how can you say something that stupid as 5+ years, and in the same time qualify Kovalchuk as our last elite player?

First of all, did you predicted the arrival of Kovalchuk? No. So how can you predict that it would take at least 5 years to do something like that again?

Second, even if Kovalchuk was indeed an elite player 10 years ago in the NHL, I would not qualify him as an elite player when he was with us. It would be like saying Perry is still an elite player.

Finally, Suzuki has the potential to become an elite player, but the last one we had is probably Kovalev...

Do you see an end in sight? I don’t and I’m tired of having a carrot dangle in front of me. We always have the best, greatest future superstar prospect until that player fade away and we get a new fancy toy to replace him just to keep the hope alive and continue the vicious cycle.

Nick Suzuki has shown some nice flashes but he still has a long way to go. Nobody in our prospect pool has elite talent so yes we are most probably looking at 5+ years. Nothing stupid in saying this.

The term elite can be debatable. Is it top 5? Top 10? Top 30? Did I go over the top by mentioning Ilya Kovalchuk? Absolutely but I do legit believe he was our most exciting player since Alexander Radulov.

 

[ZUKI]

How many years do you predict until the Habs have an elite gamebreaking forward?

Edit: Due to lack of clarity of the word elite, let's say top 10 in the league in that particular position.

Then Danault, as a defensive center !
He brakes so much opposite plays

 

[Tyson]

Not a stats guy but he played against opponents top lines and consistently outscored them. Not highest scorer but maybe MVP.

He was a great player for the Habs, one of Savard's beat trades. 97 points during the cup run and the last 40 goal scorer the Habs have produced.

 

[Canadienna]

KK might or might not become a good too 6 center in this league, but call me when he becomes "elite".

I won't be waiting on that call

What? You just moved the goalposts by a mile. You said we have nothing to show for our two 3rd overall picks.

Kotkaniemi and Anderson are solid pieces. I'm not arguing we maximized the potential, but saying we have nothing to show for it is disingenuous.

 

[Canadienna]

We had a chance to have a potential top forward in this years draft but we passed it up and now we will spend the next 5 years watching some of them become great players.

I'm sorry who are you referring to here?

 

[OldCraig71]

I'm sorry who are you referring to here?

The Habs.

 

[MasterD]

What? You just moved the goalposts by a mile. You said we have nothing to show for our two 3rd overall picks.

Kotkaniemi and Anderson are solid pieces. I'm not arguing we maximized the potential, but saying we have nothing to show for it is disingenuous.

Potential top 6 players, who HAVEN'T produced like top 6 players yet (granted KK is still young) is very disappointing for top 3 picks. If that's we get from top 3 picks, we are decades from having an elite forward, outside of getting lucky.

 

[salbutera]

Potential top 6 players, who HAVEN'T produced like top 6 players yet (granted KK is still young) is very disappointing for top 3 picks. If that's we get from top 3 picks, we are decades from having an elite forward, outside of getting lucky.

But it’s all about getting lucky. You need to get lucky to finish 1st overall in an Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, McDavid, Mathews draft year, have a Petterson / Aho order of magnitude ramp up as a 19- year old, or you end up with Hischier / Hughes or worse yet Yakupov / Galchenyuk

 

[dcyhabs]

It’s a chicken and egg situation, is it the strong emphasis on 200-ft game the org implemented in 1947 under Selke the reason for lack of offensive forward development? Is the market too demanding for the specific players drafted? Were they simply poor evaluations? Or a combination of previous factors?

Well they haven't picked many forwards early in the first round, Kotkaniemi and Galchenyuk. Caulfield, too soon to tell. Kotkaniemi, getting there, Poehling, maybe, Scherbak, late pick, McCarron, reach, bust, Galchenyuk, bad draft year not a bad pick, Leblanc, not a great pick, bad development, bust, Pacioretty, truly inspired pick, Chipchura, defensive emphasis, bad pick, injury bust, Kostitsyn, good player, bad pick in a loaded draft, Higgins, not bad...

I think they should be drafting more offensive players in the first round because there is more useful data. Forwards have points, and, while they should play defense, they shouldn't have to concentrate on defense in lower leagues if they are to make the NHL. I haven't done the analysis but I saw an analysis years back by some obsessive Leafs fan comparing their picks to the highest scorer available, stats only, and part of the result is that the Leafs were a disaster then, but it also showed value in just looking at the points. Scouting has massively improved. If you sort drafts by goals or points the older ones had way more late picks high, while recent drafts have more first rounders and fewer late picks.

 

[dcyhabs]

But it’s all about getting lucky. You need to get lucky to finish 1st overall in an Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, McDavid, Mathews draft year, have a Petterson / Aho order of magnitude ramp up as a 19- year old, or you end up with Hischier / Hughes or worse yet Yakupov / Galchenyuk

The top few are usually good, plus one or two later picks per draft. Question is whether those are identified by skill or by luck. Some are certainly luck as they change unpredictably, but say Pavelski, Hoffman, Stone, Gaudreau, Kucherov, Point, Bratt, Marchand, just searching high scorers outside the first round or two...

The Senators and Lightning did some serious drafting.

Other than mostly being mostly small or very small (Hoffman is big) for hockey players I don't know how much they have in common. I'm too lazy to check their pre-draft stats and compare to peers just now.

 

[salbutera]

Well they haven't picked many forwards early in the first round, Kotkaniemi and Galchenyuk. Caulfield, too soon to tell. Kotkaniemi, getting there, Poehling, maybe, Scherbak, late pick, McCarron, reach, bust, Galchenyuk, bad draft year not a bad pick, Leblanc, not a great pick, bad development, bust, Pacioretty, truly inspired pick, Chipchura, defensive emphasis, bad pick, injury bust, Kostitsyn, good player, bad pick in a loaded draft, Higgins, not bad...

I think they should be drafting more offensive players in the first round because there is more useful data. Forwards have points, and, while they should play defense, they shouldn't have to concentrate on defense in lower leagues if they are to make the NHL. I haven't done the analysis but I saw an analysis years back by some obsessive Leafs fan comparing their picks to the highest scorer available, stats only, and part of the result is that the Leafs were a disaster then, but it also showed value in just looking at the points. Scouting has massively improved. If you sort drafts by goals or points the older ones had way more late picks high, while recent drafts have more first rounders and fewer late picks.

They picked the unanimous 1st overall in 1980 (Wickenheiser), almost unanimous #3 overall in 2012 (Galchenyuk) - Jose Charbonneau, Alfie Turcotte, Mark Pederson, Andrew Cassels, Eric Charron followed by WHL bust class were all at projected levels by Central Scouting, yet none of them manifested. Habs went off the board to select Koivu (at the draft position) only because JC Tremblay almost punched out Carol Vandais (Savard’s Dir of Scouting)...go figure.

All this to say, scouting 18-year olds unless they are obvious generational talents (McDavid, Crosby et al) is a pure crap shoot. If Caufield ends up sucking will the Habs scouts be to blame again? Recall everyone was losing their collective s*it when he dropped to the Habs spot..