When does the Yzerplan start getting criticized?

Miller Time

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2 years. Wings are developing their center depth in Danielsson (#1B centerman) behind Larkin and Kasper (#3 center).

They have good goaltending coming up. Fabulous Dmen. Some gritty forwards on their way up. Plus whatever Yzerman decides to hose out other GMs in trades. I also suspect Yzerman will upgrade the coaching staff after Laldone's contract.
So 7 offseasons & 6 full seasons...

That seems excessive to me even if a GM was walking into a brutal situation like the one Ken Hughes stepped into with the Habs 2 years ago.

Your patience is admirable, though I'm not sure many owners or fan bases would be so charitable.
 
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Dotter

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You know your argument is flimsy when you are referring to the mysterious “most recent redraft” from an unnamed publication and then tossing out the “one of the better players on the ice”

I can't watch all the prospects and stat watching doesn't do them any justice. So I have to resort to guys who get paid to follow these players. Everything I have read about Kasper has been positive after his initial struggles. Wings have one of the top rated prospects pools in the NHL, with Kasper ranked 4th best. Cossa, ASP, Danielsson all ranked higher.

As for the source, here you go:
 

eviohh26

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2 years. Wings are developing their center depth in Danielsson (#1B centerman) behind Larkin and Kasper (#3 center).

They have good goaltending coming up. Fabulous Dmen. Some gritty forwards on their way up. Plus whatever Yzerman decides to hose out other GMs in trades. I also suspect Yzerman will upgrade the coaching staff after Laldone's contract.
I watched Danielsson live during the WHL playoffs and he was super meh. I wouldn't bet too much on this player.
 
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nbwingsfan

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Don,t get me wrong, the Leddy exit trade was excellent, because they correctly identified Walman as a guy with potential. Hell this is probably Yzerman's best trade in Detroit. But giving up a 2nd for Leddy in the first place was still a poor trade. If anything, he should have gotten a 2nd for taking on that contract. Leddy was bad in Detroit, and Yzerman had to retain 50% of his 5.5M contract to get rid of him, for another, smaller cap dump in Sundqvist. The great move was to leverage taking on the extra cap into a couple of throw-in, one of which turned out great.

Then again Leddy has looked decent in St. Louis, so maybe this was one of those fabled "win-win" trades.
Trading expiring contacts at 50% is the absolute norm, not something he “had to do”.
 

Dotter

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So 7 offseasons & 6 full seasons...

That seems excessive to me even if a GM was walking into a brutal situation like the one Ken Hughes stepped into with the Habs 2 years ago.

Your patience is admirable, though I'm not sure many owners or fan bases would be so charitable.

You could've slid that timeframe up had Wings not been cheated out of the lottery like 3 times in 5 years. So more time developing is needed.

Wings are a fun team to watch and it's fun watching these kids play and turn into clutch players right in front of your eyes. I'm not a fan of their coach. I think Wings are a playoff team now with a better coach.
 

SympathyForTheDevils

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Leddy was the #3 defenseman in Detroit. Trading a 2nd for a a #3 defender is about market value at the draft.

What? In no universe is that true. Unless you meant 2nd-line center instead of 2nd round pick, like in the Byram trade. No contending team, no matter how stupid would trade a #3 Dman for a mere 2nd rounder. The Isles traded Leddy because he was an overpaid liability whose only use was rendered obsolete with the arrival of Dobson. Detroit essentially paid them to accept a cap dump.

So...Yzerman turned the #52 overall pick in 2021 into Walman, a pretty solid defender, the #42 pick in 2023 and #117 pick in 2023. That's a good trade any day.

That's the description if you don't understand value in a cap league. What actually happened is that Yzerman traded a 2nd (and a much smaller cap dump) for a bad contract, then turned eating half of that bad contract and taking on an additional bad contract (Sundqvist's) into a 2nd and a bottom-pairing Dman, who turned out to be pretty decent.

And again, I don't deny Yzerman admirably corrected his mistake. I've already said that trade was probably his best as Red Wings manager. My contention is that the original trade was bad, albeit minor. I'm baffled that Wings fans would fight me on this. Should I go check the WIngs board circa 2021 to see how much you all loved Leddy and his 5.5M contract?

Trading expiring contacts at 50% is the absolute norm, not something he “had to do”.

It is not a "norm". It is what teams with cap space do to leverage said cap space, for example by turning negative assets like Leddy's contract into assets with some value. So yes, if he wanted to get something from Leddy, he "had to", because after the year Leddy had with the Wings, no team would have been stupid enough to give up assets for him at the deadline with a 5.5M pricetag attached.
 

GMR

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I hear you.

Just disagree with the last sentence.

If 4 seasons/5 offseasons is "too early" to start assessing the quality of a rebuild plan, then I have to ask what a reasonable timeframe is?

That a case can be made that this has been a mediocre rebuild, thus far, doesn't mean it's a failure.
Doesn't mean there isn't reason for optimism.
Doesn't mean Yzerman should be fired.

It's just pointing out something that I suspect he believes himself... The on ice results are disappointing.

A question back to you...

How many more seasons of no playoffs would suffice before it would be fair to question the merit/quality of the plan initiated 5 years ago?

1? 2? Another 5 years?

The quality prospect pool in place will only be that much stronger after this draft. Even moreso if again next year they are in the lottery... so one could keep delaying an assessment of the plan in perpetuity, pointing always to this future potential.
I would say two more years. Even if they make it next year, they're fodder.

In two years, we'll have a better idea of how well Yzerman's other draft picks besides Seider/Raymond have panned out.
 
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MNRube

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I can't watch all the prospects and stat watching doesn't do them any justice. So I have to resort to guys who get paid to follow these players. Everything I have read about Kasper has been positive after his initial struggles. Wings have one of the top rated prospects pools in the NHL, with Kasper ranked 4th best. Cossa, ASP, Danielsson all ranked higher.

As for the source, here you go:

That’s fair, but you gotta admit that your initial comment about no forwards picked after him in the 1st round doing better was questionable, at best. Yurov, Kemell, Lekkerimaki, Snuggerud, Ohgren all have been at least equally impressive. Some clearly better. But Kasper was picked high for a reason, so he deserves more time to adjust to NA hockey before we draw any conclusions.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

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What? In no universe is that true. Unless you meant 2nd-line center instead of 2nd round pick, like in the Byram trade. No contending team, no matter how stupid would trade a #3 Dman for a mere 2nd rounder. The Isles traded Leddy because he was an overpaid liability whose only use was rendered obsolete with the arrival of Dobson. Detroit essentially paid them to accept a cap dump.



That's the description if you don't understand value in a cap league. What actually happened is that Yzerman traded a 2nd (and a much smaller cap dump) for a bad contract, then turned eating half of that bad contract and taking on an additional bad contract (Sundqvist's) into a 2nd and a bottom-pairing Dman, who turned out to be pretty decent.

And again, I don't deny Yzerman admirably corrected his mistake. I've already said that trade was probably his best as Red Wings manager. My contention is that the original trade was bad, albeit minor. I'm baffled that Wings fans would fight me on this. Should I go check the WIngs board circa 2021 to see how much you all loved Leddy and his 5.5M contract?




It is not a "norm". It is what teams with cap space do to leverage said cap space, for example by turning negative assets like Leddy's contract into assets with some value. So yes, if he wanted to get something from Leddy, he "had to", because after the year Leddy had with the Wings, no team would have been stupid enough to give up assets for him at the deadline with a 5.5M pricetag attached.

Something tells me you're not a glass half full kind of guy.

Leddy is a mobile puckmoving D that had 3 straight 40 point seasons and 3 other seasons at 30+ points, and the year before Detroit picked him up he had 31 in 56 during the covid shortened season. 5.5 million for a defenseman with that kind of production is about ballpark. He was brought in to help with PP2 duties and to provide rookie Mo Seider with a veteran partner that could help him move the puck on a team devoid of puck movers.

Also, what GM trades a second pair defender for a 2nd round pick? How about Joe Sakic trading Ryan Graves for the #61 overall pick in 2021?

Nikita Zadorov was traded for a 3rd and a 5th. He plays #4 defenseman minutes.
Tanev was traded for a 2nd and a 4th due to retention.
Sean Durzi was traded for a 2nd.
Damon Severson was traded for a 3rd.
John Marino was traded for Ty Smith (bust) and a 3rd round pick.

These are just from the last two offseasons. Trade value in the offseason and trade deadline trade value are not equivalent. So yeah, second pair defensemen get moved for 2nd round picks or less.

Also why are you fixated on Yzerman eating the 2.75 mil of Leddy's cap hit (PRO RATED AT THE DEADLINE) when his contracted ended that season, and Detroit had the cap space to eat it that year?Real money Detroit probably ate a third of that. Leddy's retention didn't carry over into next year, and St. Louis needed it that season to make the trade work.
 
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Zarzh

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@OgeeOgelthorpe made a post at some point highlighting the decreased scoring in the AHL over this year? Or perhaps the last several years? I have a hard time believing it's historically low, but if you have the data to back that up.
Well it's comparable because the lack of scoring is due to overall talent, the players scoring less in the AHL score less in the NHL as well.


It's not perfect because it is based on birth year and not draft year, so Kaut or Kostin's D+1s seasons I'd put as slightly above or at least comparable to Kasper's D+2. He's with guys who can't consistently produce offense in the NHL, and late bloomers.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

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That’s fair, but you gotta admit that your initial comment about no forwards picked after him in the 1st round doing better was questionable, at best. Yurov, Kemell, Lekkerimaki, Snuggerud, Ohgren all have been at least equally impressive. Some clearly better. But Kasper was picked high for a reason, so he deserves more time to adjust to NA hockey before we draw any conclusions.

At this point the only winger of the bunch you listed I'd consider over Kasper is Yurov. Kemell had 1 more goal and 6 more points than Kasper. Snuggerud saw his production drop quite a bit from last season. Lekkerimaki had 8 more points in the SHL this year than Kasper had LAST year. Ohgren looked pretty hot in Sweden and could become a very good player, but then you have to weigh positional value. A PHYSICAL, two-way 2nd/3rd line tweener center has more value than 2nd/3rd line wingers. (which is where I expect all of the names you mentioned except Yurov to land)
 

nbwingsfan

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What? In no universe is that true. Unless you meant 2nd-line center instead of 2nd round pick, like in the Byram trade. No contending team, no matter how stupid would trade a #3 Dman for a mere 2nd rounder. The Isles traded Leddy because he was an overpaid liability whose only use was rendered obsolete with the arrival of Dobson. Detroit essentially paid them to accept a cap dump.



That's the description if you don't understand value in a cap league. What actually happened is that Yzerman traded a 2nd (and a much smaller cap dump) for a bad contract, then turned eating half of that bad contract and taking on an additional bad contract (Sundqvist's) into a 2nd and a bottom-pairing Dman, who turned out to be pretty decent.

And again, I don't deny Yzerman admirably corrected his mistake. I've already said that trade was probably his best as Red Wings manager. My contention is that the original trade was bad, albeit minor. I'm baffled that Wings fans would fight me on this. Should I go check the WIngs board circa 2021 to see how much you all loved Leddy and his 5.5M contract?



It is not a "norm". It is what teams with cap space do to leverage said cap space, for example by turning negative assets like Leddy's contract into assets with some value. So yes, if he wanted to get something from Leddy, he "had to", because after the year Leddy had with the Wings, no team would have been stupid enough to give up assets for him at the deadline with a 5.5M pricetag attached.
Tarasenko traded at 50%

Allen traded at 50%

Guentzel traded at 25%

Edmundson traded at 50%

Hanafin traded at 50%

Wennberg traded at 50%

Henrique and Carrick both traded at 50%

Mantha traded at 50%


That’s just off the top of my head for THIS deadline alone.

Yes that is very much the norm. These players weren’t retained on because they were bad with bad contracts, they were traded because teams are already close to maxxed out in their caps and can’t fit higher cap hits without retention. This is not new news.
 

SympathyForTheDevils

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Something tells me you're not a glass half full kind of guy.

Correct

Also, what GM trades a second pair defender for a 2nd round pick? How about Joe Sakic trading Ryan Graves for the #61 overall pick in 2021?

Nikita Zadorov was traded for a 3rd and a 5th. He plays #4 defenseman minutes.
Tanev was traded for a 2nd and a 4th due to retention.
Sean Durzi was traded for a 2nd.
Damon Severson was traded for a 3rd.
John Marino was traded for Ty Smith (bust) and a 3rd round pick.

I was talking about a signed Dman like Leddy, obviously a soon-to be UFA like Tanev or Severson has diminished value. I also think you have an overly-generous view of what a #3 is. Graves, Zadorov? Better than Leddy, but I wouldn't consider them #3 Dmen.

Also why are you fixated on Yzerman eating the 2.75 mil of Leddy's cap hit (PRO RATED AT THE DEADLINE) when his contracted ended that season, and Detroit had the cap space to eat it that year?

Of course Detroit has the cap space to eat it. Detroit has had the cap space to swallow any mistake that Yzerman made. That's the fun part of GMing a rebuilding team that has an owner willing to spend. It's also why none of Yzerman's mistakes have really mattered all that much. I just think it's bad form to use this fact to rationalize bad acquisitions after the fact. Let's say at next year's deadline Yzerman trades a 50% retained Justin Holl for a 4th. Does that make the Holl signing suddenly good? To me it seems like a ridiculous way to think about GMing.

Tarasenko traded at 50%

Allen traded at 50%

Guentzel traded at 25%

Edmundson traded at 50%

Hanafin traded at 50%

Wennberg traded at 50%

Henrique and Carrick both traded at 50%

Mantha traded at 50%


That’s just off the top of my head for THIS deadline alone.

Yes that is very much the norm. These players weren’t retained on because they were bad with bad contracts, they were traded because teams are already close to maxxed out in their caps and can’t fit higher cap hits without retention. This is not new news.

I think you misunderstood me. I never said retention is unique to bad contracts. Retention is a maneuver where you sacrifice cap space to artificially pump a contract's value. Any selling team with cap space (and an owner who doesn't mind paying) can and should use retention. What I'm saying is that Leddy had so little value after his year in Detroit that retention was the only way Detroit would get anything for him.
 

nbwingsfan

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Correct



I was talking about a signed Dman like Leddy, obviously a soon-to be UFA like Tanev or Severson has diminished value. I also think you have an overly-generous view of what a #3 is. Graves, Zadorov? Better than Leddy, but I wouldn't consider them #3 Dmen.



Of course Detroit has the cap space to eat it. Detroit has had the cap space to swallow any mistake that Yzerman made. That's the fun part of GMing a rebuilding team that has an owner willing to spend. It's also why none of Yzerman's mistakes have really mattered all that much. I just think it's bad form to use this fact to rationalize bad acquisitions after the fact. Let's say at next year's deadline Yzerman trades a 50% retained Justin Holl for a 4th. Does that make the Holl signing suddenly good? To me it seems like a ridiculous way to think about GMing.



I think you misunderstood me. I never said retention is unique to bad contracts. Retention is a maneuver where you sacrifice cap space to artificially pump a contract's value. Any selling team with cap space (and an owner who doesn't mind paying) can and should use retention. What I'm saying is that Leddy had so little value after his year in Detroit that retention was the only way Detroit would get anything for him.
Actually the only way to trade him was to fit him onto a teams cap because teams are already hard pressed to the cap.

Did Ottawa retain on Tarasenko to maximize his value or did they do so to actually fit him on the roster?

Same goes for Henrique/Carrick. It was by all accounts exactly who Edmonton wanted, but they needed retention to fit him.

Again, this is not new.

Your point also goes completely out the window when STL re-signed him for an$4x4M contract in a flat cap
 

SympathyForTheDevils

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Did Ottawa retain on Tarasenko to maximize his value or did they do so to actually fit him on the roster?

Those two things are the exact same thing. A contract's value is inherently linked to your ability to fit it on a roster. Every contract's value is maximized by reducing its cap hit as much as possible. Retention is not some courtesy selling teams do for buyers, it's just trading cap space for assets, coming from the idea that cap space has more value for buyers than for sellers.

Honestly I'm not sure what we're even arguing about at this point.
 

nbwingsfan

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Those two things are the exact same thing. A contract's value is inherently linked to your ability to fit it on a roster. Every contract's value is maximized by reducing its cap hit as much as possible. Retention is not some courtesy selling teams do for buyers, it's just trading cap space for assets, coming from the idea that cap space has more value for buyers than for sellers.

Honestly I'm not sure what we're even arguing about at this point.
You’re saying it’s a knock on Yzerman that he had to retain on Leddy when it’s not.

He traded a 2nd for a good D at $5.5M in which he knew he could flip him a few months later for better assets at $2.75M, which he did.

A 2nd and useless (to the Wings) $2.75M for a better 2nd, a #4D, and a quality 3rd liner who was flipped for more picks a year later.

There was no original bad trade for the Wings.
 

RedHawkDown

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I’m baffled that this thread is still going

What’s the point? Wings fans are clearly happy with Yzermans progress overall, and it’s not like we just worship management as we all hated holland with a passion

Other teams fans don’t seem to agree, that’s fine, we’ll just have to wait and see how it all turns out

I don’t really see where any of this discussion is going. It’s just been circular for the last 20 pages
 

Miller Time

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I would say two more years. Even if they make it next year, they're fodder.

In two years, we'll have a better idea of how well Yzerman's other draft picks besides Seider/Raymond have panned out.
Back to the OP (below) I'd offer that 6yrs/7offseasons is a very long leash, one that few GMs would get before facing criticism for not getting over the PO qualification hurdle.

Is this an Yzerman specific patience, or is that kind of timeframe what you think any GM starting a rebuild should get?

The team and the roster have seemingly spun their wheels (pun intended) for a bit now.

Have you already criticized it?

Or is making the playoffs next season critical?

Or does Yzerman have a longer leash due to his reputation?
 

GMR

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Back to the OP (below) I'd offer that 6yrs/7offseasons is a very long leash, one that few GMs would get before facing criticism for not getting over the PO qualification hurdle.

Is this an Yzerman specific patience, or is that kind of timeframe what you think any GM starting a rebuild should get?
It's specific to this team. Their point totals improved every season since he took over, yet they're still a bubble playoff team. What does that tell you about the roster and prospect pool he started with? Zadina and Veleno were the two best prospects when he began.

For them to contend in 2023-2024, what did you expect Yzerman to do, other than rig the lottery? Even so, everyone agrees Seider/Raymond were great picks. Yes he could have avoided a few questionable moves and trades, but there's absolutely NOTHING he could have done to make the Red Wings a contender by 2023-2024. At best, they'd be a playoff team a level below the top teams. That's basically where they're at now anyway.

Obviously if Yzerman took over the Oilers or Avalanche, his leash would be smaller because he'd have such a head start with franchise players.
 

SympathyForTheDevils

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You’re saying it’s a knock on Yzerman that he had to retain on Leddy when it’s not.

He traded a 2nd for a good D at $5.5M in which he knew he could flip him a few months later for better assets at $2.75M, which he did.

A 2nd and useless (to the Wings) $2.75M for a better 2nd, a #4D, and a quality 3rd liner who was flipped for more picks a year later.

There was no original bad trade for the Wings.

But if you completely ignore cap space use, it's basically impossible for Yzerman to ever make a mistake. Cap space is a valuable currency in a capped league, just like actual assets. You can't just ignore it. It's a completely absurd way to evaluate management.

Hey, maybe this summer Yzerman could sign Brandon Montour to a 9MM AAV contract, then trade him 50% retained for two first-round picks.

"Wow, Yzerman is such a genius, he got two first round picks for nothing!"

I get why Wings fans are so emotionally attached to Yzerman, but come on now.

Also Sundqvist, a quality 3rd liner? No. He couldn't even crack the 3rd line of one of the worst offensive teams in the league this year (same last year with the Wild). He's a perfectly fine 4th liner who was significantly overpaid when Detroit acquired him, a cap dump St Louis threw in to make the deal work.
 

norrisnick

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But if you completely ignore cap space use, it's basically impossible for Yzerman to ever make a mistake. Cap space is a valuable currency in a capped league, just like actual assets. You can't just ignore it. It's a completely absurd way to evaluate management.

Hey, maybe this summer Yzerman could sign Brandon Montour to a 9MM AAV contract, then trade him 50% retained for two first-round picks.

"Wow, Yzerman is such a genius, he got two first round picks for nothing!"

I get why Wings fans are so emotionally attached to Yzerman, but come on now.


Also Sundqvist, a quality 3rd liner? No. He couldn't even crack the 3rd line of one of the worst offensive teams in the league this year (same last year with the Wild). He's a perfectly fine 4th liner who was significantly overpaid when Detroit acquired him, a cap dump St Louis threw in to make the deal work.
Oh those silly Wing fans cheering wildly for things that I just invented in my head...
 

Miller Time

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It's specific to this team. Their point totals improved every season since he took over, yet they're still a bubble playoff team. What does that tell you about the roster and prospect pool he started with? Zadina and Veleno were the two best prospects when he began.

For them to contend in 2023-2024, what did you expect Yzerman to do, other than rig the lottery? Even so, everyone agrees Seider/Raymond were great picks. Yes he could have avoided a few questionable moves and trades, but there's absolutely NOTHING he could have done to make the Red Wings a contender by 2023-2024. At best, they'd be a playoff team a level below the top teams. That's basically where they're at now anyway.

Obviously if Yzerman took over the Oilers or Avalanche, his leash would be smaller because he'd have such a head start with franchise players.

I think he could've done better in managing the assets in place when he arrived, and in managing the roster gaps the past two seasons. Also don't think the coaching situation has been well managed.

The rebuild process this far has been pretty mediocre. Not terrible, but not particularly strong either. He's got his work cut out for him this summer.
 

GMR

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I think he could've done better in managing the assets in place when he arrived, and in managing the roster gaps the past two seasons. Also don't think the coaching situation has been well managed.

The rebuild process this far has been pretty mediocre. Not terrible, but not particularly strong either. He's got his work cut out for him this summer.
I agree that Lalonde isn’t the right guy. With a mediocre coach this team comfortably makes the playoffs. But they’re still not winning a round against New York or Florida.

You haven’t explained what different moves Yzerman should have made to have them contend this season. In 2024.
 

Pavels Dog

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Go back and look at what I posted.

One of your fellow DRW fans said no other forwards taken after Kasper in 1st round has outperformed him or “shown anything more spectacular”

That was obviously not true so I presented examples to show this. You decided to put words in my mouth twice - once about ASP & once about Yzerman.
my brother in christ you come into a "is it time to criticize yzerman" thread and call Kasper a "bad pick".
Totally, totally fair to prefer other prospects over Kasper. A bad pick? That's simply inflammatory and works against any constructive discussion.

Seider has produced some of the worst defensive analytics in the NHL. Leave him in that bad situation.
Analytics aren't exactly "produced". They are a (frequently flawed) way of attempting to describe what's happening on the ice, and even the analytics community admitted defeat in terms of their tools being able to account for the useage Seider was seeing.

A ridiculous one IMO. I won't get into the nitty-gritty of it all because I don't care to but 5 straight misses and the nearest one being in the most pathetic playoff race the East has seen in a while isn't a good record.
An 11 point improvement is an 11 point improvement, whether or not you think the playoff race was bad or not.
Also I don't know where the idea that it was "pathetic" comes from. Playoff cut-off was 1 point higher last season. And unlikely to be much higher next season. This is just what it looks like when half the league isn't focusing on tanking.

Good offensive production, downside is worst +/- on his team, 7/10 goals on the Powerplay, not sure the proportion on his 8 assists. Everyone saw him at the WJC... he's a guy that has a good chance to be a Powerplay QB, but if he doesn't quite get there, it's questionable if he is a good enough to be a meaningful contributor, and even if he does, still has question marks if he's a big time Defenseman or more like a Klingberg/Gostisbehere specialist. With current meta of 4 FWD/1 DEF alignments and First Units playing a disproportionate lion's share of any powerplay, I dunno that anybody is chomping at the bit or rocketing up him rankings at the moment.

Too early to decide if he should be moved up or down, it's tough in general to assess '23 prospects as they are scattered all over various levels around the world.
LOL. The ONE Red Wings prospect you're working super hard to contextualize and make a full analysis of is the one that's having the most impressive statistical season. What a huge, huge surprise.

“Near historic”

What does this even mean? lol. He was half a point a game in the Swedish top league. He had a good season. We will see where he goes from here. Quit the whining.
Here's a list of U19 d-men scoring more goals than ASP in the last 40 years:

That's the list.

Outproduced only by Hedman, Dahlin and Edvinsson (playing 2-5 games less).
Currently 2nd highest producing U19D in SHL History, and most productive in the last 14 years.

Named best swedish-born defenseman in SHL as an 18 year old, which is just completely unheard of.

But sure. "Good" season.
 
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